Charles E. Gaudet II

Most 6-, 7- and 8-figure founders share the same frustration:
"I built something successful… but I can't step away. I'm trapped inside my own company."

That's the Founder's Trap™ - and I've spent 16+ years helping entrepreneurs escape it.

The International Business Times named me "The Go-To Business Coach for 7 and 8-Figure Entrepreneurs" and MSN calls me "the leading coach to 8 and 9 figure CEOs." 

But what matters most isn't what the press says - it's what I've helped my clients achieve.  A few client highlights:

→ $250k a year to $250k every 3 weeks
→ $1M to $24.1M in 3 years
→ $1.4M in revenue to a $45M valuation (and an exit)

And countless others who escaped the grind and created more predictability in their revenue (https://predictableprofits.com/testimonials/ ) 

Recognition:

✅ #1 Marketing & Sales Thought Leader 2025 – DMNews
✅ "The CEO Whisperer" – Yahoo Finance
✅ "The leading coach to 8 and 9 figure CEOs" – MSN
✅ Certificate of Leadership Development – U.S. Army War College (nominated and selected)
✅ "10 Innovative CEOs to Follow" – CEO Weekly
✅ "Top 20 Business Experts to Follow" – Grit Daily
✅ "Top 50 Industry Influencers" – American Geniuses
✅ "Top 15 Business Coaches" – Disrupt Magazine
✅ SUCCESS Magazine Emerging Entrepreneur Finalist
✅ Ernst & Young: "One of the Best Seed Stage Companies" (and selected as such by VentureOne)

Featured in Forbes, Inc., Entrepreneur Magazine, Fox Business, The Globe and Mail, Yahoo Finance, Thrive Global, and 100+ other publications worldwide.

My story: Entrepreneur since age 4. First multi-million dollar company at 24. Today I lead Predictable Profits - the premier coaching company for 7-, 8-, and 9-figure CEOs who are ready to scale without sacrificing their health, family, or sanity.

➡️ Author: "The Predictable Profits Playbook"
➡️ Podcast: Beyond 7-Figures (named a Top CEO Podcast by Inc. Magazine)
➡️ 3x State Wrestling Champion | 2x Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Gold Medalist

The discipline that builds champions on the mat is the same discipline required to scale a company.

Ready to escape the Founder's Trap?

✉️ DM me "SCALE" or visit PredictableProfits.com
🔈 For keynote and other speaking opportunities, visit CharlesGaudet.com

CEO & Founder | Business Coach for 7 & 8 Figure Companies

Predictable Profits is an international network of premium business coaches and strategists for 7- & 8- figure entrepreneurs who seek better sales and revenue systems for more predictability, profitability, and scalability in any economy.  

The company follows The Predictable Profits Methodology created in 2010, which has helped thousands of businesses in over 55 industries scale faster.

Advice from our team is featured on Fox Business, Forbes, Inc., Success, Entrepreneur, and countless other media channels around the world.

See what countless others have said about their experience with us here: https://predictableprofits.com/testimonials/

Charles II

97% of founder-led businesses never break $3M.

I've worked with 1,000+ founder-led businesses.

The pattern is clear: Those who depend on referrals hit a ceiling and stall out.

Here's the brutal math:

When your pipeline depends on someone else's conversation, you can't scale.

You can't hire confidently. You can't forecast accurately. You can't plan growth.

Because you have no control over when the next referral walks through the door.

**The excuse I hear most?**

"We're really good at what we do. Our clients love us. We don't need to market."

Let me translate that: "Hope is our lead generation strategy."

**Here's what nobody wants to admit:**

Being excellent at delivery doesn't build a pipeline. It creates satisfied clients.

Those are two completely different things.

You can be the best in your industry and still be trapped at $2.8M because you're waiting for referrals instead of creating systematic demand.

**The companies that break through?**

They don't abandon referrals. They just stop depending on them.

They build systems to:
1.  create demand, 
2. capture demand, and 
3. nurture demand 

...whether or not anyone's talking about them at a cocktail party.

