If you're a PE investor or executive, you know the job: to make the investment thesis happen. Sounds straightforward. But it’s hard (especially nowadays). 

And usually, it's not the deal structure or market forces that get you. It's the people stuff:

• Leaders who aren’t moving at the pace of PE
• Talent gaps you acted on 18 months too late
• Strategy decks that never translate to execution
• Boards and management firing past each other

If you know, you know. 

I'm Dan. I've spent nearly two decades in PE—as an investor at a top-decile firm, as a portfolio company CEO/operator, and as an advisor to dozens of PE-backed companies. I’ve played across the positions. 

These days, I help PE-backed companies get 3 things right: 

→ Value Creation READINESS – Pre-close org and leadership diligence. Does a target actually have the leadership, talent, and culture to deliver your thesis?

→ Value Creation PLANNING – Getting the board and ELT aligned on the value creation plan, usually within the first 100 days post-acquisition.

→ Value Creation LEADERSHIP – Executive assessment and leadership development to ensure you have leaders who can deliver. 

Beyond advisory work: 

→  Wrote Winning Moves, the bestselling playbook on PE value creation
→  Co-founded Ascend, a leadership accelerator for execs in PE-backed companies
→  Teach a first-of-its-kind course on value creation at Chicago Booth
→  Guest lectured at Kellogg, Haas, MIT, HBS, and GSB
→  Now living that sweet suburban dad life in Cincy after years in SF and Chicago

Want to see how I think about this stuff?

•  Grab a copy of Winning Moves @ Amazon
•  Learn about our PE executive accelerator @ ascendforleaders.com 
•  Follow me for perspectives on value creation, leadership, and pizza

Dan Cremons

15 landmines that blow up first-time PE-backed CEOs. 

I've worked with dozens of first-time CEOs.
Been one myself.
Stepped on most of these landmines.

• Trying to be everyone's friend
• Being blind to your blind spots
• Overrelying on authority to lead
• Pretending you have it all figured out
• Not picking up on subtle board clues
• Getting stuck within the "CEO bubble"
• Failing to ally with and use your board
• Sitting on important decisions too long
• Focusing too heavily on the short-term 
• Forgetting your people are watching you
• Failing to focus on what's most important
• Rushing critical hires / slow-pedaling fires
• Failing to get your leadership team aligned
• Ignoring the political dynamics around you
• Giving underperformers too many chances

What else?

undefined undefined

Ascend

Winning Moves

Ascend - New

Operator's Edge

Grab a copy here → https://www.ascendforleaders.com/the-operators-edge-sign-up

Former PE Investor & CEO  //  Current PE Advisor  //  Author  //  𝘏𝘦𝘭𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘮𝘣𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘗𝘌-𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘦𝘥 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯

Fellow PE professionals and execs: 

Wondering whether a target acquisition has the leadership and talent to make your investment thesis a reality? 

Not sure whether you have the right leaders in critical portfolio company roles?

Tired of losing time and momentum when a recently acquired company gets off to a slow start post-acquisition?

I get it. I’ve been in your shoes as a PE investor and CEO/CXO myself. 13+ amazing years with an innovative & top-performing MM PE firm.

Early on in my PE career, I learned the hard way that neglecting to (1) perform org due diligence, (2) get the right team onto the field quickly post-closing, (3) align on a clear value creation plan had costly consequences.  

🚫 Losing precious time
🚫 Putting growth & value creation at risk
🚫 Leaving returns on the table

But over years of learning from the best and lots of trial-and-error as a PE ops professional & executive, I figured out a thing or two about: 

→ How to size up a target’s leadership & value creation readiness BEFORE investing.
→ How to ensure you have the right leaders in the most critical port-co roles
→ How to get newly-acquired companies off to a strong start in the First 100. 

