Grow your investment boutique 📈 Founder / CEO @ Havener ⭐ $30B AUM for boutiques w/ The Billion Dollar Blueprint™ 💲 Story-led sales & marketing for founders, fund mgrs, and teams 🎤 Speaker ▪ Podcast Host

Hi, I’m Stacy - a blue-collar girl from the Berkshires who turned a way with words and love of numbers into a business that has raised billions for boutique asset managers.
 
I’ve raised $8B+ for new/undiscovered funds that led to $30B+ in follow-on AUM.

Being a female founder in the male-dominated investment industry at the age of 30 required a huge leap of faith in connecting two tribes: talented boutique asset managers and early adopter investors.

The leap of faith was spot on. 

10+ years later, Havener Capital Partners leads the industry in helping investment boutiques grow. We help clients in three ways: (1) Embedded as part of your sales and marketing team (2) Consulting on sales and marketing efforts with you (3) Coaching you and your team in our membership community

Whether it’s consulting and masterminds, expanding sales and marketing capabilities, or connecting to our network of RIAs and family offices, clients benefit from an expert team and a time-tested framework that has raised billions for boutiques.

If I can be of assistance, please reach out at stacy@havenercapital.com

A little more about me: 

I’m obsessed with all things old school – hip-hop music, classic cars, craft cocktails and vintage furniture. My best lessons in life were learned on the soccer field where I went from picking flowers at the age of 9, to playing on all-boy teams, to becoming an Academic All-American in college. 

Most days you will find me at our office in the city-by-the sea, Newport, RI, sitting next to my reggae-loving husband (who is also my business partner), with a Dunkin Donuts coffee in my hand, and our rescue pitbull at my feet. In addition to building a business together, Erik and I are raising a daughter which is by far my favorite adventure. 

At the heart of it all, there is one thing I believe in – underdogs. Doesn’t matter who we are or what industry we are in, we all start from the bottom; we have all been underdogs. This rebel spirit fuels me every day.

Stacy Havener

I closed more deals when I stopped trying. 


Don't get me wrong, I worked my tail off to help clients raise money. 

But I had to unlearn a deeply ingrained thing for many of us. 

Let's back up. 

People do business with people they
know
like
and trust

That part we all know.

But there is a danger here 👇

The "liking" principle (from Robert Cialdini)
isn’t about being liked by everyone.

That’s where it goes sideways.

Because when “liking” turns into people-pleasing, a few things happen:

We soften our edges

We dilute our point of view

We spew data and stats like a firehouse 

We aim for approval instead of alignment

And ironically…

That makes us less influential.

Real liking comes from clarity.
From conviction
From standing for something
(and not for everything)

It's from the heart, not the head.
(which is where stories shine)

In our work, we see this all the time:

The most trusted leaders aren’t universally liked

They’re distinctly remembered

They repel a little

And resonate a lot

(gah I love that ❤️ putting it on a post it on my laptop)

That’s how trust is built.
That’s how influence compounds.

🎥 In this video, I unpack how to use the liking principle
without losing your backbone.

Because the goal isn’t to be liked by everyone.
It’s to be unforgettable to the right ones.

📌 "This is me" - can that be a vibe for us this year?

Work travel looks glam, but it's a grind. I coped in 1 way v non glam way. 

(There are lessons I am revisiting in 2026 here.)

When I traveled my face off for work, I cooked my face off too. 😂

-- Before trips, to ground myself.

-- After trips, to come back into my body.

Here’s the tell my family learned to watch for:

The higher my stress, the more serious the cooking.

(sooo I was a pressure cooker. eye roll, drum beat 🤣)

If a whole chicken was roasting at 7am, a big trip was coming and I was dreading it.

When I got off the road, I set the cooking utensils down. 
The recipe books went back on the shelf. 
The stove cooled off.

Dusting it all off this year.

I grew up in an Italian family.

Food was never just food.

It's connection and belonging.

Garlic and onions sautéing in olive oil isn’t just a smell to me.

It’s a memory track of my life.

For the last few years cooking became practical.

Weeknight dinners.
Holiday cook fests only.

Until yesterday.

As we welcomed a long weekend and falling snow, I made one of my Italian grandfather’s recipes.

My favorite dish as a kid: Pasta Fagioli. 

I spent 45 minutes in silence chopping the battuto.

Just rhythm.
Texture.
Smell.

One bite of the pasta fagioli and I was back in my grandparents’ house.

Every comforting memory came back.

(It felt like the magical realism of the book/movie Like Water for Chocolate one taste, all the feelings.) 

Here’s the lesson I am carrying into the year ahead:

We live in our heads all week.

Strategy
Pressure
Problem-solving

*Thinking* our way through everything.

But there are five other senses available to us.

Touch
Smell
Taste
Sound
Sight

When we tap into them, we access parts of our creativity that thinking alone can’t reach.

Sometimes the reset we need isn’t another insight.

It’s a knife
A cutting board
And garlic hitting warm olive oil

It's getting out of our heads so when we come back into them, we are rejuvenated and fresh. 

📌 What dish takes you back to childhood?? (I will put my grandfathers Pasta Fagioli recipe below)

Happy weekend.
Stay storied. 

PS This is what chatgpt thinks I'd look like cooking in an Italian kitchen. Sign me up!

7 days, 20 foot ceilings, and big dreams.


Come inside the mansion we rented for our annual leadership meetings! 

The places, spaces, and settings matter in our stories. 

What would happen if you changed up where you are as you plan for where you are going...