They understand this formula:

**Predictable input = Predictable output**

Random referrals = Random revenue  
Systematic demand = Systematic growth

**So here's my question:**

What percentage of your revenue comes from referrals right now?

And if referrals stopped tomorrow, how long would your business survive?

Be honest... because the answer tells you everything about whether you have a business or just really good luck.

“The Go-To Business Coach for 7 & 8 Figure Entrepreneurs” (IBT) | “The CEO Whisperer” (Yahoo Finance) | Author, Podcast Host & Speaker

Most business owners think AI disruption is coming.

It’s not.

It already happened.

The problem is it didn’t arrive like a freight train.

It arrived like fog.

Quiet. Gradual. Easy to ignore.

Your leads didn’t “dry up.”

AI overviews started showing answers (instead of your website) and buyers just started asking different questions… to something that isn’t you.

AI is already shaping:
• who gets discovered
• who gets shortlisted
• who gets trusted
• who never even gets considered

Most founders still think disruption looks like a new competitor.

Nope.

It looks like invisibility.

This year and the years ahead, AI won’t just automate tasks.

It will mediate demand.

Meaning:
If AI doesn’t understand your business, your offer, your proof, your outcomes, your differentiation… you don’t exist in the buyer’s decision process.

And no amount of hustle fixes that.

Here’s the fork in the road.

For founders who understand what’s happening:
- This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
- AI becomes leverage.
- Distribution.
- Authority at scale.
- Predictable demand without chasing it.

For founders who ignore it:
- It becomes death by confusion.
- Lower conversion.
- Longer sales cycles.
- More “ghosting.”
- More price pressure.
- More effort for worse results.

Same market.
Same economy.

Wildly different outcomes.

AI won’t replace great businesses.

But it will replace businesses that fail to adapt how they’re found, framed, and trusted.

This isn’t about tools.

It’s about strategy.

And it’s why my work as a business coach is increasingly about helping founders see what they can’t yet see.

(The link to the article can be found in the comments below.)

Over the last few weeks, I've been featured in the media and on podcasts for a bold prediction about the future of sales.

At first glance, I was told that I was "crazy."

Then again, I've been called crazy for most of my career (that's when I really know that I'm onto something.)

But I would ask you to suspect judgment and pay attention because most companies are completely unprepared for what's already happening to the buyer's journey.

Here's what I mean:
Between January and November of last year, we saw an estimated 60% drop in organic traffic for many businesses. 

Why? Because AI-generated search overviews prioritize answers over taking you to a website. 

And this AI-forward buyer's journey is growing FAST!

Giving your buyers curated answers, frameworks, pricing context, and even vendor red flags.

This is making a MAJOR impact on how your buyers make decisions.

And the data shows that by the time a buyer reaches out to talk to a human, they've already narrowed it down to 2-3 options. The decision is 80-100% made before you ever get a chance to have a conversation.

(I have the data to prove it!)

This isn't coming. It's here. Right now!

And this year? It's only going to accelerate.

This was the main topic of our conversation with our coaching clients during yesterday's Board of Directors meeting.

I cannot stress this enough.

The companies that understand this shift - that AI is becoming the front door to decision-making - will have an outsized advantage. 

Those who keep relying on the old playbook of expecting the sales rep to "sell" and "pitch" will severely struggle.

I'm not saying this to be dramatic. I'm saying it because I'm watching it happen in real time.

The window to adapt is short - maybe 18-24 months before the gap becomes impossible to close.

So my question for you: are you set up for the AI-forward buyers' journey? 

If you're not sure, send me a message or drop me a comment. It's time to find out.

I stopped trying to close deals in DMs.

Started helping instead.

Results quadrupled.

Here's what I learned: 
Nobody wakes up thinking "I hope someone pitches me today."

But they do wake up with problems. Questions. Challenges they can't solve alone.

So I changed the game.

**Before:**
- Lead with credentials
- Push for the close
- Track conversion rates
- Wonder why people ghost

**After:**
- Lead with insight
- Ask better questions
- Solve one problem for free
- Let them ask about working together

The shift isn't about being "nice." 
It's about being smart.