In 2021, I spun out of an in-house PE role so I could help more PE firms and their portfolio companies 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 in 3 specific ways:

• Assessing value creation readiness pre-acquisition → 𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: 𝙤𝙧𝙜𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝙙𝙪𝙚 𝙙𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 - https://bit.ly/47HzPol

• Getting the right team onto the field post-acquisition → 𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨: 𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 // 𝙝𝙞𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 - https://bit.ly/3T9yO3Z

• Getting off to a fast and focused start in the critical First 100 days → 𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: 𝙁𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝙫𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙚 𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 - https://bit.ly/3GtWj02

* * * * * 

Want to learn more about how to do these things, but don’t want to work with me yet? No prob. You can check out: 

→ My bestselling book on PE value creation >>  www.winningmoves.co

→ This free workshop on how to approach organizational due diligence >> https://bit.ly/3rCfWiL

→ This free workshop on leadership assessment >> https://bit.ly/3RJOIRU 

→ This free workshop on how to win the First 100 >> http://bit.ly/3rCjPEy 

→ Learnings, practical advice, and the occasional dog photo I post daily  >>  [hit “Follow”]

Former PE Investor & CEO // Current PE Advisor // Author // 𝘏𝘦𝘭𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘮𝘣𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘗𝘌-𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘦𝘥 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯

A value creation plan doesn’t have to be a 50-line, color-coded Gantt chart masterpiece.

Complexity feels safe and looks impressive. But it’s often a trap.

Keep it straightforward: 

1️⃣ Value Drivers: Retention? Expansion? New logos? Pricing? 

2️⃣ Objective: Be specific. “Increase X from Y to Z by [date].”

3️⃣ Winning Moves: Tactical, actionable initiatives to make it happen.

4️⃣ Indicators: The metrics you’ll monitor to know it’s on-track.

5️⃣ Owner: Who is the owner? Right person.

The simpler it is, the greater the likelihood it'll get executed. 

* * * * * 

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A search funder pitched me on his early childhood education thesis a few months back. Sharp guy, and had the whole thesis locked in:

→ Attractive unit economics
→ Strong operating leverage
→ Recession-resistant demand
→ Fragmented market ripe for consolidation

He envisioned himself taking an "active role." 

This was beautiful on paper. But halfway through, I asked if he had kids. He doesn't.

I have two of them, both in childcare. Which gave me a few notes on his thesis:

• Brutal staff turnover
• Dealing with nutty parents
• State regulators who show up unannounced
• That kid who always bites everyone (read: mine)
• The HVAC that breaks in August. Always August.
• The parents who are 30 minutes late at pickup. Again.
• The hallway that smells like diapers by end of day. Everday. 
• Norovirus ripping through the toddler room (and then the staff)
• One resignation away from calling in favors from family members
• Teachers making $18/hour for one of the tougher jobs imaginable
• The impossible math of mandated ratios when someone calls in sick

Classic case of: the thesis is clean... but the reality is messsssy. 

This isn't a knock on the searcher. He'll figure it out. But some businesses look way better/easier in Excel than they feel in real life.

Enormous respect for the people who run these places. Not for the faint of heart.

Just kicked off our latest Ascend cohort in snowy Colorado. 20 PE-backed executives across different industries and roles.

What struck me most: how fast the trust & bonds formed.

Within hours, they were challenging each other, supporting each other, and having the kind of honest conversations that are hard to find elsewhere.

That's one of the things I love about this program. Leaders in PE-backed companies often feel isolated. 

But put them in a room with other growth-minded peers... and the walls come down fast.

A few themes we kept hearing: 

→ "This was deeper than I expected."
→ "We're way more similar than different."
→ "I have much more clarity and confidence."

So grateful I get to do this work, and support + learn from leaders like these.

Christopher Adam Kenny Jordan Lora Paul James Timothy Josh Ryan Dan Adam Kelly Holly Chris Michael Sanjay Grift 

(More info on Ascend in the comments)

A PE-backed CEO's job is hard. But when you boil it down, it's also not complicated. 5 things the CEO must own and nail ↓

PE Backed CEO Job Description in 5 Points

Just wrapped the 6-month journey with our latest Ascend cohort of PE execs. And I'm reminded why I do this work: 

→ Lightbulb moments
→ Moments of real authentic connection
→ Leaders challenging each other to grow
→ A space where execs can actually be real
→ Swapping lessons / playbooks across industries

Six months ago, 16 strangers on a Zoom call. 
Now, a community invested in each other's success.

That kind of connection is rare in PE.
Feeling so lucky I get to help create it.

Excited to launch our next cohort this week!

(More info on the program in the comments. Enrolling now for our 2H26 groups.)