A behind the scenes look at Havener's home base for strategic planning with a mansion walk and talk. 🏰

👉 Have you had this experience where place changed your perspective? Tell me more! 🍿

Here's to a new year, big dreams, and a bright future. Let's go!

I built my biz for the underdogs.

And if I’m honest… I still feel like one.

That identity runs deep.

I’ve always been wired to:

-- Fight for the overlooked

-- Bet on the underestimated

-- Stand for the people others ignore


I take pride in that.

My purpose is there.

But here’s the question I’ve been sitting with lately:

Can I stop being the underdog
and still stand for them?  

Can I serve challenger brands and founders while owning my achievements and success?

Can I acknowledge there's more I want to do and achieve without entirely discounting what I have accomplished?

---

Because at some point, there's a shift.

One day you realize:

-- People reference my work before I enter the room

-- The rooms I once fought to get into now invite me in

-- The voice I worked so hard to claim now carries weight

And still…

My nervous system hasn’t caught up.

---

I spent so many years scrapping.

Proving I belonged

Fighting to be taken seriously

Climbing toward success

That kind of fight is hard to turn off.

Even when my own personal fight has changed.

---

Here’s the tension I’m holding:

If I keep saying I am an underdog

If I stay in permanent resistance mode

If I never acknowledge my success


What message am I actually sending?

---

Maybe standing for the underdogs doesn’t mean staying one.

Maybe acknowledging progress doesn’t make me arrogant, it makes the path visible.

Maybe saying “this worked” gives the next generation of challengers something powerful:

Hope.
Positivity.
Proof.

---

So I’m learning a new posture.

Keep the heart of the challenger

Lose the need to bleed for legitimacy

Lead from consistent confidence instead of constant fight

(gah. that need to bleed for legitimacy is hiiiiiitting me 😭 )

---

I am not abandoning the underdogs.

I am showing them what’s possible.

And I’m learning that sometimes the bravest move isn’t to keep finding my fight 

It’s embracing my success to help the next generation fight theirs

---

If you’re a founder who grew up scrappy
and strugglednto let that scrappy go…

You’re not alone.

I’m right here too.

Scrappy and successful. Can they co-exist?

4 fact sheet changes that get more meetings

Fact sheets / tear sheets are doing too much… and somehow not enough.

They’re packed with data.
Light on words.
Heavy on brain.
Empty on heart.

And that’s the miss.

Typical fact sheets are a data dump in the smallest imaginable font.
Flip the script: It’s a highlight reel.

Its job with prospects is simple:

👉 Make them want a meeting.

Here are four fixes to move the needle:

---

1. Include real uniques + differentiators

Not the eye roll "everyone says that" kind

“Strong risk-adjusted returns”
“Experienced team”
“Disciplined process”

Let’s be honest, that’s table stakes. 
Fails the truism test.

The real differentiators tend to live in:

• Philosophy - how you think
• Process - how you execute
• Portfolio - how you build

Those are harder to copy.

And far more sustainable than performance soundbites.

---

2. Add a narrative summary

What’s the story?

• Why this strategy
• Why now
• And most importantly, why you

If allocators can’t understand the why in 90 seconds, they probs won't take a meeting.

Story creates intrigue and curiosity.
Data supports and makes it real

---

3. Be explicit about the role in the portfolio

This one gets mislabeled as “too retail.”

It’s not.

It’s useful.

Think of it as:

• Idea generation for analysts
• Context for non-investment stakeholders
• Clarity for busy humans

Don’t make people do the work.
They’re already overloaded.

That’s not retail.
That’s real life.

---

4. Show the people behind the product

Yes include fund mgrs on the fact sheet.
Now, add photos.

Names + faces + something human beyond alma maters.

People do business with people.
Still true. Always will be.

Pro-tip: If your photo makes you look like Severus Snape, time for a new one. Let's not scare the prospects. 😬

---

These small tweaks to a fact sheet don’t dumb anything down. 

Less data isn't a sign you aren't smart.
It's a sign you understand decision are more than numbers.

Fact sheets get a bad rap. 
But I think they have a starring role with a prospect.

They answer so what? Why should anyone care?

And when your fact sheet does that?

You don’t just get more meetings.
You get better ones.

📌 What's your 1 add for a fact sheet improvement list?

=
+ Fact sheets are part of a foundational franework at Havener, Investable Content™️ 

+ Bc collateral shouldn't just look pretty, it should play a role in your distribtiion

Every company is a media company. (imma keep saying it bc I want you to hearmenow) (and also flowers 💐)

Very few firms in finance embrace this idea that 'every company is a media company.'

Potomac is one. And they don't just kinda do the thang. They go all in.

Here's what hit me on my visit to their office:

1.  A bada$$ recording studio might feel like a luxury, but I'd argue at some point in the future, it might not be a luxury as much as a necessity.

2.  The trick with "every company is a media company" has less to do with the logo on the wall and more to do with the people who bring that logo to life. 

3.  I might invite myself back to "my" studio in "their" office v v soon. 🤣

Wouldn't it be cool if Billion $ Backstory became "in studio" podcast on the Potomac platform?

(Whaa? Who said that? me looking left looking right 😉)

If you want to catch the whole podcast - go to the platform that starts with You and ends with Tube. And I'll pop a shortcut in here asap.
https://lnkd.in/e_2VwDGe

Flowers and hugs and high fives across the miles to some of my all time faves
Manish Khatta and Christopher Norton and Charlotte Jarvis 

Thank you for being awesome 💐

If you don't know, now you know.
If you don't follow them, you should.

undefined undefined

Newsletter

📌 Got the investment skills, but need marketing help? We've got you.
Email Dustin Sullivan 
dustin (at) havenercapital (dot) com



Client Acq

havenercapital

billion-dollar-backstory

You can pitch performance and some people will buy it. (Let's unpack it tho...) 


