Core Bridge Partners

Alternative Investments professional serving as an outsourced COO/CFO to hedge funds and private equity firms. Two decades of experience in middle and back office operations, compliance and investor relations. Expert in investment vehicle launches and operations, spanning equities, derivatives, credit, distressed, global macro and private equities. Proficient in the complete life cycle of trading vehicles including open and closed end funds, domestic and offshore parallel and master-feeder structures, separately managed accounts, side pockets and Special Purpose Vehicles.

CFO and COO

GrowthLine Capital Management LLC

GrowthLine Capital is a long biased, high return seeking equity long/short fund that invests in companies benefiting from innovation driven disruptive change that can become multiples of their current size.
Developed and manage all operations including middle and back office, compliance, financial planning & analysis, management & administration and human resources of a rapidly growing financial firm.

Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Compliance Officer

Spruce House Investment Management LLC

Led all operations of a $2.6B Hedge Fund that grew from $800M.  Developed and managed all operations including middle and back office, compliance, financial planning & analysis, management & administration and human resources of a rapidly growing financial firm.

Chief Operations Officer, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Compliance Officer

Flintlock Capital

· Cofounded a discretionary global commodities hedge fund.
· Raised $160M from institutional investors in two years.
· Hired key employees including a Risk Manager, a Research Analyst and a Controller.
· Developed operational and risk policies, procedures and controllers for the funds and managed accounts.
· Managed the daily fund and business operations.
· Directed the business development and marketing efforts of the firm.
· Established and maintained strong relationships with prime brokers, futures commission merchants, broker/dealers, attorneys, compliance professionals, and auditors in order to quickly establish the firm and launch our funds.

Co-founder, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Compliance Officer

Tower Capital Asset Management

· Managed the daily operations of an SEC registered long/short equity fund of hedge funds with $650M in assets under management in five funds and a managed account platform. The firm previously sold $1.8B (13 funds) to a European bank.
· Supervised the operations team that conducts daily reconciliation and produces monthly NAVs for all funds. Conducted daily review of all fund performance and risk to ensure accuracy in front, middle and back office operations.
· Conducted operational due diligence on prospective hedge funds. Updated Tower Capital's Investment Process© to include a more formalized operational due diligence method.
· Formalized operational policies, procedures and controls by writing the firm's Standard Operating Procedures to bring all operations up to industry best practices. Managed external auditors for completion of all fund audits.
· Launched a $180M managed account platform consisting of a Bermuda Segregated Accounts Company with eight underlying funds. Oversaw the operational due diligence of underlying portfolio managers and negotiate contracts with prime brokers, fund administrators, accountants and other service providers.
· Upgraded the firm's information technology to industry best practices. Developed the firm's strategic IT plan and integrated IT across functional departments in alignment with strategic plan.

Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Compliance Officer

Scout Capital

· Managed the day-to-day operations of an SEC registered $2.5B long/short equity hedge fund consisting of seven entities ­ two offshore funds, two domestic funds and three managed accounts.
· Directed the implementation of a new Investment Management System (IMS), which included a new Trade Order Management System (TOMS) and a new Portfolio Management System (PMS). Conducted due diligence, supervised the implementation team and coordinated multiple vendors to ensure timely and cost effective completion of new systems.
· Established new trading and operating procedures to exploit the efficacy of new IMS across front, middle and back office operations. Ensured complete and seamless transition from legacy trading and portfolio management systems.
· Managed the investment company with responsibility for the development of a $4M annual operations and information technology budget. Implemented cost savings initiative by outsourcing financial model building to an overseas firm.
· Coordinated new office and IT build-out. Saved $250K of planned $3.8M construction and IT budget.
· Negotiated multiple contracts and agreements ­ Prime Broker Credit Facility, ISDAs, research agreements, executing broker agreements, liquidity providers, IT vendors and subleases.
· Managed legal review of contracts to include credit facilities, subleases, employee agreements and research agreements.
· Developed and wrote company Disaster Recovery and Business Continuity Plan. Established the firm's two DR sites.
· Hired key officers and employees to include a Chief Financial Officer, IT Manager and five Research Analysts. Streamlined human resources by implementing new HR software and establishing new hiring and termination procedures.

Director of Operations

Concordia Advisors

· Operations manager for an FSA and SEC registered $2.2B multi-strategy hedge fund. Worked directly with the Chief Operating Officer to manage the daily business operations of the firm and lead special projects.
·   Led the launch of four new funds: an ERISA Multi-Strategy Fund ($100M), a Municipal Opportunities Fund ($85M), a Credit Relative Value Fund ($150M) and an ERISA Fixed Income Multi-Strategy Fund ($25M).
·   Hired key employees including a Chief Compliance Officer, IT Manager and Investor Research Manager.
·   Formalized and wrote the firm's middle and back office Standard Operating Procedures.
·   Coordinated with the IT Manager to develop Business Continuity & Disaster Recovery plans with redundancy among New York, London and Bermuda offices.
·   Successfully met requirements for all books and records during an unannounced SEC audit.