Boomer Brian Tim Ryan Galen Joe Derek Matt Lou Steven Ricardo Seth Ryan Felipe Grift

Chief Executive Officer at Red White & Blue Thrift

General Manager, Acme Finishing, LLC Powder Coating - Liquid Coating - Architectural Coating - Serving Major OEMs and their suppliers

Espire Dental, Chief Executive Officer

Chief Strategy Officer

VP, Finance & Accounting at Portnox

Portfolio Operations & GTM Value Creation Leader

GM at Pyramid Roofing | Vertex Service Partners

Purveyor of Pipe Nipples + Fittings

Tax Partner, Insero Advisors, LLC

Chief Operating Officer

4 x SVP Private Equity value creator | Driving digital transformation, revenue generation, and customer success with operational excellence | Professional Services, Managed Services, SaaS, Cloud, AI, CRM, ERP

Chief Executive Officer @ MojoTech

Chief Revenue Officer @ Meal Ticket

CTO, Full-stack Developer and UX Designer.

CEO of Thoughtium | Co-Founder of Ascend Leadership Accelerator

It's easy for PE firms to put "people matter" or "people first" on their websites. 
It's MUCH harder to build the systems that actually: 

• Attract talent 
• Assess talent 
• Lead talent 
• Retain talent 
• Develop talent 
• Unlock talent 

We're in the talent era of private equity now. People drive performance. 

So stop professing your edge. 
And start actually building it.

LAUNCH ALERT: just released Volume 1 of The Operator's Edge! It's a semi-annual briefing for PE operators and those who support them (operating partners, talent, portfolio ops, etc). 

Inside: 10 practical articles on the stuff that actually matters when you're running a PE-backed company.

One beta reader said, "I would pay for this." We decided to keep it free anyway.

Grab a copy at the link below 👊

Ineffective PE board meetings waste time, intelligence, and $$. Good ones create real leverage. Here are 5 common board meeting failure modes and how to spot them ↓

1. The Congressional Hearing
↳ Management vs. Board. Adversarial energy.
↳ Board asks "gotcha" questions to look smart
↳ Result: Zero collaboration, all performance theater

2. The Show-and-Tell
↳ 3 hours of updates no one needed
↳ Little time spent on actual problems / opps
↳ Result: Everyone leaves exhausted and nothing changes

3. The Free-for-All
↳ No agenda, facilitation. No focus.
↳ 45 minutes debating something that doesn't move the needle
↳ Result: Meeting wanders and critical issues never get discussed

4. The Loose End
↳ Great discussion, zero decisions
↳ No one recaps what was agreed to
↳ Result: Same conversation happens next quarter

5. The Leaf in the Wind
↳ No shared vision. No clear strategy.
↳ Discussions aren't tethered to a clear direction
↳ Result: The meeting drifts (and so does the business)

If your board meetings resemble any of these, no time like the beginning of the new year to get them tuned up. 

* * * * * 
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If you believe talent is important to PE returns, tell me: how much of your time in board meetings is spent discussing talent?

Pro Tip: Make talent talk a standing, recurring topic in board meetings.

Every. 
Single. 
Meeting.

Just in time for Q1 board meeting season... here's how ↓

How to Talk Talent in PE Board Meetings

Cultural transformation in PE port-co's almost always requires leadership transformation. Culture won't change if leaders don't change.

For cultural change to take hold, it is on leaders to: 

① ADVOCATE – It's what you say
→ Communicate the cultural changes clearly
→ Explain the "why" and the "what's in it for them"
→ Your team needs to hear it, understand it, and believe it

② MODEL – It's what you do
→ Walk the talk
→ Demonstrate the behaviors and mindsets you want to see
→ Your actions set the standard (not some slide deck)

③ OPERATIONALIZE – It's what you implement
→ Systematize the change
→ Change the practices, habits, and ways-of-working
→ If your systems reward old behaviors, the new culture won't stick

Most leaders stop at advocacy. 
A few model it. 
Almost none operationalize. 

This is where PE port-co cultural transformation will stall. 

* * * * * 
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Leading a PE port-co is a grind. No way around that. But what makes it harder: A dull axe.

We talk to a lot of leaders about Ascend, and the most common objection is: "Sounds great, but I'm too busy to slow down and learn."

I get it. You're too busy swinging to slow down and sharpen the axe.

But here's where this misses: 

If spending 2% of your time this year could make you even 10% sharper during the other 98%, the trade-off is a no-brainer. 

