Brick

A Paid Ad & Creative agency helping DTC brands scale using Paid Ads, Creative & CRO behind $400m in revenue for your favourite DTC brands.

We're data nerds who live and breathe e-commerce growth, and our only goal is to help you grow in the most efficient and robust way possible.

Some of our brand partners include:

Patch Plants, Bougie Bakes, SHITI Coolers, Brooklyn Brew Shop, Moto 360, Kodak Smart Home, Paddywax Candles, PetFusion and many other excellent brands.

We typically work with e-commerce businesses who want:

✔ A partner who takes a holistic approach to growth marketing and does all the heavy lifting so you don't have to
✔ To achieve sustainable growth whilst building unshakeable foundations that last
✔ A team of experts that support you through thick & thin and tell you exactly how it is. No sugar-coated BS or pulling the wool over your eyes

To see if your business is eligible, schedule a quick call using the link below:

https://bricksocial.typeform.com/to/xKBNuhvf

Some things we’re proud of:

→ $400,000,000+ profitable ad revenue generated for our partners
→ Dozens of 5⭐️ reviews from our partners on Clutch.co
→ Featured in industry publications talking about e-commerce growth 
→ Client retention 1.8+ years

If you want to learn more about how we do this, you can either:

→ GO HERE: https://www.growwithbrick.com/

→ EMAIL HERE: toby@bricksocial.co.uk

→ APPLY HERE: https://bricksocial.typeform.com/to/xKBNuhvf

Co-Founder @ Brick | Meta & Google Ads For Ecommerce Brands

Apple

Connecting businesses and entrepreneurs with the tools they need to thrive. Introducing Apple solutions, technology, and services and strategically deploying Apple equipment across a range of businesses. Engaging with businesses to build successful, long lasting relationships.

Sales & Marketing

Mimecast

Working closely with marketing, channel and different sales teams to develop new business. The role also entailed working at events and being involved in partner sales environments, speaking directly with end customers and articulating the benefits of the Mimecast platform.

Marketing Development Specialist

Managing Partner @ Brick | Ads & Creative for 100+ DTC brands - $300m+ in sales | I write content about paid ads, performance creative & e-commerce

We scale 7 to 9-figure DTC brands using a creative-first, full-funnel approach that blends paid ads, landing pages, and performance-driven creative.

Brick isn’t a bloated agency juggling 50 clients. 

We’re a boutique team of senior strategists, creatives, and media buyers working closely with a small group of brands we genuinely believe in.

Everything we do is grounded in research, strategy, and execution. No juniors, no handoffs, no fluff.

We’ve driven over $400M in trackable revenue for some of the fastest-growing DTC brands. Our work has been featured in Entrepreneur, Social Media Examiner, and other leading publications. More importantly, 92% of the brands we work with hit all-time revenue highs in under 90 days.

If you're spending on ads but not seeing consistent growth, we can help. 

We focus on fixing the bottlenecks that are holding your brand back—whether it's creative fatigue, poor landing page performance, or inefficient account structure.

Message me “GROWTH” or check the link in my featured section to see how we work.

Toby W.

My creative team told me NOT to share this…

But here we are.

I just dropped our complete AI-powered creative multiplication system that we use to turn ONE winning ad into 20+ platform-specific variations.

This is the exact 6-step framework we use with our 8-figure clients - complete with every prompt, tool, and workflow we use internally at Brick.

Most brands are stuck in the "creative treadmill"... constantly producing new ads from scratch while their best performers collect dust.

This system changes that. Forever.

For the next 48 hours, it's yours.

Like this post + Comment "AI" and I'll send it over.

(We MUST be connected)

Toby Waller

Boutique growth team for ambitious eCom brands | Paid Ads & Creative | $450M+ revenue driven for brands like Leica, Moto, Drake, Shiti Coolers & 200+ more.

Most brands burn money on promo campaigns because they:

🚫 Launch ads too late
🚫 Use the wrong creative strategy
🚫 Scale budgets inefficiently

This Meta Ads Playbook fixes all of that

So you can run promos that actually drive revenue, not just clicks.