Business Manager, Operations

Eastman Chemical Company

· Interim Chief Financial Officer for Eastman Diagnostics, a start-up company developed within Eastman Chemical Company. Acquired $5M company and closed $1.5M licensing agreement. 
· Developed financial integration plans for new corporation and conducted due diligence, analysis and risk assessment on multiple acquisitions.
· Led a team that implemented a portfolio management tool to enable senior managers to track developing businesses, apply financial rigor and mitigate risk by balancing the portfolio.
· Analyzed, forecasted and developed $16M annual business plan for eighty-four person department.

Financial Analysis Manager

U.S. Army

Captain, ODA 593, 5th Special Forces Group
· Led Special Operations unit capable of training and leading a 500-man foreign military and paramilitary force using host nation's own equipment and communicating in their native language.
· Led deployment to Kazakhstan to train host nation's military for Operation Balance Kayak.
· Planned and supervised 4-month, $14.7M overseas deployment of a 71-soldier Special Forces unit that trained 350- member foreign military organization in light infantry tactics, communications and battlefield medical procedures.
· Primary Special Forces Advisor and liaison to Kuwaiti Army during Operation Desert Fox.
· Developed Operations Plan Crimson Gold, the plan for the US Embassy in Kuwait in the event of a terrorist attack.
· Developed and directed training for foreign military and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency in Deliberate Decision Making Process, Counter-Narcotics Operations and Intelligence Collection & Dissemination.

Captain/Lieutenant, 3rd Ranger Battalion
· Planned and executed special projects for an Airborne Ranger Battalion of 440 personnel capable of no-notice worldwide deployment to conduct Special Operations in support of U.S. policies and objectives.
· Prepared organization to spearhead Operation Uphold Democracy, the planned invasion of Haiti.
· Awarded Army Commendation Medal. Selected for Special Forces Assessment and Selection.

Lieutenant, 82nd Airborne Division
· Leader of a reconnaissance unit that gathered analyzed and distilled information necessary to determine critical elements and provide key intelligence in support of a 650-soldier Airborne Infantry Battalion.
· Rated top junior officer in battalion on Officer Evaluation Report.
· Awarded Army Commendation Medal. Selected above 26 other lieutenants to serve in the elite Ranger Regiment.

Special Operations & Airborne Infantry

Former Green Beret & Airborne Ranger now CEO of Rising Wealth Club & CFO/COO of GrowthLine Capital

I joined Core Bridge Partners and as the former CFO/COO of multiple multi billion-dollar hedge funds as well as two start-ups. I leverage my 20+ years of experience in alternative asset management and my MBA from the Kellogg School of Management to help small and medium sized hedge funds, PE/VC and Family Offices with their operational needs and help grow their companies. I have a proven track record of leading, managing and helping to scale multiple funds.  

My background as a former US Army Special Forces commander ("Green Beret") has equipped me with exceptional leadership, decision-making and problem-solving skills, as well as a strong sense of integrity, loyalty and service. I enjoy working with talented and diverse teams and CIOs , building long-lasting relationships and creating value for my clients and partners.

David Walker

While the "Metabolic Overload score" is not a widely adopted metric, Cagle's underlying argument—that physical infrastructure, particularly energy, could limit AI's growth—is a potential consideration for investors. However, it is not part of mainstream financial analysis...so we'll have to wait a bit and see.  IMHO.

Former Green Beret & Airborne Ranger. CIO, COO, CFO, investor, and author.

Father & Humanist | Strategy Advisor & Scholar | Founder of DecisionDNA

Last week I argued that AI is THE bubble. 
Today I provide the receipts.
We just released the first AI Bubble Index report.

The key number?  132x.

Not a P/E multiple.
A Metabolic Overload score.

AI is deploying capital 132 times faster than the  infrastructure can absorb.
The bottleneck isn’t silicon.
It’s watts.

The Physics of the Wall:
• FERC interconnection completion rate collapsed from 14% → 3%
• 2,900 GW stuck in queue. Only ~3% will ever connect based on our data
• Nadella: “I have chips I can’t plug in.”

He won’t be the only one

Prof. Procyon Mukherjee recently identified the "Hyperscaler Rebellion" against Nvidia, building on Howard Yu's thinking. 
They are right about the shift, and our data suggests the driver isn't only strategy; it's physics.

Some hyperscalers are shifting into "Island Mode": building power islands just to stay alive

xAI is running unpermitted gas turbines in Memphis.
That isn’t innovation. It's triage. And a dash of desperation. 

'Smart money' already sees it: US utility short interest is the highest since 1995.
Shorting the one thing that we all need?

Power?

Warren Buffett would disagree. (Michael M. Terry, CFA - I just did it...)

But the short sellers may have a point

The triggers are already on the calendar:
• CoreWeave credit cliff: March 2026
• Oracle $38B raise while flirting with an S&P downgrade
• Nvidia sits at the center of a circular financing loop that needs liquidity to spin

This is not dismissing the 'promise' of AI. 
AI is real and what it could do is earth-shattering; the valuations are not.

The system’s metabolism can’t keep up.
It will slow because physics can’t be bent.

Full 16-page report in comments. 👇

PS. those who signed up got the draft report on 30 November - thank you for your trust and support. 