When you help first, three things happen:

1. **You disarm their skepticism** - They expected a pitch. You gave them value instead.

2. **You demonstrate competence** - Talk is cheap. Solving their actual problem proves you know your shit.

3. **You create reciprocity** - Humans are wired to return favors. Help them, and they'll want to help you.

Last month, I spent 20 minutes on a DM conversation helping a founder fix their sales qualification process.

Didn't pitch. Didn't ask for a call. Just solved the problem.

Two weeks later, he joined our Board of Directors program.

$30K deal. Zero sales pressure.

Because sales became a side effect of being genuinely useful.

**Here's the truth most coaches won't tell you:**

If your offer is strong and your help is real, you don't need to pitch.

You just need to show up, add value, and let them connect the dots.

The people who need what you offer will ask.

The ones who don't? You saved yourself a shitty sales call.

---

**What's your take?**

Are you still leading with pitches, or have you shifted to leading with help?

And if you've made the shift, what changed in your results?

---

**P.S.** This isn't about giving away everything for free. It's about strategically demonstrating value to the right people. There's a massive difference.  

I'm holding a workshop giving away the exact framework and process we use every day... (plus a few secrets I don't talk about here).  

Comment "LEADS" and I'll send you the details.

You have to earn your right to scale...

...and most companies aren't ready.

If you're stuck at $1-3M, scaling is the LAST thing you should do.

Here's why: You don't have a growth problem. You have a founder dependency problem.

80% of your leads = referrals (no systematic marketing)
70% of your deals = you close them personally  
100% of important decisions = require your approval

Scaling this? You're just digging yourself deeper into the trap.

I've watched 1,000+ founders try to "push through" this stage. Know what happens?

→ They hire more people (who can't make decisions without them)
→ They work MORE hours (65+ per week becomes 75+)
→ They burn out and sell for pennies (or worse, shut down)

The ones who break through? They stop scaling and start SYSTEMATIZING.

They build:
→ Lead generation that works without networking
→ Sales processes teams can execute  
→ Operations that run when they're on vacation

Then (and only then) they scale.

Result? Predictable month-after-month growth without working longer hours.

That's why the International Business Times said I am: "...the expert that many seven and eight-figure CEOs turn to when they need to bring predictability (hence their name) to their sales organization."

If you're grinding at $1-3M, you don't need motivation. You need the Founder's Trap escape plan.

Been helping founders do this for 16 years. Happy to show you how.

Drop "TRAP" in comments if you want a lead strategy to get you started.

I asked a $4M founder last week: "What's actually breaking in your business right now?"

He listed 12 things.

Then I asked: "Which ONE is costing you the most revenue?"

Long pause.

"I don't know. They all seem urgent."

Here's what I've learned after working with 1,000+ CEOs:

Your business isn't breaking in 12 places. It's breaking in one of three.

The Three Breaking Points:

1. Lead Gen - You can't predict when the next qualified lead shows up. You're stuck in "hope marketing" mode, praying referrals keep coming.

2. Conversion - Deals only close when YOU show up. Your team can't seal it without you in the room. That's not a sales process. That's founder dependency.

3. Scaling - Quality falls apart the second you step away. You're approving everything because "no one does it like I do." Which means you can't scale.

Most founders try to fix all three at once.

That's the fastest way to burn out and change nothing.

The breakthrough happens when you pick ONE, fix it completely, then move to the next.

Here's my question for you:
If you're brutally honest with yourself, which of these three is actually costing you the most right now?

And what's the ONE thing keeping you from fixing it?

Drop it in the comments.

Vicente Valencia

🤔 Risk-Averse Renegade 💪 | Helping others take the leap of faith | Entrepreneur & Investor | Personal Growth, Business. 🐭 Join the free rat race 🐭

If you need PPP Advice or Training that you WON'T get from the World Bank go to: https://vicentevalencia.com.

I love infrastructure delivery and I have good reasons for that. 

I still remember my third day working in PPPs, around 20 years ago. 

I was put on a Board meeting, and my boss told the rest of the board members that "I was the new PPP advisor". 