Lots of ways to fundraise. 

If you've got great performance you might want to pitch it. Hard.

-- Redo materials! Put performance right up top front and center and lots of charts that show it too. 

-- Talk about how poorly your peers are doing to really shine a light on how you are crushing it.

-- Say your core values are to be number 1. (eek) 

Some investors (maybe lots) will buy that performance pomp and circumstance. 

You will cue up Mike Posner Top of the World. 

And then...

Something v normal will happen.

Your performance will slip 

Because you got too big too fast and can't move the portfolio

Or because the market did what the market does and wiled out on you

For whatever reason, you had a normal pull back 

And the investors who bought your out-performance?

Now they redeem your underperformance

The other investors in the fund will see that investors are redeeming, so they will hit the sell button too

And the virtuous performance upswing you raised into will whipsaw into a vicious redemption spiral

(if you've seen that movie before you know it's fun times 🙄(

So... yes, there are lots of ways to fundraise

Pitching performance is one of them

It can work

But it's worth pausing to reflect on what you will get and who you will get in that process

Hot dot chasers buy performance
They redeem it too

Classic tale of be careful what you wish for

My POV: pitch forever vs fleeting

Will be breaking it down this week. 

We can be proud of our results and still focus on the sustainable things that got us there. 

Might take longer but might be worth it in the long run.

1 mistake I have made in sales & marketing (and how we can learn from it)

This mistake happens to asset management and wealth management clients too. 

It sneaks up on you. It happens slowly over time. (kind of like a big snowstorm 😂)

The mistake?

*Crafting messaging around what your client needs and skipping what they want.*

Our prospects are at Point A and they want to get to Point B. We know what they need and often that's what we "sell."

Let's take wealth managers:

Their prospects aren't jazzed to get a financial plan. No one wants more documents. (even if that's what they need)

They are jazzed for the financial freedom that plan will create. 
Or the second home they can buy
Or the business they can finally start
(insert the end goal that they want)

---

Talking about what a client needs isn't as hard-hitting or as heartfelt as if we talk about what they want, where they want to go.

Breaking it down for asset managers (and myself) at a crazy cold beach
❄️🎥🌊

👉 Here for your tips on staying aligned with the end game in our client's journey.

1 big change to our target market of asset managers and wealth managers - might inspire you to refine yours.

We just wrapped our 2-day annual planning session.

In a crazy awesome Newport mansion
Because environment shapes thinking and we wanted to dream bigger.

But instead of going bigger with our target market...

We went smaller.

We went clearer.

Check it:

---

In defining target market, most of us will start with demographics.

• AUM
• Titles
• Firm size
• Geography

The challenge is we can get stuck in a big sea of "everyone is our market."

Demographics can be quicksand.

Predictable
Generic 
Crowded

---

The real leverage in target market lives in psychographics.

That’s where alignment happens.

We already knew our ideal clients:

• Share our core values
• Believe in the power of story
• Want a more human way to grow

What we hadn’t explicitly named?

---

Personal brand.

Not just believing in story,
but believing they are part of it.

We have it in our differentiators as a firm but we didn't have it in our target market. 

So we refined. 

Our ideal client has a founder or C-suite leader committed to

•  Building a personal brand
•  Showing up on LinkedIn
•  Being seen

A  person who is jazzed to become a thought leader in their unique area of expertise

---

That small shift will change everything

• Who we say yes to
• How the work lands
• The results we can create

Because story doesn’t work in the shadows.

---

Big dreams don’t require broader markets.

They require braver ones.
 
And braver can mean smaller focus. 

📌 Have you found what a client believes (or doesn't) matters in your target market (maybe more than we realize)?

=
+ If you want help on LinkedIn in 2026, I got some things cooking. DM me and I will add you (or your team) 👀 to our wait list 🙌

5 filters to set goals for an amazing year of growth. 
 
We use these with clients in annual business strategy sessions. 

And we use them on ourselves. 

---

1️⃣ Did we reverse engineer from long-term vision to short-term goals?

- Start with the 10-year vision

- Pull it into 3 years

- Then 1 year

- Then the next 90 days

Humans can focus and execute well for shorter sprints (quarter by quarter).

Design our goals such that if we hit quarterly goals, we will be on track to hit annual, if we hit annual, we will be on track to hit 3 yr and so on.

Set the long term vision
Work back to the year
Then play the next 90 days like they are high stakes. (cuz they are)

---

2️⃣ Are we driving forward with metrics we can actually control? 

Goals that depend on other people? Rough.

Instead, ask: 
what’s the step right before the result we want? 
The one we can ensure we hit. 

We can’t control outcomes.
We can control inputs.

That’s where progress lives.

---

3️⃣ Are we measuring backwards to protect confidence and juice momentum?

We’re excellent at this pattern:

Hit the goal

Move the goalpost

Feel behind again

When the reality is we just accomplished something meaningful... but we missed it.

Measuring backwards is a pause.

It reminds us:

- how far we’ve come

- what’s already working

- why we’re capable of the next level


For my quant friends, confidence compounds too. 😘

---

4️⃣ Are we trying to do less better? (bc less is more)

1–3 big things

Not 5–7 “important” things

(forget 10 omg 10 is an anxiety spiral)


We’d rather:

do 3 things exceptionally well

than 5 things halfway decent


Focus isn’t restrictive.
It’s freeing.