#AIBubble #Macro #Metabolism #Infrastructure #DecisionDNA

With the unemployment rate at 4.4%, seems likely that a Fed rate cut will happen in Dec.  But, never forget that all FOMC members are humans.  And humans suffer from bias (political and personal).  Just a fact...about humans.

BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist

Competition for capital is increasing as AI build out becomes more #capital intensive. 

So yes, I care a lot if the #Fed is cutting this December, but in the grand scheme this environment means SECULAR trumps CYCLICAL. 

And it was brought to my attention yesterday, and I thought was good perspective so I am also sharing here, that the last time we had massive infra fibreoptics build out short term real #rate was at 4%.

Very good point.  Stay nimble my friends.

Chief Investment Officer & Member of the Executive Committee at Syz Group ¦ 250,000+ followers

View Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA’s profile

When Zoom ($ZM) was $600/sh in 2020, it had $20 million in income. Now, Zoom is $87/sh with $2 billion in income. What does that tell you about the current AI companies?

Source: Kevin Malone
@Malone_Wealth

This is great for stock pickers and not so great for indexers.

Founder & CEO at Lion Economics | Formerly Wavteq | FDI | Trade | AI

The Most Dangerous Chart in Finance? 

If you read the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist or studies from J.P. Morgan you will have seen "The Chart." 

You know the one: It plots the S&P 500’s P/E ratio against 10-year forward returns. It shows a tight, terrifying line suggesting that at current valuations, our future returns will be very low.

It’s compelling. It’s "statistical." 

Stuart Kirk wrote last week in the FT that he "massacred" his equity funds - selling his entire portfolio worth approaching $1m to move into cash. It’s a drastic, bold move https://lnkd.in/egVw97U2

Before you sell your equity, fueled by the relentless barrage of overvaluation charts and bubble fears, you need to understand why the "The Chart" is fundamentally flawed:

1. Fake Correlation: The chart relies on rolling 10-year periods. That means the data point for Jan 2000 is 99% identical to Feb 2000. This massive overlap creates a fake, inflated R-squared (correlation).

2. The Outlier Trap: The terrifying downward slope is heavily anchored by a single black swan event - the Dot-Com bubble. Remove that anomaly and other black swan events (GFC and Covid), and the "predictive power" is significantly lower.

3. The "New Normal" for P/E: Overvaluation assumptions assume a static world where a P/E of 20x means the same thing in 2025 as it did in 1950. It doesn't. We need a dynamic approach that accounts for structural change:

 - Hardware to Software: The S&P 500 has transformed. In the 20th century, it was capital-intensive industrial/hardware companies. Today, it is dominated by asset-light, high-margin, wide-moat software businesses. These naturally command (and deserve) higher multiples. This also helps to explain why the US market is more "expensive" than most foreign markets.

- Globalization: US companies have a massive global runway for growth that didn't exist 50 years ago. Today, around 40% of US S&P 500 revenues are overseas. 

- Tax & Tariffs: Modern tech/software giants face different effective tax and tariff realities compared to the industrial giants of the past, leading to better after-tax earnings retention.

- The Supply/Demand Squeeze: We are witnessing "De-equitization." The number of US public stocks has roughly halved in 30 years, yet the "wall of money" chasing them (retail apps, passive flows, and foreign ownership now at over 20%) has exploded. Scarcity drives premiums.

I’m not arguing the market is cheap - or that Stuart is wrong. 

And while bubbles do occur, history overwhelmingly shows that time in the market beats timing the market.

I usually post about direct investment more than portfolio investment, but I follow equity and bond dynamics closely and this is one chart I think every investor should scrutinize before acting on.

#Investing #SP500 #Economics #DataScience #StockMarket

Very interesting to see money supply expanding this aggressively even as global central bank balance sheets have been contracting.
What will happen once central banks inevitably need to expand their balance sheets again? 

Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg

View Till Christian Budelmann’s profile

Extreme fear levels

We may have been „bubbly“ a couple of weeks ago, but as of this moment, it’s hard to categorize the market as „frothy“ when CNN’s Fear & Greed index is sitting at one of its most „extreme fear levels“ of the last year.

It’s truly astonishing… the sentiment is (almost) as bearish as it was at the market’s lowest point in the first half of April. That’s not what complacency looks like.

Bergos AG  

Bankhaus C. L. Seeliger KG  

#investing
#markets
#sentiment

Source: CNN (link in the comments section), Bespoke Investment Group / The Bespoke Report, November 21, 2025, page 22 (link in the comments section)

They are correlated to each other because they are both correlated to Global Liquidity.  No surprises here.

Independent Macro Strategist | Financial Markets Commentator | • Historical • Macro Trends • Metals • Energy • Equities • Bonds • Real Estate • Crypto • Systemic Risk | Author of “Beyond The Headlines”

🪙 BITCOIN’S TICKING TIME BOMB? 💣

For me, Bitcoin’s recent decline is just the start of something bigger. It’s meteoric rise hasn’t been a revolutionary shift in finance, but rather a high-risk wager linked to the volatile U.S. tech sector. And if the AI bubble bursts-Bitcoin’s ticking time bomb is likely to explode right alongside it.

