CrediLinq.Ai 

We believe that every business should have hassle-free and fair access to capital that enables them to meet their growth aspirations. That is why we are disrupting credit underwriting and designing technology solutions to power business growth for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). 

As a fintech company, we are building a credit lending platform powered by our proprietary artificial- intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms. Our goal is to create a more inclusive, accessible, digital-first and frictionless customer journey where every business can get quicker access to growth capital.

We didn’t want to reconstruct or digitize the credit underwriting process. We wanted to reimagine it, and now we have revolutionized it.

We are also redefining private credit as an asset class. Our platform creates transparency for investors like Impact Funds, Institutional Investors, and Family Offices. 

Our technology allows us to mitigate threats and analyze risk factors way ahead of the traditional financing system. In turn, our data insights and reporting will give investors the needed transparency and peace of mind.

Partner and Chief Investment Officer

FXPRIMUS

Head of Investment Research

Boutique Hedge Fund

Senior Investment Associate - Multi strategy

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Head of South-East Asia banking and markets business controls - Vice President

Business manager - South-East Asia corporate and investment banking 

APAC liquidity management and payments / Treasury management 

Estonian Ministry of Forgein Affairs

I this voluntary role I was involved in consular activities, promoting collaboration between ASEAN countries and the Republic of Estonia . Also, I was responsible for orchestrating events and meetings for delegates and representing the interests of Estonian citizens in Singapore and South-East Asia

Assistant Honorary Consul of Estonia

I am an entrepreneurial and creative problem solver with a can-do attitude. A natural communicator, culturally aware professional, and public speaker with a wealth of experience on TV and other forms of media. I speak and mentor on leadership, career and talent management, as well as financial markets.  

I've been described as adaptable, tenacious and resilient self-starter, and I enjoy work in high-pressure, dynamic environments. I consider myself pragmatic, people centric and result-driven. 

I have more than a decade of experience in financial services industry, having worked for a top-tier investment bank, hedge fund and a regional brokerage house. I am currently a senior executive (CIO and a Board Member) of a financial technology company, responsible for revenue generation, scaling the business, capital raising, and managing a portfolio of stakeholders. 

Professional conduct and impeccable work ethic are always my priorities.

Key competencies:

- Public speaking, Communication and Negotiation;
- Relationship Management;
- Critical Thinking and Strategic Analysis;
- Portfolio and Investment Management with a proven track record;
- Investment and risk management strategies across different asset classes;
- Financial analysis and modelling skills;
- Extreme resiliency and adaptability in high-pressure situations;
- Keen Attention to Detail while maintaining Big Picture focus.

Kaia R. Parv, CFA

I am a Managing Partner with over 20 years of experience in the financial sector, where I have applied my PhD in Financial Econometrics and my extensive skills in investment management, financial risk management, and investments to create value and impact for various financial organizations and initiatives. I have a proven track record of leading and advising on strategy, governance, expansion, and innovation in banking, asset management, wealth management, and regulatory roles.

Currently, I serve as a Non-Executive Board Director and Advisor for several companies, where I leverage my analytical, technical, and leadership skills to support their growth and development in the GCC and the Middle East. Previously, I was the Senior Executive Officer (CEO) and Board Director for ADS Investment Solutions LTD, and the Global Head of Asset Management & Wealth Management for ADSS. I have also published two books and multiple papers on market risk and financial markets contagion, and taught master's courses in finance, mathematics, and statistics. My mission is to use my knowledge, expertise, and vision to foster financial innovation and excellence in the industry.

Ryan Lemand

This headline is familiar for a reason.

Goldman Sachs made a very similar argument the last time gold approached the $2,000 level. The framing was the same then: investors rushing into gold for “safety” were supposedly late, emotional, and about to be punished by a reversal. Yet gold did not collapse. It consolidated, re-based, and eventually moved higher as the underlying drivers strengthened rather than faded.

In earlier posts, I laid out why this cycle is different. Gold is not moving because of panic. It is moving because of structural shifts: central bank accumulation, reserve diversification, geopolitical fragmentation, and declining confidence in fiat balance-sheet discipline. These forces do not unwind because positioning looks crowded or because a sell-side note says sentiment is stretched. They persist precisely because they are policy and strategy driven.