We said no to some really cool business opportunities for 2026 bc we want to focus on our core programs. 

It's the same reason we are pausing on our annual summit too. 

Tough choices but necessary. 

(I am learning and still a work in progress on this one.)

---

5️⃣ Does it light us up?

Seriously - a fun filter 😉

Is the goal interesting?
Is it meaningful?
Is it fun? 

This one matters more than we admit.

If it doesn’t make us:

energized

enthusiastic

eager to start the day


Why are we doing it?

Sustainable growth requires emotional fuel.
Or we will just be "who cares-ing" the year away.

(I speak from experience on this. Real talk.)

---

These 5 filters help our clients and us architect a banger of a year in 2026:

Clear goals
→ fewer priorities
→ controllable metrics
→ visible progress
→ positive energy

📌 Which one hits for you, any to add?

Happy New Year, Friends. Game on!

I believe in the power of LinkedIn. And the power of personal brand for finance peeps. If you do too, you need to meet this gal. 

If you are a client of Havener, or you work here, or you're a London friend who attended our LinkedIn for Fin breakfast event last year, then you already know Anna Robinson and you also know... she is a force 

Few fun facts to go with this flowers post (plus a give for you): 

--Anna and I met 25 years ago on the soccer field in San Diego. We've been bests ever since. ⚽

-- Before Anna joined Havener, she was a project manager at a software engineering firm, and a lead stylist at StitchFix. She also has a psych degree. So she can crush a to-do list while analyzing you and your wardrobe simul. (Trust me when I say this is an invaluable combination. 🤣)

-- Anna built my personal brand from scratch. She was a better me than me. Especially because she was brave when I couldn't be. I wouldn't have trusted anyone else. I am forever grateful. 

And now the give for you:

-- Anna and one of my other faves Mary Mack hosted a webinar in December on LinkedIn for Fund Managers that had over 250 attendees. 

-- It's now available on demand for you for no exchange of dollar bills. 

(We live our core value of GoGiver at Havener)

So if you are like me and have a differentiated point of view, and you believe LinkedIn is powerful, and you're intimidated even a little bit - grab this masterclass. 

https://lnkd.in/eg4MQeys

Put your trust in Anna. 

She won't let you down... on the soccer field, on social platforms, or in life. 

Flowers and so much love to you Anna
🙌💐♥️

👉 Who wants more of this? 

2026 is your year. Step out of the shadows my friends and lean in to LinkedIn

It took two major market meltdowns for me to finally realize, Wall-Street and Academia are, quite simply, wrong.

I joined this industry in February of 1999. Thirteen months later, the Dot Com bubble burst.

In the middle of that crisis, the leaders of the firm which I was then affiliated, assured me, “Don’t worry. This is a once in a career crisis. It’s good to get it behind you in the beginning.”

That made sense to me. We survived and I soldiered on.

Then came the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008.

“Don’t worry.” I was told, “This is a once in a career crisis.”

Wait, didn’t you guys say that already?

After this second stock market crisis, the proverbial scales fell from my eyes. I became convinced that financial planning and portfolio management are two distinctly different skill sets. I had one, but not the other.

This is the backstory of how Hicks & Associates Wealth Management has come to be much more of a boutique asset management firm than your run-of-the-mill financial advisory shop.

Simply put, we specialize in managing the wealth that you’ve spent decades building. 

Who we serve:
→ We serve individuals and families that do not want to see their wealth take the stairs on the way up, and the elevator back down.
→ We serve those who believe a defensive strategy is just as important - sometimes even more important - than an offensive strategy.
→ We serve those who want truly professional, truly active portfolio management.

If you'd like to chat, send me a DM.

Theodore Hicks

"It's okay to be wrong.
It's NOT okay to stay wrong."


That was my favorite blurb.
That was from David Keller, CMT.

I can't say it was a "take-away",
or a "golden nugget" ...

Mainly because it's our philosophy too.

But, I'll likely adopt that phrase.
It's very succinct and communicates clearly.

[Hope Dave doesn't have it trademarked.]

Ultimately, we don't make predictions.
We follow price and trend.

But ... 
and this is key:
We know we will make mistakes.

We just want those mistakes to be small.

This is something I discuss in my book.
There's a section in my book called:
Portfolio Math.

Keep your loses small.
Survive another day.

Let your winners run 
+ 
Compound those winners.

That math works.

All that said,
I was honored this week.

Tyler Wood, CMT asked me to speak ...
to the CMT Association Mid-Winter Retreat?

I basically told him "no".
This is one smart crowd!
Not sure I have anything to teach this group.

So, Tyler said, 
"You can talk about your book."

Ultimately, we agreed to a panel discussion ...
that'd be appropriate.

Vincent Randazzo, CMT would moderate.
Jeff T. Zipper, CFA, CMT, CFP® and I would discuss:

"How do you use technical analysis to communicate?"

This is a key tenant of my book:
My book is written to help the average American.

I tried really hard.
I wanted to take the complex & the confusing ...

And make it simple.
Make it easy to understand.

So far, I'm really encouraged.
I'm really humbled.

It seems I was able to balance that well.
Financial geeks [like me] enjoy the book.

But, what's really cool:
the average American reader,
the one who would NEVER read a finance book:

Those readers have also told me:
they too REALLY enjoyed it.

[And there's always this look of amazement when they say this. Like, "I can't believe I ACTUALLY enjoyed a finance book." It's actually kinda funny to watch them tell me this.]

