University of Uncertainty

Founder

Bloomberg LP

FX & Commodities Derivatives Business Manager

FX Derivatives Business Manager

Financial Engineer Team Leader

UBS Investment Bank

Rates & FX Product Valuations

Morgan Stanley

FX Hybrids Trader

Barclays Capital

FX Long Dated Trader

Rates Quant Analyst

I'm Nuno, and at age 46, I've decided to terminate my *serious career*.

Why?

I love learning. I love working. I love creating *meaningful* value.

But the world got to a point where NONE of this is truly possible within the prevailing systems.

The root problem?

>>The dominant THINKING paradigm!


I found this sentiment is shared by many who have a sense of URGENCY that we must go BEYOND the *Data-driven*, *Bayesian-driven*, *Scientism-driven* and *Optimization-driven* understanding of the world.

That includes:

1/ AI SCIENTISTS who are seeking innovative ways of thinking to make sense of the world (...beyond the *Bayesian-driven* approach)

2/ MISFIT THINKERS who crave to explore the subjective, emergent dimensions of reality (...beyond the *Data-driven* paradigm)

3/ PORTFOLIO MANAGERS who are looking for unconventional ways to navigate market uncertainty (...beyond the *Optimization-driven* tactics)

4/ INSATIABLY CURIOUS QUANTS who want a deeper understanding of both risk and uncertainty (...beyond the *Scientism-driven* models)

5/ LEGACY-DRIVEN ENTREPRENEURS who want to build products addressing today's crises (...beyond the *Tech-driven* shiny objects)

6/ COACHES DISILLUSIONED WITH THEIR INDUSTRY who seek transformative frameworks of personal growth (...beyond the *Mechanistic-driven* goal setting)

>>Does ANY of these DEEPLY resonate with you?

Nuno Reis, PhD

You've been lied to. Here's what Peter Drucker REALLY said (and is the exact opposite):

"By the time it can be captured in numbers, it's too late"
—'The Effective Executive', page 17


So, how come the opposite FALSE narrative took over?...

Let’s unravel the LIES of modern Risk Management,
and how they are deceiving you!


//THE QUOTE
It started with V. F. Ridgway’s 1956 quote:

"What gets measured gets managed"

Yet, Ridgway was WARNING how metrics distort and damage organizations.

The FULL quote is:

"What gets measured gets managed—even when it's pointless to measure and manage it, and even if it harms the purpose of the organisation to do so"

Somewhere along the way, this warning got twisted into 'metric gospel'.

And Drucker?
Dragged into the mess...


//THE BIG LIE
The twisted quote started to be attributed to Drucker.

But he said something different:

Drucker argued that executives must use their 'perceptual thinking' (not logic) to capture OPPORTUNITIES over waiting for 'facts'.

Why?

Because once something becomes a 'fact', it's already too late.

If anything, he was advocating 'Rare Dots' — 
not (past) facts!


//MCKINSEYS GOLD RUSH
But then came the 1980s.

IT systems like SAP and Oracle made everything measurable.

McKinsey smelled opportunity and needed authority to sell it.

So they did the unthinkable: 

Turn Drucker’s wisdom into a slogan.

After all,
"You can't argue with Drucker, can you?"


//INTELLECTUAL DISHONESTY
There was just one little problem:

Drucker's actual ideas were too nuanced,
too sophisticated, 
too... 'uncommercializable'.

McKinseys' solution?

Pure audacious genius:

>>Don't reject Drucker's wisdom — REENGINEER it! 

Take his insights → Remove nuance → Create simplified version (that justifies their services) → Turn into a power tool

Et voila!

"If you can't measure it, you can't manage it"

Short.
Punchy.
Authoritative.

Never mind that Drucker never said it.

Never mind it came from a WARNING about measurement dangers.

It's like quoting Orwell's 1984 to sell SURVEILLANCE manuals!

A deceptive, brilliant move...

---
Look around:

The real lie isn’t the quote.

>>It’s the system that's deceiving everyone into a Big Lie.

How many more lies can YOU see?

- Consultants see it
- Risk managers see it
- Economists see it too (well... maybe not all)

But few stop playing pretend.

They believe their lives will collapse if they do so.

IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE THAT WAY

You don’t need to 'burn the boats'.

You just need to build a little Trojan Horse the system itself can’t play pretend.

>>That's what we do in our Rare Dots community.

Join us in one of our Friday calls to get a taste.

Register your interest here:

https://lnkd.in/e-ZQ_Y_E

PS: You don’t need permission to stop lying to yourself

💡Nuno Reis

CorsicaLinea

Chargé SI Applicatif Reservation

AZQORE SA

• Involved in all stages of SDLC including requirements definitions with client, scoping note preparation,
budget projections and implementation timelines.
• Managed functional integrations with core banking solution by defining data models and business process management with client, integrator, data architects and domain experts.
• Weekly reporting meetings with C-level executives to manage expectations, align objectives and ensure appropriate resource allocations.
• Monthly steering committee meetings with senior executives to communicate progress, delivery targets, risks and budget evolution.
• Organized monthly demos for business to communicate implementation details and ensure stability of
MVP requirements. Demo results and discussion points integrated into Sprints with daily stand-ups to
continually monitor progress and ensure focus on delivering value.
• Managed interactions between business and implementation teams through Jira projects using Scrum
methodologies where applicable. Used tickets to manage bugs as work was iteratively delivered and
continuous testing cycles.
• Managed multiple projects, ranging in size from 50 man-days to over 1000, simultaneously with
international development team spread across Switzerland, Singapore and India including architects,
business analysts, technical leads, subject-matter experts, and developers.
• Largest project focused on integrating core banking solution with third party provider to manage daily ETL
cycles for limit calculations for non-linear structured products.
• Specified, designed and coded Java MVP to integrate vendor REST endpoints to accelerate client’s time-to-market and testing abilities when offshore sites unable to meet challenging deadlines presented by client.
• Managed CRM integration project with client, CRM provider (Salesforce) and client side integration
provider (IBM) to facilitate on-boarding and CLM processes using a loose-coupling paradigm to reduce
bottlenecks.

