Former Green Beret & Airborne Ranger now CEO of Rising Wealth Club & CFO/COO of GrowthLine Capital

After 22 years in the alternative asset management industry, I founded Jedburgh Advisors as a hedge fund that is focused on providing attractive risk-adjusted returns. We are a Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business with a goal to have at least 50% of the employees as U.S. Military veterans. We currently have three funds on our platform: Fund 1 (algo & AI driven fund), Fund 2 (volatility relative value) and Fund 3 (disruptive innovation). We are always looking for new Portfolio Managers to join us.  If you are a talented PM or analyst and want to launch a fund on our platform, please contact us. We are operationally efficient, so small launches are welcome.

David Walker

Nice. The world is moving very rapidly...move with it.

Former Green Beret & Airborne Ranger. CIO, COO, CFO, investor, and author.

Chief Investment Officer & Member of the Executive Committee at Syz Group ¦ 260,000+ followers

View Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA’s profile

A Bloomberg Terminal costs $24,000 a year.
Someone just recreated one using Perplexity Computer for $200 a month...
Could it be a real threat to Bloomberg? 

Bloomberg’s moat has never been the data.
Data is becoming a commodity.
The real moat is the interface:
 • Thousands of keyboard shortcuts
 • Proprietary screens
 • Years of muscle memory burned into finance professionals

The switching cost wasn’t price.
It was retraining.

AI agents collapse that moat.
If an agent can replicate the interface and pull equivalent data from public and licensed sources, the lock-in disappears.

What’s left?
Two things:
1) The chat network — a social product
2) Real-time market feeds — a licensing negotiation
Neither is a technological moat.

The lesson isn’t about Bloomberg.
It’s about every product whose advantage depends on users memorizing complexity.
AI doesn’t learn your system.
It replaces it.

Source: Subodh WarekarSubodh Warekar

20% of the world's oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz.  Now is the time to prevent that from being in jeopardy.

Everyone asks: “Can’t oil just go another way if Hormuz closes?”
@jack pradelli on X did the math

The Strait of Hormuz moves 18.6 million barrels of oil per day.

Now the alternatives:
→ Suez Canal: 4.6M b/d
→ Bab al‑Mandab Strait: 3.1M b/d
→ East–West Pipeline: limited capacity
→ Jask Oil Terminal: still unfinished

Even if you combine Suez + Bab al-Mandab:
7.7M b/d

That’s only 41% of Hormuz capacity.

The other 59%? There is no backup route.

Pipelines help, but they can’t scale fast enough to replace maritime flows. They’re built for specific routes, not global emergency rerouting.

And every “alternative” has its own risk:
• Suez and Bab al-Mandab are chokepoints too
• Pipelines are fixed infrastructure
• Overland routes add cost and geopolitical dependency
• Red Sea routes carry their own security risks

So if Hormuz is disrupted, the system doesn’t reroute smoothly.

It cascades through bottlenecks.

Diversification matters.

But diversification isn’t resilience if the combined alternatives can’t replace the original artery...

Themes are great, but better to pick individual opportunities.

Founder, The Global Investment Letter | 30+ Years Managing Global Equity Portfolios | Navigating Trend Changes in Global Markets

The Investment Theme of Every Decade: What History Says About What Comes Next

 From European stocks to American megacaps, every market cycle crowns a new leader, until the next one takes its place.

Every decade tells a different investment story. The chart above, sourced from MSIM, Bloomberg, FactSet, and Haver, illustrates how global leadership in markets has shifted dramatically from one era to the next.

In the 1950s, European equities led as postwar reconstruction fuelled growth. The 1960s brought the “Nifty Fifty,” a handful of high-quality U.S. growth stocks that investors believed could justify any valuation. The 1970s rewarded commodities and emerging markets as inflation surged and the dollar weakened. The 1980s crowned Japan, whose stock market seemed unstoppable until its spectacular collapse. The 1990s saw the rise of American technology. The 2000s returned to emerging markets and raw materials. And the 2010s and 20s have belonged to U.S. “mega caps.”

Each of these episodes shared a common process: conviction turned to concentration, and concentration eventually led to vulnerability. By the time investors became fully committed to one theme, the conditions that had driven its success were already eroding.

Today, markets once again appear clustered around a dominant narrative—the supremacy of U.S. technology giants. The FAANG (Magnificent 7) cohort and their peers have delivered exceptional results due to the transformative promise of artificial intelligence. Yet history reminds us that no leadership lasts forever. Whether through valuation excess, policy shifts, or structural change, markets inevitably rotate to new sources of return.

Investor sentiment, too, follows a familiar pattern. When optimism becomes universal, diversification feels unnecessary. That was true of Japanese equities in 1989, of tech stocks in 1999, and of commodities in 2007. In each case, investors mistook a structural trend for a perpetual one.