Thanks for the invite Tyler.
Thanks for the warm reception CMT gang.


❓ Do you travel well? I do not sleep well in hotels. So I'm hoping to catch up on some sleep this weekend.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Get the 1st chapter free at: 
TheodoreHicks.com

I also manage wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.

Send me a DM to chat.

My book link

PS I cannot comprehend how ANYONE can study the founding of our nation, the Revolutionary War, etc. and 𝙣𝙤𝙩 see the Divine hand of God. 

There are so many instances like this:
- Prevailing winds failing to allow the British Armada (which was immense) from encircling our troops in Brooklyn. 
- Fog descending at just the right time to conceal Washington's retreat

Go back to the French & Indian War, and you'd learn that Washington had multiple bullet punctures in his jacket ... but none ever struck him. 

Devine protection, in my view ... as well as the Native American leaders who were specifically directing their men to fire on Washington!

The list like this is long! 

May God bless this nation, has He clearly has since our founding. May we live up to His blessings and be a bastion of freedom. 
May we reflect His glory. 

Happy Birthday America!


Author, Evidence Based Investing (Coming Soon) |
Chief Investment Officer at Hicks & Associates Wealth Management

My name is not Maverick, but I am a bit of a maverick. 

After graduating from NC State University in December 1998, I started my financial planning practice - what has become Hicks & Associates Wealth Management. 

Joining the industry in February 1999, I saw the last year of the great bull run up close.

I then saw the dot com crisis up close too. 

Going through that crisis, the leaders of the firm which I was then affiliated, assured me, “Don’t worry. This is a once in a career crisis. It’s good to get it behind you in the beginning.”

We survived and I soldiered on.

Then came the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008.

“Don’t worry.” I was told, “This is a once in a career crisis.”

Wait, didn’t you guys say that already?

After this second stock market crisis, the proverbial scales fell from my eyes. I became convinced that financial planning and portfolio management are two distinctly different skill sets. I had one, but not the other.

This is the backstory of how Hicks & Associates Wealth Management has come to specialize in managing the wealth that you’ve spent decades building. 

Who we serve:
→ We serve individuals and families that do not want to see their wealth take the stairs on the way up, and the elevator back down.
→ We serve those who believe a defensive strategy is just as important - sometimes even more important - than an offensive strategy.
→ We serve those who want truly professional, truly active portfolio management.

If you'd like to chat, send me a DM.

Teaching Investors to See the Market More Clearly | President, Sierra Alpha Research | Host, Market Misbehavior Podcast

Financial Services Executive

CMT Association

Helping Advisors Manage Risk & Compound Better | Former Chief Market Strategist @ Lowry Research

SVP | Sr. Portfolio Manager | Managing Director | Published Author | Financial Industry Leader | Fifth Third Private Bank | Board of Directors & Secretary/Treasurer- Palm Beach County Sports Commission.

Author, Evidence-Based Investing | Managing Wealth for the C-Suite

God wired this girl to perform.
That's all Him and it's glorious.


For Valentine's Day ...
You wanna take your honey out,
So, take 'em out to the Spiritual Twist show.

Caroline will be graduating this May.
So this might be her last show.

She has been in ~13 shows with STP.
She has absolutely grown as a performer.

She has also learned:
This is God's calling on her life.

Just take a look at these photos,
especially the big group photo.

You can just see sheer joy emanating from her.
I believe she will do big things.

So, you might want to check her out now.

Felicia, Teddy & I will be there for every show.
So, please say "hi" if you come out.

Tickets are on sale now.
Wednesday, February 11th
Thursday, February 12th
Friday, February 13th
Saturday, February 14th 

https://lnkd.in/esWKmKc7

I hope to see you there.


❓ Did you grow up doing drama?
~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Theodore Hicks, CFP, CKA, CMT

I miss my BMW 550.
It was built for drivers who love to drive.


There's one particular spot I loved.
Durham Freeway, heading south.
Merge onto I-40 West ...

Banked, long entry ramp.
Man I loved that curve.

If no one was in front of me,
and no black & whites behind me ...

I would push that car.
Then as I merged onto I-40
I'd have to slow aggressively.

But ONLY if the conditions were right.
I loved to drive that car.

But I'm not stupid.
And I don't want a ticket.

So, measured risk.
And that spot was a favorite.

And, I'm willing to bet:
You make similar decisions.

You may not push like that.
But I'll bet you alter your driving

Depending on the conditions.
If it's raining heavy ...
If there's snow ...

So, if we alter our driving,
based on the conditions ...

Why wouldn't we do it in our portfolio?

This clip is a little longer.
It clocks in just under 2 minutes.

But there's so many good nuggets in here.
And after yesterday ...

Good things to remember.

If you're getting close to retirement ...
if you're not sure you've got a strategy ...

Just send me a DM: "Let's talk"


❓Wanna guess how many speeding tickets I got in that car?

~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

"This is a once-in-a-career crisis, Ted."
But I heard that about two different crises!


My dad was a historian.
As for me, I kinda hated history.

Especially in High School.
Truth is, I had bad teachers.
Today, I find history fascinating.

But I didn't always feel that way.

The fact is it took a 2nd market crisis,
and a second use of that cliche,

"This is a once-in-a-career-crisis, Ted."

YOU CAN'T SAY THAT MORE THAN ONCE.

The reality is that:
- I was doing everything right.
- I was doing all they told me to do.

BUT IT DIDN'T WORK.

So, I started studying.
I started searching myself.

And what did I find?

What is so often taught in this business
➡️ is flat out wrong.
➡️ it fails you right when you need it.