There is also an incentive mismatch worth stating plainly. When investors allocate capital to physical gold or bullion-backed exposure instead of equities, credit, or derivatives, financial institutions lose trading volume, structuring fees, and balance-sheet velocity. Gold held outside the financial system is inert capital. From a bank’s perspective, that is not a feature. It is a problem. So skepticism toward gold at inflection points often says as much about industry economics as it does about market fundamentals.

Source: MarketWatch (Christine Idzelis)

Ryan Lemand, PhD

Founder and CEO | PhD - Financial Econometrics NO MESSAGES ABOUT UNSOLICITED SERVICES Posts for information only & NOT investment advice

Gold is no longer behaving like a hedge. It is behaving like a reserve asset being repriced.

The first chart shows a structural shift, not a tactical one. China has been steadily reducing its holdings of US Treasuries while simultaneously accumulating gold to record levels. This is not about yields or short-term returns. It is about balance-sheet resilience. Treasuries are liquid, but politically encumbered. Gold is inert, but sanction-proof. For large reserve holders operating in a fragmented geopolitical environment, that trade-off now matters more than carry.

The second chart explains why price dynamics have changed. Since 2022, gold demand has been driven by “sticky” buyers: central banks first, ETFs later. Once central banks step in as persistent accumulators, supply elasticity disappears. Bullion markets are shallow relative to the size of sovereign balance sheets, so incremental buying forces prices to clear higher. ETFs then compete for the same limited float, amplifying the move.

This is why gold rallies now look different from past cycles. They are less about fear and more about strategy. When reserve managers start treating gold as monetary insurance rather than an alternative asset, price becomes secondary to availability. And when that happens, gold does not mean-revert easily. It resets.

Sources: Bloomberg

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Copper is moving from a cyclical commodity into a structural bottleneck.

This chart shows a supply gap opening from 2027 onward that widens steadily into the next decade. Even under conservative assumptions, mine supply struggles to keep pace with demand driven by electrification, grid expansion, EVs, data centers, and energy storage. New projects are not arriving fast enough, ore grades are declining, and permitting timelines have stretched to a decade or more. The result is not a temporary imbalance, but a persistent deficit that compounds over time.

What markets often miss is that copper supply cannot respond quickly to price signals. By the time higher prices incentivise investment, the demand has already moved on. That makes this cycle fundamentally different from past booms. If the deficit materialises as projected, copper prices will not just reflect growth expectations, but the cost of scarcity. And scarcity, once embedded in infrastructure, tends to reprice assets for much longer than investors initially expect.

Source: Financial Times

AI adoption is not spreading evenly. It is clustering.

This map is less about technology and more about economic intent. High AI user penetration consistently appears in countries with three traits: advanced digital infrastructure, flexible regulation, and an explicit national strategy around productivity and competitiveness. Where those are missing, diffusion stalls, regardless of talent or population size.

What stands out is that AI is no longer a “frontier market vs developed market” story. It is an execution story. Smaller, agile economies are often outpacing larger ones because they can deploy faster, regulate pragmatically, and align public and private incentives.

The UAE is a clear example of this dynamic. With AI user penetration among the highest globally, adoption has been driven not by hype but by policy coherence: early government mandates, rapid cloud and data infrastructure build-out, and a regulatory environment that allows experimentation at scale. AI in the UAE is treated as economic infrastructure, not a side project, which explains why usage is broad-based across finance, government services, energy, and logistics.

The implication is simple. In the AI era, competitiveness will not be determined by who invents the most models, but by who integrates them fastest into the real economy. Adoption, not headlines, is becoming the true divider.

Source: https://lnkd.in/e9BUPvAs

Gold as the scene-setter

Gold does not move last. It moves first.

This chart shows gold relative to financial assets over five decades, and the message is consistent: when gold starts outperforming stocks and bonds on a sustained basis, it usually signals a broader repricing of real assets. Not because gold is special, but because it reflects stress in the monetary and financial layer.

What matters today is not that gold has risen, but that even after the move it remains historically cheap relative to financial assets. That combination has typically preceded cycles where commodities, energy, and hard inputs reassert pricing power. Gold is not the trade. It is the signal.

Source: Bloomberg

Oil Refining Capacity

China has quietly become the world’s largest refining powerhouse, edging past the US with 18.5 million barrels per day of capacity vs 18.4mb/d in 2024.
​
For leaders in energy, this isn’t just a supply story; it’s a signal of where downstream margins, petrochemicals, and eventually geopolitical leverage may concentrate next.