🎲 Bitcoin: A Tech Stock Gamble In Disguise
Bitcoin has long been hailed as:
✅ The "great liberator" from traditional finance
✅ The ultimate hedge against economic collapse
✅ The key to unlocking financial freedom
But Bitcoin is a leveraged bet on tech stocks—a digital game of craps. Over the past 13 years, Bitcoin has shown a staggering 94% correlation with the NASDAQ 100 3X Leveraged ETF, making it almost indistinguishable from one of the most volatile financial products in existence.

🔎 Bitcoin's Dirty Little Secret
The NASDAQ 100 is home to the most high-growth, high-risk U.S. companies. These stocks skyrocket during tech booms but crash hard during busts—just like we saw with the Dot-Com Crash in 2000. The 3X Leveraged ETF amplifies those swings:
📈 A 1% gain in the NASDAQ translates to a 3% surge in the ETF
📉 A 2% loss in the NASDAQ causes a 6% plunge in the ETF
And Bitcoin? It mirrors these moves. So, if we’re holding Bitcoin, we’re essentially gambling on tech’s rollercoaster ride.

🔮 What Happens If The Tech Bubble Bursts?
Right now, U.S. equities are in a super-bubble, with tech valuations completely overextended. The NASDAQ 100 is trading at its highest valuation relative to the M2 money supply ever. The only time this level of overvaluation has been seen? Just before the Dot-Com Bubble burst. Back in 2000, the NASDAQ 100 plummeted 84%, while the 3X Leveraged ETF fell by an estimated 99%. With Bitcoin’s 94% correlation to this ETF, Bitcoin could fall 99%, its price crashing from $126K to just $1.26K—a level we haven’t seen since 2017.

🟠 Fool’s Gold?
Bitcoin’s proponents call it "digital gold," but what of gold itself? In the 1970s, it soared 25X—only to crash 70% over the next two decades. Bitcoin—far more volatile than gold—could well suffer a similar fate: a massive crash followed by years of stagnation.

⏳ Is The Bull Run Over?
Gold took 28 years to recover from its 1980 peak. If Bitcoin is destined to be the "digital gold" of tomorrow, it may need to follow the same painful path—years of stagnation.

⚠️ Final Warning
Bitcoin is not a safe haven. It’s a speculative tech play, with all the volatility of a leveraged stock. For those of us who are holding Bitcoin—or thinking of jumping in—now may be the time to rethink our strategy. The truth is, Bitcoin’s ticking time bomb will explode. Just when that occurs, though, is anyone’s guess.

📩 Want To Navigate The Coming Storm?
Subscribe to my free newsletter 👉 https://lnkd.in/eS9HPvh2
 
💬 FYI—Lyn Alden, Scott Melker, Benjamin Cowen, David Morgan, Angus Taylor, Mike Trading, Dante Cook, Eddie Tofpik MSTA, ACI-UK, James Butterfill, Oscar Consuelo

I think it's funny how they drew a line at a certain point in time.  All across the globe, geographic boundaries have changed thousands and thousands of times over dozens of centuries.

Vice President at Northern Trust Corporation | POPM Product Owner Securities Lending | Passion to decipher market moves

Mario Nawfal/Reuters: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 XI ON THE PHONE WITH TRUMP: “TAIWAN RETURNS TO CHINA - THAT’S THE POST-WAR ORDER.” Xi Jinping on a call with Trump:

Taiwan’s “return to China” isn’t negotiable - it’s part of the post–World War II world order.

Xi’s message:
China and the U.S. once fought fascism together - so maybe they should team up again to “protect” the outcomes of WWII.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s government is reading this like, “Yeah, absolutely not.”

And Japan? Already signaling it could respond militarily if China attacks Taiwan - which Beijing is now calling a “diplomatic crisis” because Tokyo said the quiet part out loud.

Xi tried to sweeten the call by bragging that U.S.-China ties have “stabilized” since Trump eased tariffs and Beijing restarted soybean shopping. 

But this line about Taiwan is the real headline.

This wasn’t a request - it was Xi testing how far Trump will bend before the real Taiwan showdown begins.

Interesting perspective.  However, even if we crash, your 2047 breakeven is probably too far off.  American ingenuity + AI + robotics = growth and eventual recovery.  My guess is even with a huge reset in equity markets due to lofty valuations, that America recovers faster than 18 years.  I am betting on Buffett's view of American ingenuity as a cornerstone of the nation's miraculous economic success and an unfailing force for future growth.

🌐 S&P 500: BLIND FAITH IN THE “NEW NORMAL?” 🚨

I’m still watching Wall Street spin its latest narrative with a mix of fascination and growing concern. Strategists insist today’s sky-high stock valuations are not a bubble… it’s the “new normal.” Yet, every time I hear that phrase, my mind drifts back to the truth of 1929, 1966, and 2000.