Drop ‘PLAYBOOK’ and I’ll DM it over.

Over 150 Meta accounts audited this year. 

The same 4 structural problems in 90% of them 👇🏼

These aren't tactical errors. 

They're strategic blindspots that cap your spend capacity and waste budget on inefficiency.

Let's dive in 👇🏼

1. You're micro-managing the algorithm:

20 interest stacks. Placement exclusions. 1% lookalikes segmented by behavior.

You think you're optimizing. You're strangling learning.

Meta's algorithm finds cheap conversions better than your targeting guesses. 

But it needs volume and breadth to learn.

What works: Broad targeting + all placements as default. Only add constraints when there's a creative or compliance reason - not because you "feel" an audience is better.

2. Testing and scaling live in the same campaign

When new ads compete with proven winners for budget:

Tests get buried under $200 spend and killed too early

Scaling budget bleeds into unproven creative

You can't tell what's working

The fix: Separate testing from scaling. Different campaigns, different goals.

Testing campaign: Small budgets, high rotation, disposable 
Scaling campaign: Proven winners only, stable budget allocation

Don't mix exploration with exploitation.

3. You don't know who you're actually reaching

If existing customers, engaged visitors, and cold traffic all live in the same audience, you'll never know:

How much budget hits true prospects vs repeat buyers

Whether your ROAS is real or inflated by people who were buying anyway

The fix: Define audience segments clearly:

Existing = past purchasers
Engaged = site visitors, engagers
New = everyone else

4. Your creative is format-locked

All video or all static accounts leave Meta blind.

Different placements respond to different formats. If you're only testing one, you're capping reach and driving up CPMs.

Repurpose your best performers across formats. That winning video hook? Test it as a static. Your top static? Turn it into a 15-second video.

Bottom line:
Scaling Meta in 2025 isn't about hacks or secret tactics.

It's about:
> Letting the algorithm learn (stop micromanaging)
> Clear campaign architecture (testing vs scaling)
> Defined audience strategy (know who you're reaching)
> Creative diversity (format mix, not format monopoly)

Most accounts are capped by structure, not by spend capacity.

If you want a full audit of your Meta account, campaign structure, audience strategy, creative portfolio, and scaling roadmap...

reply with AUDIT and I'll send over details.

Why do some brands scale past 7-figure months while others flatline at 6? 
Similar product. Same starting point.
✅ Different creative strategy.

We’ve helped 200+ 7 and 8-figure brands smash through plateaus using our data-first creative strategy.

And for the first time, I’m giving you the process we use to analyse ad creative that has been responsible for over $400m in revenue.

This free guide breaks down:

✅ How to create ads that actually resonate with your target audience

✅ The key metrics that drive creative decisions (and how to track them)

✅ How to use data to consistently improve and scale your ad creative

✅ The step-by-step strategy that has helped e-commerce brands triple their revenue

Want a copy? 

👉 Connect with me 
👉 Like this post 
👉 Comment "CREATIVE" and I’ll DM it to you

I've seen brands with 100+ ads live struggle to break $500K monthly.

And brands with 50 ads scale past $5M.

The difference? 

One is making more ads. The other is testing more angles.

Going into 2026, Creative strategy isn't about volume. 

It's about angular diversity.

Here's what that means:

Most brands think they need "more creative." So they brief their team: 
"Make 10 new ads this month."

What they get back: 10 variations of the same concept. Different hooks, different B-roll, maybe different talent. But fundamentally the same psychological approach.

That's not 10 ads. That's one angle with 10 executions.

An angle is the core strategic premise. The "why should I care" that everything else hangs on.

"This product solves [specific pain point]" = one angle 

"This product delivers [aspirational outcome]" = different angle 

"This product works differently than [expected solution]" = different angle 

"You're already doing [behavior], this makes it better" = different angle 

"Everyone else is wrong about [belief]" = different angle

Each angle appeals to different psychology, performs in different audiences, and fatigues independently.