That's why I do what I do.
That why I do it the way I do it.

This is a short clip from a podcast.
David Keller, CMT hosts it.

The Market Misbehavior podcast.
The link to the full episode is in the comment section.

Dave and I had a great chat.
Hope you enjoy it.

As an aside,
if you're getting close to retirement,
if you know you need to question your approach,

Just send me a DM, "Let's chat".
Happy to see if we can be of service.


❓ What's your favorite period of history?

~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

The tradition continues. 
Cinch World’s Toughest Rodeo


Savannah Grace Ellenberg and I haven’t missed a rodeo in ~15 years or so. 

Took her to her first rodeo when she was maybe 7.

Can’t remember exactly. 
But we haven’t missed a year. 

Back in 2021, we did a 5-week RV Trip across the country. 

One of my anchor stops,
I definitely wanted to see
“The Grand-daddy of em all”

Cheyenne Frontier Days

The statue pictured is from outside the Cheyenne arena. 

That’s Chris LeDoux. 
Legend.

May he RIP. 

The Cheyenne rodeo …
That was an awesome series! 


We got to see Jose Victor Leme he totally dominated …

Won Last Cowboy Standing. 
Every one of his rides …

A qualified 8 second ride!
Dude couldn’t get bucked.  

But if you know rodeo,
And you know Jose …

You know he dominated.
Dude is legend.  

Last night, 3 generations. 
Rodeo yall. 

Great night.


❓ What are you doing this weekend?

No alternative text description for this image

Just John Wayne & lots of OJ.


I'm a little under the weather. 
Seems to be a minor cold.

But I don't wanna infect anyone at the office.
So I rescheduled face-to-face meetings.
And quarantined myself.

When I'm not feeling well,
I'm drinking lots of OJ 
lots of Vitamin C.

And hanging out with John Wayne.
Watched In Harm's Way and
Hatari

Two I had never seen before.

Hopefully, I'll be a bit closer to full strength later today.

For now, just know:
➡️ Be wise with your wealth.
➡️ Follow your investment rules. 
➡️ Always (ALWAYS!) manage your risk.


❓ What's your favorite John Wayne movie.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Get the 1st chapter free at: 
TheodoreHicks.com

I also manage wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.

Send me a DM to chat. ... Just might not respond 'til Monday.

Hard to believe, this may be the last show.
But I know Caroline will be amazing.


Have you ever read The Great Gatsby?
Caroline will be Daisy in the show.

Spiritual Twist Productions is in Garner, NC.
They put a "spiritual twist" on all their shows.

Since I had never read The Great Gatsby,
I listened to it recently on Audible.

I completely, 100% hated it.
Why is that horrible plot a classic?

But I have a vague idea of the spiritual twist,
So, I'm quite confident that the show will be great.

If you are local,
and you need a date for Valentine's week,

Might I suggest STP's The Great Gatsby?
The show will be Feb 11, 12, 13 & 14. 

This might be Caroline's last ...
at least here locally.

I believe the Lord has special plans for her.
I don't believe this will be her last show.

Just might be the last one at STP.
Tickets go on sale January 26th.

https://lnkd.in/esWKmKc7


How does this relate to managing wealth?
Well, The Great Gatsby ... not a client I'd want.

We like serving people we enjoy.
His parties may have been legend.
But I certainly don't think I'd like him.

What about you?

It appears that the tides might be changing ...
after five long years, it's about time.


There's a cliche in this business ...
actually, that's not true.

There's a LOT of cliches in this business.
But that's besides the point.

One of the cliches is
"A rising tide lifts all boats."

But what is the rising tide?

If you watched our most recent YouTube,
you know the S&P 500 was up ~16% last yr.

But you also know,
the average stock was NOT.

Generally speaking, 
if small companies are outperforming ...

THAT is the rising tide.

This chart I'm showing here, 
it's pretty simple:

Take one security
Divide it by another.

The chart then POINTS out an answer.
It points to the stronger of the two.

So this is Small Company stocks (IWM),
divided by Large Company stocks (SPY).

You can see that the chart was pointing south.
It was pointing to the denominator, SPY.

In English:
for the last 5 years, large caps have out-performed.

That is NOT a robust bull market.

But see that circle in the bottom right?

That's a trendline break.
It's still tentative at the moment.

But it's a very welcome sign.
Means we might have a leadership change.

Small companies may be taking the lead.
And that's the tide we want.

It technically won't lift all boats.
But it'd sure lift more than the Mag 7.

I'm heading to Tampa this morning.
The CMT Association asked me to be on a panel.

Jeff T. Zipper, CFA, CMT, CFP® and I will be chatting ...
Vincent Randazzo, CMT will be moderating.

I'm sure I'll bring up my book.
Turns out Jeff Zipper wrote one too ... 
'Cuz what I'll be reading on the plane ride south.


❓ I tried to tie in a lesson from 1776 or the George Washington biography I'm now thoroughly enjoying. But couldn't think of the analogy. Oh well. 

~~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Well, it's about time!


If you watched my recent YouTube,
the January Market & Economic Update,

You likely recall that the average stock,
last year UNDER-PERFORMED
the average Money Market
at least in 2025.

In order for the bull market to be robust,
we needed to see this ...

And it finally happened!

Last week, we had the breakout.
You can read the full article below.

It's also at our website.


❓ What did you do this past weekend?


~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.

Want a second opinion, let's chat.
Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

"Diversification fails you,
right when you need it the most."

This is another clip from my time with David Keller, CMT last week on his Market Misbehavior podcast.