🎩 FLASHBACK TO 1929
Analysts back then claimed U.S. stocks had reached a “permanently high plateau.” What followed?
💥 An 86% crash
💥 Three years of devastation
💥 Lives and fortunes destroyed

🚨 TODAY’S VALUATIONS
🔺 Buffett Indicator—Highest since the “Roaring 20s” Bubble (1929)
🔺 CAPE Ratio—Highest since the “Dot Com” Bubble (2000)
🔺 Forward P/E Ratio—Highest since 2000, based on projected (not actual) earnings
🤔 And yet, Wall Street assures us it’s all… “normal”

🪦 “THE LINE OF DEATH”
For months, I’ve highlighted what I call “The Line of Death”—a resistance line on the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 that has held since 1966. It repelled markets during:
📈 Nifty Fifty Bubble (1966) ➡️ 65% crash lasting 16 years
💻 Dot Com Bubble (2000) ➡️ 65% crash lasting 9 years
📍 And now, in 2025, we’re hammering that same line again
 
🤖 THE AI NARRATIVE
Every era has its story:
🔷 1966—“The Nifty Fifty” (must-own blue chips)
🔷 2000—“The Internet will change everything”
🔷 2025—“AI is rewriting the future”
🔍 Yes, bubbles always feel rational… until the house of cards collapses

🚨 THE "AI BUBBLE" OF 2025
By some measures, today’s S&P 500 valuation is the highest in 96 years. If the wheel turns full circle:
🔻 S&P 500 could crash 65% over the next 12 years
🔻 From 6,750 points today ➡️ 2,360 points by 2037

⏳ “THE LINE OF PAIN”
What’s worse than a crash? The waiting game:
⛔️ 1966 Peak: Not revisited until 1993 ➡️ 27 years later
⛔️ 2000 Peak: Not revisited until 2017 ➡️ 17 years later

🫀WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US
If there is a reiteration of events… we may not see a return on our S&P 500 investment today until 2047. That means:
👩‍🎓 Aged 20 (graduating) ➡️ Aged 42 before we breakeven
👨‍👩‍👧 Aged 40 (with a family) ➡️ Aged 62 before we breakeven
👵 Aged 60 (nearing retirement) ➡️ Aged 82 before we breakeven
⚠️ Half a working life… just to get back to square one

🙏 WHY I SHARE THIS
I don’t write to scare anyone. I write share what I see—certainly not marketing slogans dressed as strategy. Here on LinkedIn, my commitment has been built around:
📚 Strong research
🎯 Painting a clear picture
💡 Offering insights to help people prosper

✅ Could “The Line of Death” be wrong this time? Yes
❌ Has it ever been wrong before? No

⚖️ FINAL THOUGHT
1️⃣ If Wall Street strategists are right ➡️ we’ll miss some upside
2️⃣ If history repeats ➡️ we’ll avoid a generational setback
🤔 So… do we believe in a “new normal” or do we trust history?

📩 WANT TO NAVIGATE THE COMING STORM?
Subscribe to my free newsletter 👉 https://lnkd.in/eS9HPvh2
 
💬 FYI—Lyn Alden, Patrick Karim, Kevin Wadsworth, Rick Rule, Otavio (Tavi) Costa, Mike McGlone

Best line:  "The American bet is simple: own the most compute, win the AI race."

The US has 5,381 data centers — more than China (449) and every other major nation combined. The American bet is simple: own the most compute, win the AI race.

But China isn’t playing that game.

Instead of chasing data center volume, China open-sourced frontier models (DeepSeek, Qwen, Baichuan) that run on cheap hardware.

DeepSeek trained a frontier model for $5–6M (vs. tens of millions in the US).

Inference costs are ~280x cheaper than ChatGPT.

Modular data centers deploy in weeks, built around ultra-low-cost power.

China isn’t scaling infrastructure. They’re scaling efficiency — and commoditizing intelligence.

Meanwhile, the US is hitting a wall: the power grid.

Data centers already use 6% of US electricity, headed to 11% by 2030.

Spare grid capacity has fallen from 26% → 19%, on track for <15%.

Some regions face 7-year waitlists just to connect new facilities.

Ohio alone rejected 17 GW of new data center interconnection requests.

You can build data centers. But can you power them?

China can.
By 2025, their installed capacity hits 3.99 TW (up 19% YoY). Renewables are nearly half of all generation. In the first five months of 2025 alone:

197 GW solar added

46 GW wind added

By 2030, China is expected to have 400 GW of spare power capacity — over 3× global data center demand.

The US built the most data centers.
China built the power to scale whatever it wants.

The real race isn’t about who has more compute today — it’s who can power their compute tomorrow. And on that dimension, China is pulling ahead.

Source: StockMarket.news, Apollo

Retail #investors and Quants dominate US #stocks #trading 

Source: Empirical research, RBC

Central banks have completely messed up market messaging. First Fed's schziophrenic communications sent Dec rate cut odds from 80% to 30% to 100%, and now the BOJ just send Dec rate hike odds to 80% from 20% ten days ago!

Source: zerohedge

S&P 500 $SPY Put Volume on Thursday was the 2nd largest ever 
Historically this has usually occurred near bottoms 

Source: Barchart

Mate, you are missing the bigger picture.  American consumers have ALWAYS paid the price.  Go back to the last administration, the one before that, and the one before, and again and again and again.  Go back multiple decades...a century even.  It's always the same...the Amercian consumer always pays the price.  Period.  In the words of David Byrne, "Same as it ever was."

