Sales @ Koyfin | 3x Founder | Business & History Nerd

The United States  was built on the American Dream. 

Individuals risked death to move to this country. They left everything behind and went somewhere that they knew they could create a better life for their children. Today the American Dream is seen as a safe job and a white picket fence. That is wrong.

They weren’t coming to own a house. 

The goal of every individual coming to America in the 18th and 19th Century was to own land and start a business on that land. Something they could carve out and call their own. They were fleeing countries that made it impossible for the average person to own land and pass it on to their children. 

Farmland has been one of the most coveted assets since contracts were created. The Midwest has some of the best farmland in the world, and when you factor in political stability and property rights nowhere else comes close. 

Farmland grows in value every year due to three trends:

     1.) Increase in productivity due to new technology

     2.) More people every year - needing more food

     3.) Less farmable land each year due to urban sprawl

Farmland is a killer asset that can change your financial future.

But it is broken. 

If you are a normal person and want to invest in farmland? Forget it. You have to be an accredited investor and be able and willing to allocate tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars to a farm. It is insane. It should not be this way. Only the richest can afford to put their money into farmland. 

Until Now. 

Introducing the Farmland Stock Exchange. We’re making it possible for anyone, not just the rich, to invest in farmland. Farmers can get value from their land without selling it all and use this capital to expand or even out the ups and downs of a farm business. 

Regular people can invest in farmland, just like the big investors. 

Join me in democratizing finance by investing where your ancestors did.

Brian S. Kearney

Everyone's panicking about fertilizer prices this week. I get it. But I think most of the hot takes are wrong.

Yes, the U.S. and Israel struck Iran. Yes, the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. Yes, urea jumped $60-$80/ton over the weekend. 

The headlines write themselves.

But here's what I'm actually seeing from the ground in central Illinois:
Most corn producers already locked in their nitrogen. This is March — not exactly a surprise that planting season is coming. 

The farmers who run tight operations secured inputs weeks or months ago. The ones getting caught flat-footed weren't caught by a war. They were caught by poor planning.

We've seen this movie before. Russia invades Ukraine in 2022 — fertilizer prices triple, everyone screams about food shortages, and within 18 months the market corrects itself. Markets overshoot on fear. They always do. Traders and analysts love a worst-case scenario because it gets clicks and moves contracts.

A few things the panic crowd is ignoring: Trump said 4-5 weeks. Even if it's longer, the Strait doesn't need to fully reopen for prices to stabilize — just enough shipping resumption and insurance coverage to calm the market. 

The U.S. doesn't import much fertilizer directly from Iran. Our biggest suppliers are Russia and Qatar, and alternative shipping routes exist. Domestic nitrogen production still covers a significant chunk of U.S. needs. And the market was already pricing in geopolitical risk before a single missile launched.

Could prices go higher short-term? Absolutely. Could this become a prolonged crisis? Sure, if the strait stays closed for months. But the most likely outcome is a sharp spike, a lot of breathless coverage, and a gradual pullback once shipping resumes — just like every other supply shock in recent memory.

The real story isn't the war. It's that American agriculture has a structural dependency on just-in-time global supply chains with zero strategic reserves. That's the conversation worth having. Not whether urea is up $80 this week.

If you're a farmer — don't panic-buy at the top. Talk to your supplier, understand your position, and make decisions based on your operation, not cable news. 

If you're an investor in farmland or ag — zoom out. Short-term input spikes don't change the long-term fundamentals of productive ground.

The best operators don't react to headlines. They plan ahead of them.

By Day: I collaborate with brilliant minds in data science to deliver Bayesian solutions. My work helps organizations make smarter, data-driven decisions - bridging the gap between theory and practical application.

By Night (and sometimes by day too): I bring comedy to folks in data and analytics - because this subject can definitely use some more humor!

I'm always open to connecting. I love exchanging stories about analytics, learning from others, and hearing about interesting challenges. Plus, I'll tell you an award winning statistics joke!

Evan Wimpey

The real winner of last night's Super Bowl?

Bayesian Inference. 

Here's 2 reasons why, but I'm sure there are more. 