Not bad for the third day. 

I didn't know what a PPP was, nor even a what a Board was, or shareholders, or construction contracts, or back-to-backs... and there I was. 

Now, after having tendered, managed, delivered, refinanced, sold, a few PPPs in Europe, North America and New Zealand, as a COO, CEO and Board Member, I can tell you many more stories... some of them, "terror stories": extra costs, claims, delays, incompetence, bad clients, terrible contractors, evil designers, etc. 

But I can also tell you many great stories about people. 

Happy people enjoying a new and fantastic piece of infrastructure. 

These assets have transformed for the better lives, cities and even countries. 

I’ll never forget the 15 December 2012, when I opened as the COO, the A30 Project in Montreal. 

I put my beautiful and very patient Spanish wife on a toll both to enjoy. 

Many nights working at night and she supported me all the way long, and I wanted her to live the experience. 

During a break to have diner – it was a long day – she told me that users thanked her saying “Gracias”. 
I’ll never forget the joy and happiness of thousands of people that wanted to cross the bridges that we built.
 
This is the power of great infrastructure, properly delivered. 

This is why, I love that business. 

I also have two secret passions: Real Estate Investing, and a popular newsletter. Everyday, I send a free tip about business, project management, investment, motivation and personal growth. All this comes with Spanish spice. Subscribe, join other +2k free minds and enjoy.

Co-Founder and Investor

Love the challenges, the design and changing spaces and cities for the better. 

We give a second opportunity to old buildings and houses creating unique homes.

Most PPP projects don’t fail because of construction issues.
Or financing.
Or KPIs.

They fail because people ignore the basics.
The fundamentals.

The principles nobody teaches you in those “PPP certifications.”
The laws I’ve learned after 20 years sitting on all four sides of the table:
government, contractor, equity, and operator.

So here they are.
The 15 Commandments of the PPP Movement.
The no-BS rules that separate a bankable project…
from a headline on the front page of the newspaper.

Swipe.

Learn them.

Break them at your own risk.

_
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PPP Executioner | Providing Clarity to PPP Professionals, Agencies and Investors | Join the PPP MOVEMENT for Infra tips and stories

The 15 Commandments of the PPP Movement

Most governments say they want world-class infrastructure.
But then they panic when world-class people show up.
The Ministry of Transport of Quebec didn’t.
They opened the door.
To foreigners.
To competition.
To courage.
The result?
A-30 Expressway. In my modest opinion, one of the most successful PPPs in North America.
Delivered on time. 
On budget. 
With pride.
I was there.
And I still remember the chaos, the cold, and that night before opening when we almost forgot to put live the tolling system.
Today's article is about courage.
Not the PowerPoint kind. 
The real one.

_
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#Leadership #PPP #Infrastructure #Courage #ProjectManagement #PublicPrivatePartnerships #Canada #Construction

View newsletter: PPP & Real Estate stories

Most governments say they want world-class infrastructure. But few have the guts to bring in world-class people. But the Ministry of Transport of Queb

Open article: Dark and Cold by Vicente Valencia • 2 min read

Do you want cheap infrastructure?
Then stop building one-offs.
Create a pipeline.
A few weeks ago someone told me:
“Madrid delivered the cheapest tunnels in the world… how did they do it?”

I did not know if that was true... but my answer was simple:

Do you know how many TBMs were working in Madrid at the same time?

For more than 10 years, Madrid had:
7–8 tunnel boring machines
Working almost continuously
Same operators
Same ground
Same learning curve... improving every single day

Mobilization costs? Almost zero.
Training? Zero.
Excuses? Zero.

The exact opposite of how most countries operate.

Because here’s the truth:
Repetition creates mastery.
Mastery creates confidence.
Confidence creates better, faster, safer and cheaper projects.

Madrid didn’t wait for “perfect timing” or “market conditions.”
They committed to building.
Pipeline. After pipeline. After pipeline.

Results?
They retained experts
They attracted capital and innovation
They built a competitive industry

You want better infrastructure?
You want lower prices?
You want to stop bleeding public money?
Create a pipeline.