Finest Known, LLC - AVP of Client Development - President's Council - Opinions are my own

IMO, So far Trump's #tariffs have #backfired and now he's about to make another big #mistake by adding fuel to the #inflation fire by #cutting rates. 

I believe both Trump and Bessent are truly out of touch with reality on both issues, and unfortunately American consumers will wind up #paying the #price for it. 

Trump & Bessent will actually making the economy #less affordable. Prices are not all down across the board.

Most investors think downturns hit like a lightning bolt. 
History shows they arrive like clockwork. 
Quietly, relentlessly, and long before anyone panics.

I was reviewing century-old market charts late last night, tracing S&P 500 peaks and valleys. The patterns jumped out at me: every major top aligned perfectly with a long-term rhythm few pay attention to. The data didn’t lie — it had been whispering the same story for over 150 years.

What I discovered:
-The Benner Cycle, a 27- and 54-year rhythm, predicted peaks in 1929, 2000, and 2007
-Years labelled “favourable” historically outperformed “unfavourable” by 2–4× with lower volatility
-2026 marks the last high-valuation window before a multi-year strain period
-The cycle reflects structural human behaviour, capital flows, and credit expansion, not headlines or quarterly reports

The market’s calm today isn’t reassurance. It’s a signal. Recognising long-term rhythms allows you to prepare before the crowd even notices the shift.

Are you tracking cycles that could quietly redefine your strategy?

There is always a storm on the horizon...the key is trying to figure out if it will make landfall and/or when.

Vice President, Business Development & Strategy at CheaperTeam | Scaling U.S. companies with top-tier human VA’s in offices worldwide | Fully managed teams in Europe, Mexico, Philippines & Kenya | CheaperTeam.com

🚨 𝗔 𝗕𝗜𝗚 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗠 𝗜𝗦 𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗚! 🌪️⚡

Look at these yields…

- U.S. 10Y is going up.

- U.S. 30Y climbing.

- Australia’s 5Y and 10Y pushing new highs.

- Germany, France, Spain, all drifting higher at the same time.

And yet everyone’s still running around yelling “no recession,” “everything is fine.”

Meanwhile the bond market, which is usually right long before stocks wake up, is basically tapping us on the shoulder saying: “Hey something’s off.”

Here’s why this matters:

When yields rise everywhere, the entire world gets more expensive to finance.

- Governments pay more.
- Corporations pay more.
- Housing slows.
- Credit tightens.
- Consumers pull back.
- Emerging markets get crushed.

None of this hits instantly, it stacks. Slowly. Quietly. Then suddenly.

This is exactly how downturns start: not with a crash, but with a slow, boring climb in yields that everyone ignores because stocks are still pumping.

And that’s the funny thing…

Equities love pretending nothing’s wrong, right up until the moment everything finally breaks.

Bond traders aren’t doomers. They’re just the only ones who don’t fall for the storyline.

So while people are busy arguing about AI, flipping memecoins, or celebrating new ATHs, the bond market is quietly tightening the screws on the entire system.

You don’t need to panic.
You just need to stop acting like rising yields are a background detail.

Every major financial “Uh Oh" moment in the last 30 years started with charts that looked exactly like this.

Pay attention now, or wonder later why nobody warned you.

Source: NoLimitGains

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For anyone interested in investing & market trends, my latest insights and weekly take are out now in my weekly newsletter: check it out here & please subscribe 👇
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Would love to hear your thoughts!🙏

#investing #stockmarket #stocks #wallstreet #finance #economy

Could be FUD.  But...Stay nimble my friends.

According to a Bloomberg article, Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy $MSTR, faces one of its most significant challenges yet: the risk of being removed from major stock indexes like the MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100, according to JPMorgan analysts. 

Such exclusions could trigger up to $2.8B in outflows from MSCI-linked funds alone and threaten nearly $9B of passive exposure tied to the company. A decision is expected by January 15, 2026.

The threat strikes at the core of Strategy’s identity. The firm became a mainstream proxy for bitcoin by issuing stock to buy #bitcoin, then using rising BTC prices to fuel more issuance and accumulation. At one point, the company traded at a large premium above its Bitcoin reserves — but that premium has now evaporated, reflecting weaker investor conviction.

MSCI is reconsidering its index rules, proposing to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets, classifying them more like investment funds. This puts Strategy directly in the crosshairs.

Meanwhile, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s share price have plunged, with the stock down more than 60% from its peak and Bitcoin down over 30% from its recent high—breaking the feedback loop that once boosted Strategy’s valuation with each BTC purchase. Its equity now trades only slightly above the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Despite the pressure, Saylor continues aggressively buying Bitcoin—adding 8,178 BTC this week, bringing total holdings to 649,870 BTC.

Following up on prior posts about the US affordability debate:

This chart from the Financial Times illustrates why housing has become one of the areas of key policy focus for the Administration.