Source: Post factum

The decline of the dollar is not a headline event. It is an accumulation process.

This chart shows a slow but persistent shift in how institutions manage reserves. Over two decades, the US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has trended lower, not because the dollar suddenly stopped working, but because concentration risk has become explicit.

Reserve managers optimise for liquidity, safety, and optionality. As US fiscal deficits widen, sanctions weaponisation increases, and geopolitical blocs harden, diversification becomes rational rather than ideological. Even small, incremental reallocations compound over time when applied at the scale of central bank balance sheets.

This is not a collapse story. The dollar remains dominant in trade invoicing, funding markets, and global debt. But dominance is being diluted at the margin. Gold, alternative currencies, and bilateral settlement arrangements are increasingly used not to replace the dollar, but to reduce dependence on it.

The mistake is to frame this as de-dollarisation versus the dollar. The real shift is from a unipolar reserve system to a more distributed one. That transition is slow, uneven, and largely invisible in the short term. But structurally, it is already underway.

The way the world is hedging for this is through buying gold.

Source: Bloomberg

This chart puts today’s AI narrative back into historical proportion.

Every major productivity leap has followed the same pattern: a long period of skepticism, then a sharp and concentrated surge in capital expenditure once the economic use case becomes undeniable. Railroads, electrification, automobiles, computers, and software all went through this phase. What stands out now is scale. The projected investment in AI software and AI data centers, measured as a share of GDP, exceeds anything seen in prior technological waves.

That matters because this is not consumer hype or speculative adoption. It is hard capital. Data centers, chips, energy infrastructure, and software platforms are being built ahead of demand because the marginal productivity gains are already visible. Once an investment cycle reaches this stage, it rarely stops because of valuation debates. It stops only when physical or financial constraints appear.

The implication is uncomfortable for skeptics and optimists alike. This is unlikely to be a short-lived boom, but it also means returns will not be evenly distributed. In every past cycle, the biggest winners were not the most exciting narratives, but the companies controlling infrastructure, distribution, and pricing power. History suggests AI will be no different.

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC

Interview on Bloomberg earlier today with Joumanna Bercetche with still some snow on her shoes following her recent return from Davos:

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen".

With Tump 2.0, it feels exactly that!

The 5 sigma move of silver prices yesterday are a rarer occurance than winning the lottery.

Greenland, tariffs on, tariffs off, ICE (ice ice baby), China, Russia, Iran and then there is Japan:

JPY is trading Japan, not the USD
A weaker DXY does not help if domestic fundamentals dominate FX pricing.

Higher JGB yields reflect risk premia, not clean tightening
Markets are pricing supply, fiscal slippage, and reduced BOJ support. That is FX-negative.

Real yields remain unconvincing
Nominal yields are up, but real return expectations are still weak or unstable.

No meaningful repatriation flows
Japanese insurers and pensions are not bringing capital home at scale.

BOJ credibility caps JPY upside
Markets doubt the BOJ will tolerate sustained yen strength or much higher yields.

Carry trades unwind slowly and unevenly
Positioning adjusts with delay and policy confirmation, not just yield moves.

Japan remains a structural capital exporter
Funding-currency dynamics penalize JPY even when the USD weakens.

Bottom line:
Rising yields are pricing Japan risk, not Japan strength.

Thank you Shruthi Rajendran for having me again, always a pleasure to be on Bloomberg with Joumanna!

https://lnkd.in/duxsVxV6

Open video: Interview on @Bloomberg-News on January 26th, 2026 on youtu.be

Interview on @Bloomberg-News on January 26th, 2026

The real constraint is not technology, it’s materials, so investing in shovels makes more sense than the tech, which will evolve and make many existing companies obsolete.

The energy transition and electrification narrative assumes inputs will simply appear.

This chart shows otherwise. Within a decade, key minerals like copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt face double-digit supply gaps even under optimistic project assumptions. These are not marginal shortages. They are structural mismatches between ambition and physical reality.

This is why inflation in the transition economy is not a policy error, but a resource problem. You cannot scale power grids, batteries, data centers, and AI hardware without raw materials. And raw materials obey geology, not spreadsheets. The transition will happen, but it will be constrained, repriced, and far less smooth than most models assume.

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)

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