Senior Project Manager

Natixis

•	Scrum Master for team of 14 developers and analysts developing pricing engine component in Scala/Java of global market risk program for X-Asset PV generation of structured derivatives.  
•	Pushing hard to integrate full DevOps paradigm into product lifecycle management notably investment and prioritization of CI/CD tools, functionality and related paradigms.
•	Responsible for continuous management of team objectives using the SAFE framework and related artifacts using Jira.  Focused on value creation and management of waste in product development cycle.
•	Regularly present and discuss objectives and key results with stakeholders to ensure engineering and business objectives remained aligned.
•	Strong believer in the lean enterprise philosophy.

Consultant MOA/BA - Pricing Services Team

SFIL

- Validation of internal pricing library between Excel and Summit including C++ debugging between interfaces.
- Implementation of REST API Client in Python for Gemini task management system including fully configurable and automated reporting interface.
- Development of numerous Python applications for analysis, conversion and regression of numerical data using Pandas.
- Consulting for implementation of DevOps and Continuous Delivery paradigms  to accelerate delivery cycles while maintaining code quality.

Consultant MOA - Structured Products

•	Pricing and Risk Model Validation – empirical evaluation of P&L regressions during quantitative library upgrades using excel and Cube databases.  
•	Development of automated validation tools using Python – implemented prototype validation tools integrated python/excel interface to automate manual solutions.

Linxea

•	MS CRM configuration and API development – responsible for implementation of MS CRM solution.  
•	Design and Implementation of Hyper V development/UAT environments – evaluated multiple virtual machine applications before deciding on MS HyperV solution.  Acquired skills to install and configure HyperV on MS 2008 server platform and used extensively to provide UAT testing environments for MS CRM implementation.
•	Data Center Migration - design and implementation – planned organized and implemented migration of data servers from office environment into data center. 
•	Implementation of Fortigate security products into multiple locations to enhance security of multi-site operations using VPNs and provide tools to monitor and restrict access to internet from workstations in multiple offices.

Consultant

Danske Bank

•	Project plan development, project management, team training and coordination between IT and business including FO, Quants and risk management – general support to multiple teams and projects when necessary.  Provided written and oral support to secure advancement of projects as bridge between business units.
•	Design, development and implementation of build/release tools and source code control - transformative contribution on automating provisioning and change management by developing solutions using unix shell tools to demonstrate increased efficiencies when working with complete per developer Summit environments.  Dramatically increased developers ability to maintain testing/UAT environments an integrate source code into automatic, self-building UAT environments.  Work was a catalyst to starting first steps towards a continuous integration environment.
•	UAT design and testing for multiple projects using HP Quality Center/Test Director – set-up and documentation of test cases and workflow to facilitate complete testing of new solutions and reduce issues before moving into production.
•	Integration/migration of electricity derivatives during acquisition of Sampo Bank.  Provided support in Pnl regression analysis during acquisition to ensure pricing integrity between both Summit systems.
•	Integration of on-site pricing model/product development IR and FX derivatives – Summit FT and classic financial APIs
•	Integration of SABR pricing model for vanilla swaptions in close collaboration with Quant team using Summit FinApi in classic environment.
•	Customization of Bermudean callable swaption with knock-in/knock-out triggers and integration with proprietary quantlib using XML data entities mapped to Summit data-model extensions. Implemented using the MUST platform including coding of MUST API and graphic interface.

HSBC

•	Technical PM with three developers and business analyst to implement straight through processing trading system for exotic and vanilla credit derivatives systems.  Responsible for migrating existing CDS portfolio from legacy risk/pricing application to STP solution as business was not able to keep up with trade volumes and manage operational risk of CDS documentation for exotics.  System was in production in less than 18 months using limited resources.
•	Liaised with all key areas including business, back office, audit, risk management through scheduled meetings, interviews and ad hoc discussions.  Worked with numerous staff in both New York and Londong to ensure a timely implementation of project and integrate multiple - sometimes conflicting – requirements of different business units.
•	Calypso API development and integration – acquired skills to configure and customize the Calypso trading system from both a user and developer perspective.  
•	Authored feasibility study for implementation of system across business areas including cost/benefit analysis.

Project Manager - Calypso Implementation for Credit Derivatives

•	Managed two developers in running in-house trading system with support of financial engineers. Liaised with all areas of IT support infrastructure (DBAs, systems engineers, change management, etc...)

IT Manager - Quant team

Misys Banking Systems

•	Managed several large European clients including lead manager of largest Italian client Coordinated on-site and telephone support of ten consultants and managers
•	Involved in business development, pre-sales, project planning and implementation, CRM and life cycle/quality management
•	Distributed computing applications and architecture enhancements

Application and system development in Banking and Finance
Project management in design and implementation teams
Development in multiple programming languages

Specialties: IT project design and implementation
Team building, communication and conflict resolution
Technology integration from cost/benefit perspective

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