The lesson is not that today’s leaders are doomed to fail, but that market dominance tends to sow the seeds of its own undoing.

 The baton may once again pass to regions or sectors currently out of favour. A world of fiscal expansion, tariffs, geopolitical fragmentation, and resource competition could revive the case for tangible assets and select emerging markets. Investors should recall that the greatest opportunities rarely lie where everyone is already looking.

Each Tuesday, I share observations on the investment landscape, framing the risks, behaviours, and events via email. It’s free and designed to provide readers with valuable perspectives and information.

 We share deeper analysis and actionable investment ideas in our premium service, the Global Investment Letter. Sign up for the free weekly commentary and access sample issues of the premium service here: https://lnkd.in/g2mBz8fJ

Another DeepSeek moment for Tech and US equities???
China Pulse: "We are very close to the launch of the latest Chinese AI model, DeepSeek-V4. There is much speculation and some unconfirmed leaks about the efficiency of the upcoming model compared to the American models ChatGPT and Cloud. According to the leaks, the cost of input via DeepSeek's API will be $0.27 per million tokens. If this is true, it will be more than 50 times cheaper than its competitors, whose models cost $15 per million tokens.
Of course, the cost varies due to the different operating mechanisms of the models.
It is not only the tech community that is eagerly awaiting the release of the new model, but also the markets. The emergence of a model that offers competitive efficiency at such low prices will put significant pressure on American AI companies.
The model is scheduled to launch this month, and there are speculations that it will be released in the coming days, coinciding with the start of the Chinese New Year".

Source: China pulse 🇨🇳
@Eng_china5

Remember what CL futures did when Russia invaded Ukraine.

BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist

Oil futures in steep backwardation through this week - near term prices well above longer dated contracts (chart) - a signal that markets see supply disruption as temporary.

And those with the means will move to another country.  Look at European history - Centers of Capitalism move when a country falls into collapse.

Precious Metals Analyst📈 | Featured: investing.com, FXStreet | Join 1,000+ weekly readers at the Gold Edge Report

Politicians promise solutions, but the math says America is running on borrowed time.

When Ray Dalio talks about debt, he does not frame it as opinion. He frames it as pattern recognition. After studying centuries of market history, he is describing what tends to happen when nations reach this stage, not guessing what might happen next.

-Debt has surged past 38 trillion dollars and continues climbing
-New borrowing is being used to pay interest on existing borrowing
-This is the late stage pattern seen repeatedly in historical reserve currencies
-Interest payments in the United States are now exceeding what is spent on national defence.

The loss of purchasing power is not theoretical, it is already happening quietly through currency debasement.

History shows these cycles rarely end with a clean reset. They are resolved through some combination of inflation, currency weakness, and a restructuring of the financial order. The shift feels gradual while it is happening, but the long term impact is anything but.

History suggests these shifts happen slowly, then suddenly. Are you positioning for that possibility or assuming this time is different?

Contagion?  Remember the old saying, "If you lived through one financial crisis, you've lived through one financial crisis."  They are all different:  dot.com, GFC, Covid, etc.

From the Financial Times:

"Shares of the biggest private investment managers on Wall Street tumbled on Thursday after Blue Owl permanently restricted investors from exiting a debt fund for retail investors, sending shivers through the industry."

#markets #privatecredit #blueowl #investing #investors

🤖 Top 10 most visited AI websites in the world (December 2025)

1.🇺🇸 chatgpt. com (US) – 5,212,821,273 visits
2.🇺🇸 gemini. google. com (US) – 679,929,570 visits
3.🇺🇸 openai. com (US) – 573,485,401 visits
4.🇨🇳 deepseek. com (CN) – 305,810,342 visits
5.🇨🇳 chat.deepseek. com (CN) – 233,026,658 visits
6.🇺🇸 perplexity. ai (US) – 221,992,170 visits
7.🇺🇸 claude. ai (US) – 178,315,660 visits
8.🇩🇪 deepl. com (DE) – 158,248,746 visits
9.🇺🇸 character. ai (US) – 153,196,102 visits
10.🇺🇸 copilot. microsoft. com (US) – 96,587,855 visits

Source: Tech Informer (December 2025)

Source: Cata Paul 🃏‍‍‍
@CataPaul2

I think the graph should be on a logarithmic scale.

Independent Macro Strategist | Financial Markets Commentator | • Historical • Macro Trends • Metals • Energy • Equities • Bonds • Real Estate • Crypto • Systemic Risk | Author of “Beyond The Headlines”

🟠 ₿ITCOIN: THE MEGAPHONE OF MAYHEM 📣

There may only be a whimper coming out of the Bitcoin raging bull quarter right now… but what’s shrieking out loud and clear through THE MEGAPHONE OF MAYHEM is simple:
💥 Bitcoin could crash to $28K in 2026.