Or keep paying the “one-off” stupidity tax.

Is your country building a pipeline? Or killing one?

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#infrastructure #construction #megaprojects #PPP #tunneling #publicpolicy

It happens a few weeks ago. “Tell me about Madrid and Spain, how do you do it? I heard a business case that Madrid has been able to deliver the cheape

Open article: How to build infrastructure faster and cheaper by Vicente Valencia • 2 min read

How to build infrastructure faster and cheaper

Most people say: “It’s too small for a PPP.”

They’re wrong.
In fact, this one proves size doesn’t matter... clarity and discipline do.

When Nairobi (and Kenya’s counties) decided to overhaul street-lighting through a PPP, they weren’t chasing headlines. 
They were chasing reliability, cost-efficiency and smart governance.
Here’s why the “small” project deserves a place in the PPP Hall of Fame... and why you should be paying attention.

See all the change it brought with only 23 million US dollars. 

_
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#PPP #Kenya #Africa #UrbanInfra #StreetLighting #SmartCities #ValueForMoney #RiskManagement #Infrastructure

Most people say: “It’s too small for a PPP.” They’re wrong. In fact, this one might be your best lesson yet. In Eldoret, Kenya, the local government p

Open article: The Street Lights Nobody Believed Could Be a PPP by Vicente Valencia • 2 min read

The Street Lights Nobody Believed Could Be a PPP

A $165 million PPP success story.
And the person who built it is now unemployed.

Imagine this. 

A $165 million Education PPP.
Funded by USAID.
Implemented in Sindh, Pakistan.
State-of-the-art schools.
A pioneering EMO (Education Management Organization) model.
A PPP toolkit still used today.
And yet…
The person who led the entire reform for a decade is now struggling to find work.

No headlines.
No recognition.
No consulting contracts.
No “thought leadership” invitations.

Meanwhile, governments keep paying millions to the usual suspects:
 - Big logos.
 - Shiny PowerPoints.
 - Generic frameworks.
 - Minimal local impact.

Look. 
This is why I've learnt after 20 years doing this. 

PPP success doesn’t come from branding.
It comes from people who actually built the system.
And most of them are invisible.

Eliminate PPPs if you want.
Any infrastructure project. 

Engineers, commercial managers, that guy that had the idea that save millions... 

In this case, it's the Director of the PPP NODE in Sindh:
- Designed an indigenous EMO model
- Launched one of the only unsolicited PPPs in Pakistan
- Built a full PPP guide for Education
- Led reform for 10 years

Yet today, he’s told:
“You’re not technical enough.”
“You’re not financial enough.”
“You’re not legal enough.”

As if one human being is supposed to be three consulting firms in one.
Come on!

Look. PPP contracts have:
 • Technical complexity
 • Financial structuring
 • Legal architecture

No serious project has ever been delivered by a single “unicorn expert.”
Mega projects and PPPs are built by teams.
But careers are judged like solo sports.

And here it is what I find like the real scandal:
Governments spend millions on advisory fees…
While the people who actually know how to make PPPs work are sidelined, underused, and undervalued.

We don’t have a talent shortage.
We have a recognition failure.

If you’re a PPP professional who has:
 • Built something real
 • Led reform
 • Delivered impact
 • And still feels invisible

You’re not alone.
And you’re not the problem.
The system is.

If you’ve built real impact and still feel invisible — speak up.
Comment “REAL” if you believe experience should matter more than logos.
Share this so the right people start paying attention.

_
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#RealPPPExperts #BuiltNotBranded #ImplementationMatters #ConsultingIndustry #AdvisoryBubble #PublicMoney #ProcurementFailure #InvisibleLeaders #Unrecognized #WastedTalent #PublicPrivatePartnership #PPPProjects #InfrastructureReform

Most PPP evaluation processes have one thing in common:
They are way too complicated.
50 scoring criteria.
Subjective weighting.
Weeks of debate.
Appeals, disputes, delays…

And in the end?
Nobody understands why that bidder won.