Sometimes, you've gotta slow down to go fast. 

Info on the program for PE execs is in the comments.

One of the best parts of the Ascend community we're building is the depth of wisdom among the PE operators inside. We’re going to start sharing more of it. Ya know, abundance mindset. 👊

This one comes from David Dean, an Ascend alum and one of the sharpest, most grounded PE CFOs I’ve worked with... and a heckuva good guy. Two successful exits under his belt.

We sat down and had him break down what it really takes to exit well as a PE-backed leader.

Lots of super practical advice in here that can have a big impact on your exit value. 

Full article below ↓↓

As a PE-backed executive, delivering a successful exit is part of the job—arguably one of the biggest parts. The exit is the ultimate scoreboard. It’s

Open article: Leading a Successful Exit: Lessons from a PE-Backed CFO by Dan Cremons • 9 min read

Leading a Successful Exit: Lessons from a PE-Backed CFO

Under the hood of every successful mid-market CEO are: 
 
∙ Bad ideas 
∙ Self-doubt 
∙ Uncertainty
∙ Fear of failure 
∙ Self-limiting beliefs 
∙ Imposter syndrome 
∙ Comparison to other execs
∙ Worry about how they're viewed
 
CEO, CFO, COO, C-whatever-O... 
 
We’re all just human beings with fears, uncertainties, doubts. (Present company included.) 
 
The successful ones aren't immune... 
 
They simply learn how to understand, manage and overcome these limitations.

Something I learned the hard way early in my PE career: 

Faking it is exhausting... and expensive. 

When you’re preoccupied with trying to look the part...

→ The fancy calculator
→ The Patagonia vest
→ The big words

...you’re burning energy that could be used to:

→ Sharpen your edge
→ Build real confidence
→ Double down on what makes you you

Instead, it gets spent on:

→ Managing impressions
→ Watching every word
→ Acting like someone else

And over time, the parts of you that are different (and valuable) start to fade.

Learning: The more you focus on faking it, the further you drift from your actual edge.

Lots of PE-backed companies are coming into '26 with high hopes for a breakout year. But it’s hard to drive breakout results by playing it safe. 

Wrote this article as part of a new semi-annual magazine we're publishing called The Operator's Edge. Def worth the 5 minute read as you're firming up 2026 goals. 

Check it out! ↓

TL;DR Lots of PE-backed companies come into '26 with high hopes for a breakout year. But it’s hard to drive breakout results by playing it safe. Peak 

The Stretch Zone: How to Set Goals That Grow Your People and Your Equity Value

PE folks: An unusual but powerful practice to use with your mgmt teams as you get into 2026 planning & Q1 board meetings ↓

The Power of Visualization

A lot of what I know about leading in PE came from other operators. People who'd been through it and were willing to share what worked and what didn't.

The Operator's Edge is my attempt to pay that forward. It's a semi-annual briefing for PE executives. 

Volume 1 (now live) is 10 articles covering topics like vision-setting, hiring smarter, how to prep for exit, and staying grounded when the pressure is relentless.

If you're running a PE-backed company or supporting someone who is (board, value creation, deal team, etc.), grab a copy.

Link in comments below.

A hard truth I learned the hard way early in my PE career:
Just because it looks clean on a spreadsheet doesn't mean it is IRL.

One of the first PE deals I led was a total disaster.

The return math looked good. But the business lacked something important: 

VALUE CREATION READINESS

 It wasn't positioned to make those numbers come true.

→ Leadership misalignment
→ Cultural baggage
→ Capability gaps
→ Talent gaps

It was a tough (but valuable) lesson in the importance of getting a clear read on value creation readiness BEFORE writing a big check.

Most PE firms think: "We'll own the business for 5 years. So we need a 5-year vision." But here's what they miss:

The next buyer isn't purchasing the last 5 years.
They're buying the NEXT 5 years.

The smarter play: 

Think 10+ years out.
Set a BHAG that outlasts you. 
Build toward that vision of success. 

I came across this clip in the archives from my conversation with Rob Huxtable on the topic. Roll it. 