#economy #affordability #housing #markets Financial Times

The People's Economist

-- Founder and developer of fin-tech startup whose goal is to provide leading edge personal finance tools and to democratize availability of financial analytics, data and finance/economics related news. I personally built most of the backend and prototype for the front end. The webapp is currently in early beta testing and is scheduled to be released in the fall of 2022.  

--Global Tier 1 Hedge Fund

Developed a regional housing risk scorecard and analytics for the Spanish residential housing market. The scorecard used a mix of housing, demographic and economic statistics to produce both a heat map and risk score at the regional and subregional level. The analytic tool was used to bid on a $10B portfolio of mortgages in Spain.

--Afghanistan Central Bank: Presented to audit team of Afghan Central Bank. Presentation topic was the role of Central Banks in Financial Inclusion. 

-- Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) Fintech Startup - Working with a fintech startup using Artificial Intelligence to simplify and automate reading of CLO legal docs. The firm aims to revolutionize the way CLO legal documents are analyzed, read and used. Assisted in curating deal documents, developing client checklists,  developed ESG scorecard and client marketing.

 Founder and consultant 

Financial Inclusion Forum UK

Financial Inclusion Forum UK is a network raising awareness of financial services for the poor and sharing best practices.

-- Report directly the board and play the lead role in organizing all events, contents, board meetings and strategy. 

-- Played a critical role in organizing events including Digital ID, financing low-cost private schools, Universal Basic Income for Financial Inclusion Week, Impacting Investing, financing healthcare for the poor.

-- Authored the Digital ID Chapter in a book on regulatory technology. 

-- Played a lead role in organizing a strategy offsite event. 

-- Lead board member recruiting process.

Executive Director

Democrats Abroad

Worked as a volunteer with Democrats Abroad UK. 

Helped lead, organize and conduct knowledge sharing and discussion sessions on various topics including: economic inequality, healthcare reform and higher education.

Contributing author to Democrats Abroad 2020 platform.

Volunteer policy analyst, DAUK

The Grid Cafe

Successfully operated a 7-month cafe pop-up offering creative healthy food including sweet potato waffles, smoothies, yogurt parfaits, designer porridge, and vegan desserts. The Grid was the top rated food service in our delivery area

Director

BRAC USA

I had worked with BRAC since 2007 (beginning as a volunteer, then Advisory Council, Board member and full time). . BRAC's programs include agriculture, healthcare, microfinance, education and social enterprises.

Member of the Interim Executive Committee at BRAC USA. The IEC was responsible for governance and management during a transition between CEOs. 

I have field experience in Bangladesh, Uganda, Myanmar, South Sudan, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

My most recent role for BRAC had been Senior Advisor responsible for supporting BRAC's agriculture value chain programs including development of strategy and fundraising.  Previously I had been Chief Knowledge officer as well as program lead for West Africa and several programming areas including health, financial inclusion, education and agriculture.   

I have been responsible for preparing funding proposals in a range of areas including nutrition, agriculture, livestock, health, microfinance, mental health post-Ebola in Liberia, fee paying schools in Bangladesh, girls education program in Afghanistan and financial inclusion.

I have also worked on social investment related projects with specific focus on an agriculture SME investment fund, a microfinance securitization and investor due diligence related to investment in our West Africa microfinance companies. In addition, I worked on various tasks related to Development Impact Bonds (DIBs).

Senior Advisor

Top Tier Hedge Fund

Developed a regional housing risk scorecard, forecast and analytics for the Spanish residential housing market. The scorecard used a mix of housing, demographic and economic statistics to produce both a heat map and risk score at the regional and local level. The analytic tool was used to bid on a $10B portfolio of mortgages in Spain.

Global Tier 1 Hedge Fund, Consultant

PIMCO

Lead asset Specialist at Pimco Advisory for Structured Finance. Provided  valuation and risk management solutions to world's largest financial institutions and governments.

-- Built a team from 0 to 20 over a 3 year period and managed staff in 3 cities.
	
-- Delivered new models across multiple asset classes including cards, student loans, autos and European RMBS.
	
-- Executed large, complex mandates, under tight deadlines with limited resources.
	
-- Key mandates included the NAIC valuation of 20K individual RMBS bonds. Assignment had meaningful implications for the capital levels of the entire US life and P&C insurance industry. 
 
-- Drove development of macroeconomic forecast process that was far more quantifiable and precise than existing macro process. Process enabled multi-year forecast for several macro variables along probabilistic dimensions. Blended largely qualitative macro expert judgment approach, with more quantitative approach thereby creating a direct, more precise link between PIMCO’s macro expectations and the behavior of specific consumer and commercial loan assets. Approach also created an inherent consistency across asset classes. Also enabled conversion of 5 macro forecasts into a simulation framework. 

-- Participated in meetings with government officials at various levels. as well as round table, chaired by the head of the FDIC.
	
-- Presented at several  industry conferences.
	
-- Developed time tracking and project management templates to improve time and resource management of  team.
	
-- Significantly enhanced PIMCO’s loan level mortgage database including critical fields such as loan modifications, servicers and servicing advances.
	
-- Defended modeling approaches in front of regulators.
	