A PPP evaluation is not a research paper.
It’s a decision that will impact your country for 25–40 years.

So why does the process look like a maze instead of a strategy?

Today I’m breaking down the 3 steps that actually bring:
Faster procurement
Clear accountability
Better value for taxpayers
Stronger competition
Less drama

Let me know if you have seen any of this. 

_
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How to design PPP Evaluations

Most PPP evaluations look like this:
50 scoring criteria.
Subjective weighting.
Ambiguous definitions.
Committees arguing for months.

And in the end…
nobody knows why the winner won.

Look. 
A PPP evaluation isn’t / shouldn't be a science fair.
It’s a decision that will impact a country for 25–40 years.

So why do we keep making it so complicated?

So... How to design the perfect PPP evaluation
 → Faster
 → Fairer
 → Better value for money
 → Less drama

My proposal is simple:
Select only the top consortia
Pass/fail minimum technical outcomes
Award on price + lifecycle + risk

That’s it.
Three steps.
No noise.

_
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Most PPP evaluations are designed by committees obsessed with checking boxes. Not with selecting the best partner. The result? Overcomplicated scoring

Open article: Stop Overthinking PPP Evaluations — Do This Instead by Vicente Valencia • 2 min read

Stop Overthinking PPP Evaluations — Do This Instead

In Latin America, a PPP that only increases +20% in cost is considered a success.

Yeah... 

Why does this keep happening?

Here are the usual suspects:
Half-baked projects rushed to procurement
Unrealistic bids designed to win… then renegotiate
Weak risk allocation and technical definition
Fiscal risks buried under future budgets

Result?
PPP prices go up, competition goes down, trust goes out the window.

I just broke down the real causes of the “+20% trap” and what agencies must do to stop it.

If we want PPPs to deliver real value.

We must stop pretending that a cheap bid today is cheap forever.

_
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Many people challenge my preferred RFP strategy for PPPs: “Pre-qualify strong consortia, set a minimum technical pass/fail, and award to the best NPV 

Open article: When +20% Is the Floor — The Latin American PPP Trap by Vicente Valencia • 2 min read

When +20% Is the Floor — The Latin American PPP Trap

January 5th.
Kids in Spain are waiting for the Three Wise Men.
Meanwhile, in Australia, a bridge collapses into the river.
Catastrophe has no calendar.

Tasman Bridge, Hobart — 1975.
A bulk carrier hits a pier.
The structure fails.
Cars fall into the void without ever seeing it.
Twelve lives lost.
A city cut in half for more than two years.

Nobody thought a disaster would arrive that night.
Because we humans believe the worst always happens Monday at 9 am…
…and only when everyone is in the office.

Wrong.

Mega-projects fail at the worst possible moment:
holidays,
evenings,
when teams are home with family,
when communications are messy and slow.

Every project needs a Crisis Management Plan.
Not because a client demands it, but because chaos doesn’t wait for approvals.

Who speaks?
Who acts?
What gets shut down?
Who protects the reputation when the headlines are brutal?

If these answers aren’t rehearsed…
...the disaster won’t just be physical.

Infrastructure, and in particular, big projects, doesn’t forgive naivety.
It doesn’t care about celebrations, weekends, or candy for children.

Be ready.

Always.

_
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 #Infrastructure #PPPs #ProjectManagement #RiskManagement #CrisisManagement #Construction #Engineering #LessonsLearned #MegaProjects #PublicSafety #PMO

January 5th. In Spain and many parts of the world, kids go to sleep excited because the Three Wise Men are coming with toys. Meanwhile… in Australia… 

Open article: Tragic event on January 5 by Vicente Valencia • 2 min read

In Latin America, PPPs that only become 20% more expensive are considered a success.
Yes, you read that right.
Why do so many projects go from “cheapest bid” to most expensive outcome?

Because when you:
Rush the RFP
Under-design the project
Transfer risks blindly
Reward the lowest fantasy number
…you don’t get value for money.

You get a renegotiation.

And citizens always pay.

Today I’m breaking down the real reasons why +20% is just the starting point in Latin-American PPPs and what governments must change if they want the best players to stay in the game.