You may not know this:
A LOT of the financial industry ...

It's based on a theory from the 1950s.
That theory was from a PhD dissertation.
That dissertation was from Harry Markowitz.

So, you may not know his name.
But his theory has shaped the financial world.

➡️ And his theory is dead wrong.

The problem:
➡️ Most financial advisors have never read Markowitz
➡️ So they don't know how wrong his assumptions were
➡️ They don't see how flawed his conslusions are either.

But they operate based on the theory anyway.


❓ What authority has shaped your industry?

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Two penalty kicks yesterday. 
Clean sheet on Saturday.  


One more game this a.m.  
Man it’s cold. 

Think I’ll be 29 at kickoff. 
That’s cold. 

Coach has been rotating keepers. 
I reckon that’s the idea
That’s a Showcase

At least I think. 
It’s not a tournament. 

The team didn’t qualify for it. 
So they go to a Showcase. 

Reckon it’s an opportunity
Opportunity to look for improvement 

Teddy started the 1st game. 
Coach subbed him 10 minutes into the 2nd half. 

Teddy had a clean sheet. 

Game 2
Teddy played the 2nd half. 

We were down 2-1 at the half. 
Apparently we fouled twice,
In the box. 

So Teddy had to face two PKs. 

First one - was just well placed. 
Nothing he coulda done. 

Second one - he had a great dive. 
Got a hand on it. 

But it went in. 
Still a great dive. 

They scored one more late. 
That one was a scrum. 

Overall he’s played great. 
Despite sub-freezing temps. 

After the game yesterday,
We went to see the fishies. 



❓Ever been to the Georgia Aquarium?

~~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.

I also lead a team that manages money for individuals and families. 
We are vigilant investors so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

The Navy SEALs are not always aggressive men.


Unfortunately, you may have been brainwashed.
But you are not alone.

The reality:
My industry has brainwashed a lot of folks.

"I'm getting close to retirement.
So, I need to be more conservative."

Says who?

Unfortunately, the vast majority.
Well the vast majority are not always right.

I walk you through this in my book.
If you haven't gotten a copy,
there's a $4 version.

The hardcover book is very nice, IMO.
But you are free to get the $4 Kindle version.

I'm just pleased that so many folks are reading it.
AND actually enjoying the book!

Anyway, here's the point:

Question conventional wisdom.
Question the talking points.
Questions everything.

When someone says:
"You should be more conservative."

That is code language.

It usually means, 
"You should own more bonds."

Hogwash.

The problem:
Too many operate with false assumptions.

"You should own more bonds."
That dates back to Harry Markowitz.

Yes, he won a Nobel prize for a PhD dissertation.
It was indeed a ground breaking paper.

BUT IT WAS WRONG.

You do not manage your risk with bonds.
You manage risk by how you manage your wealth.

The reality:
Take risks when it makes sense to take risks.
Decrease risk when the odds are not in your favor.

In the later scenario:
You might even want to AVOID taking risks.

My hat is off to the US Special Forces.
The Navy SEALs.
The Army Green Berets.
The Night Stalkers of SOAR.
Marine Corps Expeditionary Force.

The list is longer than you think.
I know. I am not listing them all.
They are all bad @$$es in my opinion.

But here's the reality:

The Special Forces are NOT always on attack.
They will strike when it's time to strike.
Yes, they take risks.

And I'm one grateful Patriot that they do.
But they take CALCULATED risks.

They don't take blind risks.
And they manage the op actively.

I'm sure they are always mitigating.
They are always trying to mitigate risk.

They want to also accomplish the mission.
But they also want to return home.

Same is true for you.
You want to retire soon.
You want to maintain your lifestyle.

So, don't blindly take risks.

Also, don't increase exposure to bonds ...
And think you are decreasing risk.

Manage risk actively.
If you don't know how:
hire someone who does.

And if they don't talk about managing risk actively,
it's 'cuz they aren't.


❓ Did you know I called the USMC recruiting station when I was in college? I wanted to fly the AV-8. 

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

The S&P 500 was up ~16% in 2025.
But what about the average stock?


If we use the Value-Line Geometric Average,
that's a pretty decent proxy,
for the average stock ...

The Value-Line Geometric Average, 
was NOT up 16% last year.

One glance at the 200-day moving average ...
that is a pretty flat trendline!

What does this tell us?
The average stock, in 2025
UNDER-PERFORMED a decent Money Market.

But, what does this mean for 2026?

Well, we do not make predictions,
but that flat trend does offer some good news.

If you want to watch the full video,
you can find it on our YouTube channel.

If you check it out, 
be sure to subscribe.

I will post at least one video per month.


❓ You got any predictions about 2026?

~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

You need to have a SERIOUS talk with your grocer.
Your deficit with them is HUGE.


Yesterday, I was asked to speak to a group.
The event isn't 'til mid-February.

But as I quickly contemplated the title,
of a talk I'll give a month from now,
I took a look at the latest YouTube.

So, I rewatched my January YouTube 
It was a Market & Economic Update.

I reviewed the latest GDP stat.
In my view, the GDP math is bad math.

In short ...
Net Exports is part of the calculation.

That's idiotic in my view.
Take a look at the short clip.

You can check out the full video if you'd like.
It's on our YouTube channel.

All the cool kids have already subscribed.
But we'll let you in too. 


❓ You working on MLK day? Looks like I'll be cheering on T3 in a soccer tourney. He was asked to step in & mind the nets for another team.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families.
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Every year, we get the same question: 
"Will we see a recession?"