* * * * * 

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Managing Partner, Thinking Dimensions ► LinkedIN Top Voice 2024 ►Bold Growth, M&A, Strategy, Value Creation, Sustainable EBITDA ► NED, Senior Advisor to Boards,C-Level,Family Office,Private Equity ► Techstars Lead Mentor

LinkedIn Top Voice 2024/2025

Harvard Business Review Advisory Council Member, Strategy Tools Best Partner Award 2023  for outstanding work in Corporate Strategy, Transformation, and Growth. Annual Award Winner 2019, 2020 and 2024: Business Consultancy Professional of the Year from Corporate LiveWire. Executive Education Professor of the Year Award for 2021, 2022, and 2023 at CIMBA/University of IOWA, Techstars All-Star Mentor Award for 2024.

I am a Managing Partner at Thinking Dimensions, and an N.E.D.

I work with boards, CEOs, private equity, family office, senior leaders and owners in Fortune 1000 businesses to impact future sustainable growth and profitability.

As managing partner in Thinking Dimensions- an international management consultancy renowned for its problem solving & decision making processes- I am part of a global team delivering EBITDA impacting outcomes to clients through 3 distinct offerings:
 
•	Strategy Definition and Execution
•	Digital Transformation
•	Sustainable Value Creation

Thinking Dimensions has locations and expertise with a network spanning 17 countries of which I have conducted business on 5 continents.

With 30+ years of international experience in advisory activities balanced between both multinational and family controlled enterprises, I've had the unique opportunity to assist over 250 CEO’s and Senior Business Leaders globally.
  
Issues companies are focused around include:

Digital Transformation
Succession Planning
Corporate Venture Capital
AI Governance/Integration 
Internationalization including Early Stage Markets
Value Creation through non-organic growth (M&A, platforms)
Group and corporate reorganization/organization design
Go To Market/Sales 
Business plans/Industrial plans
Develop new business models
Funding of New Market development and commercial opportunities
Executive and board alignment
Platform and Ecosystem Design
Long-Term Sustainability 
Circular Economy and the Business Decisions necessary for the future

The organizations my teams and I work with achieve speed, alignment, and practical results with a future long term view.  

In summary I am working as a trusted advisor assisting leaders with the big decisions necessary for the future. 

I continue to publish at:
 
http://www.thinkingdimensions.com/resources/blog/strategy

As a Non Executive Director, I bring an international perspective focused on new business models, innovative approaches to Strategy, and Diverse capabilities required for sustainability. 

Specialties: Strategy, M&A, PE, VC,Non-Organic Growth, Emerging Markets, Family Office

Scott Newton

Why did the 2024 Mac Mini suddenly sell out on Amazon?

It's not people replacing their desktop machines.

It rather is a new viral trend. So big now that the memes are everywhere, including here.

In one word: Clawdbot

Clawdbot?

Yes, Clawdbot is an AI Assistant that is taking the (nerdy) tech world by storm. 

What does Clawdbot do? If you listen to the early adopter "evangelists" of the bot, everything.

It is an open-source AI tool. Silicon Valley techies are all over the internet, showing off their adaptations. You run it locally on your device, the most popular way at the moment (and of the easier approaches) to set up a Mac Mini and run it as a dedicated server for Clawdbot.

The reason it has become so virally popular is it's very impressive demonstration of Agentic AI. It can autonomously take complex multi step operations and actions on your behalf. 

And because it is Open Source, you can download and install Clawdbot straight from Github.

Is it safe to use?

Well, that's where it gets a bit more scary. Clawdbot has full read/write access to your entire drive, and users are giving it access to ChatGPT, Perplexity, Claude, email, calendars, slack, teams....

The tech professionals, and the founder of Clawdbot are very clear: "Don't use Clawdbot without understanding the risks." 

"Clawdbot is an experiment" and as such there is no "perfectly secure" setup the founders explain. 

I certainly wouldn't encourage you to run it on any business machine in your company, unless you have an IT and Cybersecurity department who are fully aware and have built a sandbox to run this. It can easily go out of control. 

The users brave enough to let the bot be your "eyes and hands" to manage tasks 24/7 are using this Agentic AI to prepare morning briefings, write daily reports, set alerts when high priority messages arrive, read and write files, execute terminal commands, run scripts. 

The bot also controls Chrome to handle web tasks, managers calendars, "triages" email, and interacts with Notion and Todoist for example. 

It is a self learning tool, and can write its own code to create entirely new capabilities. 

Because it runs on your local hardware, it could (theoretically anyway) provide better privacy as compared to cloud-based services.