Comment below if you have seen any of this. 

#PublicPrivatePartnerships #PPPs #Infrastructure #Megaprojects #ProjectFinance #GovernmentInfrastructure #PublicProcurement #RiskManagement #ValueForMoney #LatinAmerica #LatAmInfrastructure #StrategicThinking #InfrastructureInvestment #Leadership #Governance

The 20% Latin American Trap in PPP

In Latin America, more than 70% of transport PPPs are renegotiated... often within the first year.

And +20% cost creep?
That’s the floor, not the ceiling.

So let me ask you this...

What is the #1 root cause of PPP price blowouts in the region?

Comment below if your answer is “all of the above”

#PublicPrivatePartnerships #PPPs #Infrastructure #Megaprojects #ProjectFinance #GovernmentInfrastructure #PublicProcurement #RiskManagement #ValueForMoney #LatinAmerica #LatAmInfrastructure #StrategicThinking #InfrastructureInvestment #Leadership #Governance

What is the #1 root cause of PPP price blowouts in the region?

Conviene leer este post. Se va a entender mucho de las oportunidades para mejorar procesos de contratación en América Latina.

Aunque este reporte del BID es de 2017, sus conclusiones siguen siendo vigentes para los proyectos de infraestructura en América Latina.

La región enfrenta una brecha de inversión gigantesca, pero el verdadero desafío no es solo invertir más, sino invertir mejor. La evidencia es clara: los conflictos en infraestructura no son eventos fortuitos; son el resultado de fallas estructurales de gobernanza, planeación y relacionamiento social.

El análisis del BID muestra que la raíz del conflicto está menos en lo técnico y más en lo institucional:
	•	Planeación deficiente y decisiones “aguas abajo”.
	•	Procesos de consulta formales pero poco sustantivos.
	•	Falta de transparencia y expectativas mal gestionadas.
	•	Beneficios comunitarios percibidos como insuficientes o injustos.

El impacto es profundo: retrasos de varios años, sobrecostos cercanos al 70%, cancelaciones de proyectos y un daño reputacional que afecta no solo a empresas, sino a países completos como destinos de inversión.

Esto conecta con una realidad más reciente: como señala Vicente Valencia , cerca del 70% de los proyectos de transporte APP en la región han sido renegociados, con una suerte de “rule of thumb” de 20% de sobrecosto. La renegociación se ha vuelto la norma, no la excepción. (Y aún así aportan valor por dinero)

El contraste con Europa es revelador. El estudio comparativo de Jörg Christen sobre APP en Alemania muestra resultados casi opuestos: menores costos de construcción, plazos más cortos, reducciones significativas en costos de ciclo de vida y mayor satisfacción de gobiernos y comunidades. Su conclusión es contundente: la aproximación de ciclo de vida alinea incentivos y corrige, en la práctica, las debilidades de los contratos incompletos de largo plazo.

La diferencia entre América Latina y Alemania no es conceptual —sabemos qué hacer— sino de ejecución institucional:
	•	Planeamos con menor profundidad.
	•	Construimos confianza de forma volátil, con señales de política contradictorias.
	•	No hemos consolidado una gobernanza efectiva a nivel territorial, especialmente con autoridades locales y comunidades.

Como ya advertía el BID, la hoja de ruta sigue siendo la misma: Planeación, Confianza y Gobernanza.

👉 ¿Es un problema de capacidades, de incentivos, o de economía política?
👉 ¿Cuáles lecciones de la experiencia alemana (y global) son realmente transferibles a América Latina y cuáles no?


#Infraestructura #APP #PPP #Gobernanza #GestiónDeRiesgos #Planeación #Sostenibilidad #AméricaLatina #Alemania

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The Battle

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taplio

The Battle

Charles II

Vicente Valencia

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Likes

Performance Score.css-goub6s{font-size:var(--chakra-fontSizes-md);font-weight:500;color:var(--chakra-colors-gray-600);display:block;margin-top:var(--chakra-space-1);}Charles II's LinkedIn Performance

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