Generally speaking, we don't issue predictions.
Wall Street is full of Nostradamuses
[Or is it Nostradamasi?]

But that doesn't stop clients from asking:
"Will we see a recession this year?"

While we follow price action,
we let the stock & bond market be our guide.

Remember, trading costs are $0.
So, we believe in being truly active.

In our view, there's just no reason not to be.
So, one of the cliches that we cling to:

"We hold strong opinions, weakly held."

In other words,
we are quite comfortable changing our minds.

When you issue a prediction,
you can get anchored to that prediction.

Your pride is at stake.

We check our pride at the door.
We follow price.

And, most importantly,
we follow our investment management process.

Said differently,
we follow our rules.

That said, I still look at economic data.

To some extent,
I look because I'm curious.
I look b/c it creates a platform for engagement.

I've been invited to give economic presentations.
I enjoy giving my economic views.

But they are not predictions.
It's just how I see the data ... today.

If the data changes, 
or you show me another way to view it,
I may change my mind - my pride isn't at stake.

So, for now,
these two points are the key.

These two points are the reason why:
I do not think we'll see a recession in the near term.

Feel free to change my mind.
I value a good, respectful debate.


How do you see the data?
PS Is it Nostradamuses or Nostradamusi?


~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Ain't gonna lie, I'm not a fan of that blue. 
But it was kinda cool to park next to this bird.


This was from a couple of years ago.
Actually, it was likely from 2015.

If you didn't know,
I got my Private Pilot license in 2014.

I love aviation.
But, if you've been to my office ...

Then you probably picked up on that.
Aviation art in every room.

But I also love history.
So, it's historical aviation military art.

Anyway, back in 2014 or 2015,
I flew to Charlotte to meet with a client.

I taxied and parked the plane.
No big deal.

Went in to the FBO conference room.
Fired up my laptop.

The clients walked in a few minutes later.
"Did you see that airplane?"

Honestly, I missed it.
Was focusing on being a pilot.

➡️ Safety first.

When you learn to fly, 
instructors INTENTIONALLY distract you.

At least they try.

As we're coming in to land,
"Hey look at that ..."

Don't think I ever fell for it.
I was focused on flying the plane.

But they are trying to distract you.
They're trying to teach you:

➡️ Stay focused.

And there's the lesson.
Stay focused:

Focus on YOUR discipline.
Focus on YOUR rules.

Don't get distracted by someone else.
Don't get distracted by another's process.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't learn from others.
Just don't let them take you off your game.

You can adapt your game,
you can adapt your rules,

But you must have rules.
You must have a process.

Or, to return to the analogy:
You should have a checklist.

That's how you manage wealth.
Follow your investment management process.

And don't get distracted.
Stay focused.
Disciplined.


❓ Assuming you figured out who's plane this is, how long did it take you to figure it out.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Wanna guess what I'm doing this weekend?


T3 signed up for a goalkeeping winter clinic.
One of the coaches pulled him aside.

This Coach leads an NPL team.
That's National Premier League.

Sounds fancy.

It's just one level up.
Teddy is on a "Classic" team.

Regardless, Coach said he liked what he saw.
Asked Teddy to guest play for him.

So T3 is playing in a "Showcase".
I'll be on the sidelines.

I'll also be hoping someone brings a mobile heater.

H/T to Lisa Klein for showing me how to create a "Plushie" using ChatGPT. The Plushie I had it create of Caroline was cute. But then I saw you can ask it to create a bobble head. 

That's an hour of my life I'll never get back.
But all my kids love the bobble heads I created of them.


❓ Is it okay to bring a portable heater to a soccer game?

~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Do you feel a divergence in the force?
[Yeah, I know. Yoda said "disturbance", not "divergence".]


For months,
or has it been years?

We've been talking about a divergence.
This divergence was a warning.

It was never a signal.
It was only just a warning.

But these divergence warnings are legit.
Ever see a sign that read:

"Speed is Monitored by Radar"

You don't stop driving.
But you might start paying more attention.

Well, for a long time, 
The Magnificent 7 has lead.

The S&P 500 was positive in 2025.
But the average stock did NOT participate.

Most stocks under-performed a money market.
That's changing.

This chart shows four ETFs.
It shows their YTD performance (thru 1/14).

From the bottom up ...

MAGS
A Magnificent 7 ETF is NEGATIVE 0.40%.

SPY
The Cap-Weighted S&P 500 ETF is +1.29%

VO
A Mid-Cap ETF is +2.95%
[mid-cap is medium sized companies]

RSP
The Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF is +3.47%

IWM
The Russell 2000 ETF is +6.74%
[this is small companies]

If you haven't watched my January Market Update,
1st of all - why?!
(just kidding)

Seriously - go watch it on YouTube.
You'll see / hear what I said.

We cannot be in a healthy robust bull market ...
IF THE AVERAGE STOCK IS NOT PARTICIPATING.

Yes, most stocks recovered last year.
We had the Tariff Tantrum.
But most recovered.

But they did NOT move into new high ground.

You cannot have a bull market if stocks are not moving into new high ground.

So, what can we conclude from this chart?

IWM, RSP, VO
All tell us the same thing ...

The average stock is now participating.

The fact that the MAGS is negative ...
Money is rotating away from the big dogs.

That's healthy.
If the bull market is really healthy ...

Small companies typically lead.
So far, it appears they've taken that lead.

What does this mean?
What should you do?

Well, if you don't know, feel free to ask.
Just send me a DM with "Small Caps Lead?"
And we'll set up a time to chat.


❓ Are we getting snow this weekend?


~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

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