Hence why the little Mac Mini is sold out everywhere, as techies around the world begin to test out what is truly possible with Agentic AI, especially in open source. 

Fun last fact: Clawdbot are changing their name after a legal action was threatened by Anthropic (imagine why?) As of 01 February, the company will be know as Moltbot, and the cute little crustacean formerly known as "Clawd" will be know as "Molty."

One last warning. The creators of Clawdbot (soon to be Moltbot) refer to it as "Spicy," and what they mean buy that is that the agent does have the ability to "potentially destroy valuable files and leak confidential data if not properly secured."

You have been warned.

Strategy is Mastery.

Managing Partner, Thinking Dimensions ►Bold Growth,M&A, Strategy, Value Creation, Sustainable EBITDA ► NED, Senior Advisor to Boards,C-Level,Family Office,Private Equity ► Techstars Lead Mentor ► LinkedIN Top Voice 24/25

How do you show up?

What you wear, and how, communicates a LOT to those in your environment.

Where you are in terms of context is so important. 

Until recently, world famous organizations such as Lloyds would politely stop men coming in to the office without a tie. Mandatory dress code. Airlines have published detailed dress codes for employees since the inception of flying.

Why you chose to where a specific outfit and style will immediately set the tone as to how you are perceived. This is not always a positive by the way:

I famously went once (many years ago) to a corporate retreat and board meeting in the Rocky mountains with my case full of usual suits and ties. That was not my best decision to put it politely.

What are your "go to" outfits for business, and how have they changed over the years?

Until 2020, I wore a tie six days a week. I still have a collection of hundreds of my very favourite ties, yet now I am more likely to use them at most twice a week. Even now though I always pack 2 or 3 versatile beloved ties in my carry on.

Standards and expectations change.

How do you adapt to the times, and what are your favourite choices for business meetings and events? What do you find is the impact of your business attire on outcomes?

Is it time to bring back dress codes for the office?

Strategy is Mastery.

What do you think?

Palantir Technologies currently has a vending machine in its Washington, D.C., office, with nicotine pouches free for anyone 21 and older. 

Industries including Media, Finance, Big Law, and Technology have users in professional roles choosing to use Nicotine pouches for increased concentration.

As a former smoker (many decades ago now,) I can appreciate the draw: caffeine and nicotine together lead many people to note their concentration is improved for hours. I know this worked for me when the days exceeded 18 hours or more straight.

And pouches are noted to have lower negative health impacts as compared to smoking a cigarette. 

The Financial Times have noted this weekend that "Big Tobacco is turning into Big Nicotine." 

British American Tobacco (owner of pouch brand Velo) shares have risen over 90% in the past two years, and with a market cap of £92 Billion are now the 6th most valuable company in the UK.

Certainly a well designed pouch that removes unnecessary chemicals and additives can cause less harm than smoking. I support thoughtful technology that can help people to reduce harm. It wasn't that long ago that people were chain smoking in offices (especially in Media, Entertainment, and Finance for example.)

Will other companies follow in the footsteps of Palantir and Silicon Valley Tech in offering this amenity in their offices?

How well does your Strategy address changing trends and social norms?

Strategy is Mastery.

Photo credit: The Hustle

I love Minneapolis.

A great city. Beautiful area. I have had the opportunity to visit many times, both for business and leisure. A major hub for Delta airlines (used to be Northwest.)

Minneapolis is major corporate centre, with one of the highest concentration of Fortune 500 companies in the world. The city is known globally for innovation, health technologies, advanced manufacturing and food production.

Some of the largest multinational companies headquartered in Minneapolis include

Target (retail)
UnitedHealth Group
Best Buy
General Mills
3M

and Cargill, which is the largest private company in America.

Minneapolis also is home to “Medical Alley,” which is the number one ranked centre for healthcare medical technoogy in the world.

Currently with unemployment at just 3.7%, Minneapolis is an economic success story globally envied, even as 59% of businesses cite it is difficult to hire due to competitive conditions for labour.

Minnesota is ranked sixth in the nation for business, is home to over 1200 foreign owned companies, and has business taxes below the national average. The economic contribution of the state is $472 Billion in GDP for 2023 and growing. In the past two years the state has experienced tens of billions of dollars in new investment, including significant projects for AI Data Centres and Sustainable Aviation Fuel.