-- Published several articles with topics including strained consumer balance sheets and the impact of a Euro exit on European RMBS.

TechnoServe

Worked for 2 months on a plan to develop cocoa value chain.

Emerging Enterprise Program Advisor

Credit Suisse

Head of consumer loan securitized research. Led a team of ABS analysts that were top ranked by Institutional Investor magazine for 7 years. Published market leading research on consumer credit during the height of the financial crisis. Covered topics included mortgage loan modifications, consumer bankruptcy, credit card, auto and student loans. Built Wall Street's leading Consumer Asset-Backed bond analytic platform.

During the height of the financial crisis my team's research were frequently sited and sought by the media and regulators and I was consulted for policy input by Department of Treasury and other regulatory agencies.

Moodys Corporation

Rating agency analyst responsible for analyzing and assigning ratings to a range of mortgage-related securities, including prime mortgage, non-prime mortgages, manufactured housing and Latin American MBS.

-- Developed algorithm that detected large RMBS issuers were repurchasing delinquent loans from securitizations in order to allow performance triggers to pass. Our analysis resulted in significant industry changes to deal structures.

Senior credit officer

With over 30 years of experience in the financial services and global development sectors, I am passionate about driving financial inclusion and innovation with AI and analytics.  I have been frequently quoted in the media, including Time Magazine, Forbes, NY Times, WSJ, FT, and Bloomberg.

As the founder and consultant of The People's Economist (www.tpehub.com), a fin-tech startup, I am developing a suite of personal finance tools, news, and information content that will democratize access to financial data and insights for a broad audience. The web app is currently launched in trial.

As the Executive Director of Financial Inclusion Forum UK, a network raising awareness of financial services for the poor, I reported directly to the board and played a lead role in organizing events, content, strategy, and board member recruitment. I have also authored a chapter on digital ID and financial inclusion in a book on regulatory technology, and contributed to the Democrats Abroad 2020 platform as a volunteer policy analyst. 

Throughout my career, I have worked for leading organizations such as Credit Suisse, PIMCO, BRAC USA, and a top-tier hedge fund, developing award-winning research and analytical platforms, advising on large-scale post-crisis bailout engagements, and supporting social enterprises in various program areas.

Rod Dubitsky

Private Squid Games: Athene’s Big Bets Approach100% of Equity 
New Bets include Blackstone Private Credit (PC) and Softbank NAV Loan

“All of you in this room have crippling debts and are now on a cliff edge,” 
--- Squid Games

In 2020, I published an article in a journal, that included “Iron Triangle,” in the title in reference to the trinity of pensions, CLOs and Private Equity. I will now add PC and insurance to the geometric analogy and rebrand it, the Iron Pentagram.

In Q3 Athene disclosed 6 investments that each exceed 10% of equity - of which 5 are affiliated with parent Apollo. Combined, these equal a concerning 100% of Athene’s equity up from 77% in Q2. I discussed 3 of these in my prior Athene article. I will discuss the others below. 

Athene's Big $2B Blackstone Bet

Last week I revealed Athene’s $3.5B Q2 purchases in peer PC debt. Athene also revealed in their Q3 10Q a $2B exposure to Blackstone’s BCRED BDC senior unsecured debt.
 
Athene's investment represents 17% of their archrival’s main (and market’s largest) BDC unsecured debt. Further, Athene's unsecured claim sits behind 60% of secured BCRED debt, as only 40% of debt is unsecured. 
 
How can an independent risk function approve such a large exposure to a sector that Athene is already heavily exposed to.

Digging Deeper – BCRED’s largest investment

In reviewing BCRED’s largest holdings I discovered that their largest exposure, Circana was also placed into a single asset 2024 Continuation Vehicle (CV) by a rival PE firm. Guess who one of two anchor investors in the CV was? If you guessed Blackstone, I will buy you a cup of coffee. 

In my recent post on a collapsed single asset CV, there were similarly top tier PE firms as lead investors. What is the motivation for top tier PE firms to invest in rival single asset CVs?
 
The ties that bind

Apollo “helps” Blackstone by having Athene load up on BCRED debt, Blackstone PE and PC help each other by buying debt and CV equity in one of their investees. This may be just a coincidence and I don’t have evidence otherwise. But... 

Last week, mega LL borrower, Altice accused PC buyers, including Apollo and Ares, of forming an illegal cartel to limit Altice’s ability to restructure their debt. So there’s that.

Athene bets $2B on largest NAV loan

Another top 6 exposure is the largest NAV loan to Softbank's Vision Fund II (VFII). According to Bloomberg, the entire $5.4B loan was expected to be bought by Athene, though as of Q3, Athene only reported $2B. Based on Athene’s Q3 statutory filing, the debt is "rated" Single-A.

$3B AMAPS

Below is all I was able to find on this Apollo related investment: rated Single-A (senior tranche) and BBB (junior).  

These large opaque exposures don't need to default before they have a significant impact on Athene. As they are all investment grade, significant downgrades could place severe pressure on Risk Based Capital.

#privatecredit
#insurance
#privateequity

Founder @ The People’s Economist, Top Ranked Wall Street analyst, journalist, Personal Finance expert

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