🩸 BLOOD ON THE TRACKS?
The chart shows Bitcoin’s megaphone technical pattern that emerged in 2017. To me, it perfectly matches the brouhaha from Bitcoin bulls, with their promises of:
💰 Getting rich quick
🧍‍♂️ Becoming financially independent
⛓️‍💥 Operating outside the system

🔺 Upper Trend Line—“Line of Death”
Connects Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle peaks:
📈 2017: $19K
📈 2021: $69K
📈 2025: $126K

🔻 Lower Trend Line—“Line of Life”
Connects Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle troughs:
📉 2018: $3K
📉 2022: $15K
📉 2026: $28K (Projected)

🌀 TANGLED UP IN BLUE
Back in January 2025, when Bitcoin was trading at $98K, I sounded a warning:
🚨 The lessons of history say Bitcoin could crash to $30K by 2026.
🤷‍♂️ Many said I “didn’t understand crypto.”
 
💡 The truth? Crypto is surprisingly simple:
✅ High correlation to leveraged tech stocks
✅ Repeating 4-year halving cycles
✅ Blindingly obvious technical patterns

🌊 SURE IS GONNA BE ROUGH
Bitcoin rose from $98K in Jan 2025 to $126K by Oct 2025… then recently fell to $60K. Now? Bitcoin appears to be mid-bear market, primed for a total 78% drop from $126K to $28K.

🌃 IN THE SPOTLIGHT SO CLEAR
Bitcoin’s deteriorating performance is concerning:
🐂 2018-21: +2,200% gains
🐂 2022-25: +740% gains (66% lower compared to 2018-21)

🧠 A DIFFERENT POINT OF VIEW
The next bull cycle (2026-29) may only see 250% gains ($28K to $98K). Bitcoin could fail to take out its 2025 high of $126K, locking itself into a long-term secular bear market downtrend.

🔜 REVOLUTION IN THE AIR?
1️⃣ A major secular capital rotation took place in 2025 from risk-on to risk-off assets (S&P 500-to-gold ratio breaking below critical 10-year average).
2️⃣ Since 2012, ‘Risk-on’ Bitcoin has a 94% correlation to the 3X Leveraged NASDAQ.
🤔 If Bitcoin thrived in a risk-on secular bull market since 2009, why wouldn’t it suffer in a risk-on secular bear market?
 
🪓 ONE DAY THE AXE WILL FALL
Legendary investor Michael Burry warns:
🕳️ At $50K Bitcoin, miners would go bankrupt, selling reserves, and tokenised metals futures would collapse into a black hole with no buyers.

💧 RAIN FALLING ON YOUR SHOES…..
Crypto faces a dark future, especially if my prediction of a severe U.S. recession in 2026-28 holds true. Bitcoin has NEVER experienced a major downturn when risk-on assets usually get crushed.

🎶 FINAL THOUGHT
The megaphone noise of Bitcoin is still reverberating—but take a leaf out of Michael Burry’s book: put on your headphones, crank up some Dylan, and let the music drown out the siren calls!

📩 FOR YOUR FREE SUBSCRIPTION
👉 https://lnkd.in/eS9HPvh2

💬 FYI—Richard Keskküla, Charles Najjar, Michiel ₿runet de Roche₿rune, Marco Crotta, Ravi Sidhu, Nasib Fathi, Jake Barber, Jamie Coutts CMT, CFTe

Another quote that might soon come into play, "Sell it all, today!"

"The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history." It is probably because "When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." — Chuck Prince, former Citigroup CEO (2007) ( highlights the tendency to ignore risks and repeat dangerous behaviors during a boom and assume that investors know when to cash out!).

Not saying “always buy the dips”, but wanted to share this chart from Ed Yardeni.  The y-axis, appropriately, is logarithmic so that ratio moves look the same at each level.  
Note: in my career there have been more than 13 bear markets and two drawdowns of 50%, a level most investors can’t handle.  What’s interesting to me is that what these drops have most in common is levels of extreme overvaluation preceding them.  What punctures the balloon changes over time, and may not be the headline-grabbing geopolitical events of the day.

This chart clearly spooked markets, but how much of it is actually new?

What has NOT CHANGED:
➡️ We knew companies with balance sheet strength were going to spend and spend to defend position in a fast-evolving, winner-takes-all/most race;
➡️ We knew this spend was going to eat into free cash flow before it generates revenue, as model labs are expected to stay cash negative for years;
➡️ And we knew we were never going to know the payoff quickly.

What has CHANGED:
➡️ Sentiment flipped from buildout hope to adoption fear, from productivity return to disruption risk; 
➡️ Focus consequently turned to terminal value debates with some broad brushing assumptions, from earnings which have not materially deteriorated, let’s see tomorrow’s nvidia report changes that. 

But even against a backdrop that feels more fear than hope right now, this chart of rising compute demand unambiguously supports semiconductors, hardware and energy suppliers. Importantly it shows conviction in ai is rising, not falling.

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