Award winning innovative industry leaders in Minneapolis include Ameriprise Financial (Fortune magazine’s most innovative company for 2026,) Gravie, Flywheel, NetSPI, Ascent Solutions, and Medtronic, as well as the others I have listed above. 

In Venture Capital, Minneapolis is ranked as a global ecosystem leader, and the tech sector contributes $28 billion to the local economy while accounting for 10% of the total workforce. The city is in the top 50 worldwide for both SaaS and Hardware/IOT.

This article is part of a series I share on Sunday of cities I have visited and conducted business in all around the world. Pictured below is me flying into the international hub at MSP, a major Delta operations centre.

My thoughts and support today are with all the kind hard working people living in Minneapolis, and their Constitutionally Protected Rights. Let us all ensure that the Constitution is respected, human rights are protected, and transparency and goverance are the cornerstone of every decision and action in the USA in the future.

How well does your Strategy address the opportunities in Minneapolis in a future that is not x+1?

Strategy is Mastery.

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Back to the Future?

A trend which started on TikTok has taken over digital media this month. People posting photos of January 2016, with a tag of "2026 is the new 2016."

Celebrities, Entrepreneurs, Executives, Sports Heroes, and everyone in between... are all posting pictures from their digital camera rolls of 2016.

It has now spread worldwide, and while social media viral trends are often odd (remember the Ice Bucket challenge,) this one particularly so.

Why?

Because as humans we tend to look optimistically forward, and think about the future, while this trend is purely nostalgic to rewind back time by a decade.

2016 was a good year. As was 2025. And there is much to look forward to in 2026.

Yet a more interesting question than to rewind to 2016 is to think ahead to 2036.

What world will you create in 2036 which, while making you look back fondly to 2026, excites you even more about 2037, 2046, and beyond?

In your Strategy (both personal and corporate,) what key assumptions do you hold about the future, and where are your decisions and actions prioritizing and addressing your critical implications?

Because in a future that is not x+1, Strategy Is Mastery.

Photo: January 2016, speaking at a business conference, Ernie Els Winery, Stellenbosch, South Africa.

When were you last in Rome?

One of the most powerful impacts I feel in Rome is the history. You are walking through what was the headquarters of the first global empire.

History can teach us so much, and I take the opportunity to consider and study what it means in our current context and looking towards future scenarios.

I studied Latin, and still today recall translating passages related to Gaius Caesar Augustus Germanicus, known as Caligula.

Gaius was Roman emperor from 37 to 41 CE, initially adored but later remembered for extreme cruelty, tyrannical behaviour, and eccentricity. 

In his initial reforms, Caligula destroyed previous legal records of treasonous criminals, recalled exiles to Rome, and bringing back the public spectacles (held in the Colosseo which I have taken a picture of below.)

A year into power, Caligula fell ill and began to behave very erratically: killing for pleasure, claiming divine status, and attempting to make his horse, Incitatus, a consul.

Caligula had a fondness for grandiose, costly building projects, many of which were intended to benefit or entertain but are described in Roman history sources as wasteful. The projects drove the powerful Roman empire into financial disaster, after spending vast sums of money on lavish building projects dedicated to himself. 

More disturbingly still, he took great pleasure and power in humiliating the responsible Roman senate, and replaced their legally binding power with his own absolute personal authority. In the course of 39, Caligula's increasingly tense relationship with his Senate deteriorated into outright hostility and confrontation.

History has not been kind to legacy of Caligula and summarizes his rule as: "increasingly self-indulgent, cruel, sadistic, extravagant, and sexually perverted thereafter, an insane, murderous tyrant who demanded and received worship as a living god, humiliated the Senate, and planned to make his horse a consul."

Of all the manifestations of wild and extravagant behaviour exhibited by Caligula during his brief reign, "nothing has better served to confirm the popular notion of his insanity than his apparent demand to be recognised as a god." 

Caligula sold priesthoods for his unofficial "genius cult" to the wealthiest nobles, for a per capita fee of 10 million sesterces, and made loans available to those who could not afford immediate full payment. 

Caligula is also remembered for his disastrous military invasions in CE 41, where he had to abandon an attempted invasion of Britain, and the installation of his statue in the Temple in Jerusalem. In personal life, Caligula divorced three times in his short stay on Earth. Historians also note that "the extreme stresses and strains of Imperial rule, for which Caligula was temperamentally ill-equipped, lead to considerable health complications."