Reason 1: A Seattle Seahawk has been a guest on the Learn Bayes Stats podcast. A New England Patriot has NOT (I don't think, I haven't listened to every episode, but kudos to Alexandre Andorra and Patrick Ward) 

"but, but, but Evan" you protest, "the REAL Super Bowl is the commercials!"

Yep. And Bayes won those too. 

Reason 2: Here's a snippet from the OpenAI Codex commercial, where Bayes' formula makes a national TV apperance. Notice what they didn't include? A formula for p-values (I don't think, I don't know what it would look like and they did actually include a bunch of complicated math and code...)

Enjoy the offseason Frequentists. See you next season.

Data Analytics | Data Comedian | Director @ PyMC Labs

How to explain Bayesian inference to a non-Bayesian sports fan:

Before the season starts, the teams get ranked. 

How?? We haven't even seen them play?!? 

Well, we don't live in a vacuum. We know stuff. We have a good idea which teams will be good, usually. Some we are confident (2026 Los Angeles Dodgers or 2026 Colorado Rockies), some we have a lot of questions (2026 Atlanta Braves). This is our 'prior'. 

Then the season starts, and teams start playing. We collect data. We learn more about who is better and who is worse. After week 1, we still don't know THAT much. And our preseason ranking is probably more important than whatever the team did in 1 week. 

But the season goes on. We collect more and more data. And the more data we have from the season, the less we rely on the preseason rankings. 

More data → less reliance on priors → more confidence
Less data → more reliance on priors → more uncertainty

Sports fans are natural Bayesians. 

*I've never thought about this before, but the D1 Baseball podcast today talked about 'poll inertia' in the early season, and it was a perfect analog to Bayesian updating.  

#sports #Bayes

Happy #vennsday

I can't top this gem (unless I perhaps just added pants to the tech founder. Or the duck. That'd be funny.)

your mom @ tl;dv (meeting ai for orgs) 💙

Have you already failed all your New Year's resolutions?

No worries, 2.0 is released today. Happy Lunar New Year! 

🐎 🎆 🥟

Happy #vennsday y'all.

Used to be hard for a comedian to get an agent. 

But now we can just buy a few tokens and make our own.

I'm just glad my AI agent doesn't take 10%.

My ChatGPT Plus subscription finally paid for itself. 

I've used it for months to write code, spell check emails, and add emojis to LinkedIn posts 🚀 🚀 🚀  

But today I used it to troubleshoot my dryer. 

In years past, I would've ask Google what that strange sound was. And watched YouTube videos. And seen reddit posts. But they would all be about slightly different sounds and slightly different models. So I would've called a technician and waited days and paid hundreds. 

Today ChatGPT let me troubleshoot over voice while I was actively working on it. About 10 minutes to take the thing apart, remove the drum, and diagnose the problem (I ain't a lick handy, 8.5 of those minutes were for one of those damn pop-screws)

Parts are on the way. I'm enjoying my post-mechanical-diagnosis-euphoria-and-beer. In 2-3 business days ChatGPT will help me put everything back together. 

AI is gonna replace all of us white collar jerks. Glad that it is replacing blue collar folks too. 

#AI #dryers

ChatGPT is working overtime today writing a bunch of Valentine's poems.

Got a sweetheart? Save a few tokens and just copy/paste this one I wrote for my wife:

My love for you is vast and grand,
Like synergy shared across all the land.

You light up my world like a spectacular flash,
You make my heart pause like it saw an —

My sweetie, my lovely, my honey sweetie pie,
I won't rhyme your name (to protect PII).

So filling and pure to express my love through the art,
Odd that it started when I put "GPT Pro" in my cart.

So please just answer one more question from me:
.......agree?

taplio

The Battle

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Evan Wimpey

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taplio

The Battle

Brian S. Kearney

Evan Wimpey

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Posts

Engagements

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Performance Score.css-goub6s{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-md);font-weight:500;color:var(--chakra-colors-gray-600);display:block;margin-top:var(--chakra-space-1);}Brian S. Kearney's LinkedIn Performance

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