In your Strategy, how effectively do you consider how past historical events coincide with future possible scenarios?

Strategy is Mastery.

You may not at first think that a story beginning with Venetian global explorer Marco Polo in 1285 connects to modern day strategy, M&A, and branding.

Yet it was in 1285 that Marco Polo first visited the port city of Xiamen in Fujian province. He was most interested in trading silk, porcelain, spices, and precious stones and metals, while he transferred knowledge about manufacturing, paper money, and gunpowder.

Fast forward seven centuries, and you had the leading performance footwear brands from Montebelluna in Italy looking for locations to scale their production to meet the global requirements of top technical brands including NIKE.

In 1991, Ding Shizhong of Fujian launched a small outsourcing factory, beginning to build shoes for Nike and Adidas. Yet anyone who has ever met Ding will note that while he remained humble and focused, the vision he shared was global. 

Ding understood early on that the brands held the power with the customer, and to become a strong player he too would need to leverage his company Anta Sports with a Go To Market approach that included well known brands. For this reason, Ding famously pledged to build "not China's Nike, but the world's Anta."

Starting in 1999, Anta sponsored table tennis champion Kong Linghui, the first step towards building a consumer recognized company. In 2009 Anta acquired the rights in China to Italian brand Fila. 

In 2025, Fila accounted for 33% of total revenues for Anta, while the Anta brand reached 44%.

My first business visit to PRC to assess the opportunities in outdoor sports and technical brands was in 2002. Already you could see that there was a buzz building. It has only increased, steadily moving towards a crescendo.

In 2019, Anta lead a €4.9 billion acquisition of Amer sports, the Finland based group of high performance technical brands including Arc'Teryx, Salomon, Wilson, Atomic, Peak Performance, Armada Skis, ENVE Composites, Louisville Slugger, EvoShield, ATEC, and Luxilon.  

Anta relisted Amer in 2024 on the NYSE, and retains 39% of the group.

In 2025, Amer acquired German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin for $300 million.

This week, Anta made M&A headlines again, purchasing 29% of the German brand PUMA for €1.5 Billion from the Pinault family office, with Anta becoming the largest shareholder.

“Anta gained so much experience in managing production for Nike, Adidas, and Puma”  explains Yu at Kanter Worldpanel.

Anta said it expected the Puma stake to “enhance its presence and brand recognition in the global sporting goods market, thereby strengthening its overall international competitiveness.”

Just as Marco Polo transferred knowledge centuries ago, entrepreneur Ding Shizhong is learning and building a global outdoor activewear empire.

How well does your Strategy embrace new partnerships, developing and learning from your customers, and building global M&A programmes for long term value creation?

Strategy is Mastery.

Photo (author:) Arc'Teryx Store, Ningbo China

Do you want to go "behind the scenes" at Davos?

Our ever capable Strategy technology colleagues were able to monitor the camera system of the first "Bored of Peace" meeting which took place yesterday evening, and actually capture the moment when the tie breaking vote for withdrawing the invitation to Canada was resolved.

To validate the accuracy of this photo, the posting by Trump on his social media page immediately following the meeting last night: “Please let this Letter serve to represent that the Board of Peace is withdrawing its invitation to you regarding Canada’s joining, what will be, the most prestigious Board of Leaders ever assembled, at any time.”

How well does your Strategy track leading indicators and the weak signals that indicate changes in your global operating environments?

Strategy is Mastery. 

Fun quiz Friday: Which movie was this photo from? Year?? ;)

What happens when this happens?

As pension funds, governments, sovereign wealth funds, UHNWIs, Family Offices, insurance companies, alternative investors, and financial institutions confront a future that is not x+1, what will be the  key trigger that kicks it all off?

How close are we to crossing the red lines?

Where does your Strategy test your key Strategic assumptions for a future that is not x+1?

What weak signals are you regularly testing, and Why will you know when the data is changing in advance of monumental shifts?

In my experience, it is precisely in times of extreme volatility when a proven tested Strategy system delivers the most exceptional positive results.

Strategy is Mastery.

We all know that through every series of cycles, "Winter is Coming." 

Are you ready for it?

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