What I see working at scale:

The brands spending $500K+ monthly have 8-12 distinct angles in rotation simultaneously. 

Each angle might have 2-3 executions, but the strategic diversity is in the angles, not the ads.

They're not asking "Can we make more content?" 

They're asking "What angles haven't we tested?"

Pain point vs aspiration. Social proof vs founder story. Education vs entertainment. Problem-unaware vs solution-aware.

When one angle fatigues, the others keep performing because they're reaching fundamentally different audience psychology.

The brands stuck at $200K are making their 47th iteration of their winning ad.

The brands at $3M are testing their 9th completely different strategic approach.

Your creative production bottleneck isn't volume. It's your angle diversity.

You don't need 50 ads a month. You need 5 genuinely different angles, each executed 2-3 ways.

Stop counting ads. Start counting angles.

Everyone’s chasing UGC… 

But static ads still print the money.

The best-performing ads right now don’t move.

They’re clean, effective static ads - built on clarity, contrast, and credibility.

While everyone’s chasing UGC and “motion-first” creative, these brands are scaling with simplicity.

Here are 6 static ads worth studying and why they convert 👇

1️⃣ DEUX Donut Holes

🧠 Principle: Newness + appetite

“3x sold out. Now in chocolate.”

Scarcity + novelty + irresistible close-up.

💡 Takeaway: Use visual appetite cues before your copy does the work.

2️⃣ Hush

🧠 Principle: Product confidence

“Our coldest pillow yet.” Short. Direct. Calm.

No hype, just a confident product-led promise.

💡 Takeaway: Premium brands don’t need noise - they need authority.

3️⃣ Conzuri

🧠 Principle: Transformation without shame

“+2.4 inch height boost.”

Empowering, measurable, human. Handwritten notes make it feel honest.

💡 Takeaway: Sell confidence, not correction.

4️⃣ Misfits

🧠 Principle: Borrowed belief

“The best vegan protein bars in thirty years of searching.”

The review is the headline. Nothing sells like a real human endorsement.

💡 Takeaway: Turn your best testimonial into your next hook.

5️⃣ Bamboo Ave

🧠 Principle: Scarcity + simplicity

“They’re back. But not for long.”

Conversational urgency > corporate FOMO.

💡 Takeaway: Short scarcity lines feel more trustworthy than countdown timers.

6️⃣ Grüns

🧠 Principle: Contrast + humor

Side-by-side storytelling (pain vs relief) with raw, relatable emotion.

You understand the transformation in one glance.

💡 Takeaway: Show emotional before/after moments - not just product benefits.

Why static ads still work:

✅ They communicate one big promise in 3 seconds
✅ They show proof visually, not verbally
✅ They build belief, not just attention

Clarity > clever.
Message > motion.
Emotion > production.

LinkedIn

li_at

JSESSIONID

Talks about #cro, #ecommerce, #googleads, #copywriting, and #facebookadvertising

Static Ads

Ivy Villezas

This brand joined us 6 months ago.

Today? They just broke $4M/month 🤯

Here's the exact playbook we used 👇

In May 2025, this established apparel brand came to us with a problem.

Strong product. Loyal community. But their growth had stagnated.

They knew there was untapped potential... their existing team just didn't know how to break through.

6 months later, we're scaling profitably with momentum.

📈 The Results: 

→ Monthly revenue: $4.3M and continuing to grow
→ +85% month-over-month growth 
→ Blended ROAS: 4x+ 
→ AOV: +12% 
→ 2.5x increase in creative testing volume

🔍 Step 1: Deep Research First

Before touching the ad account:

Customer review and CS ticket mining to extract objections, pain points, and use cases

Post-purchase survey analysis

Competitor review scrapes

Meta & Google creative audits

PDP + heatmap analysis to ID CRO gaps

🚀 Step 2: Media Buying Structure

Meta: 
→ Minor ad account restructure 
→ Clear Test / Scale framework 
→ Tighter exclusions to manage prospecting frequency 
→ UTM tracking implementation 
→ Influencer whitelisting rollout

Google: 
→ Expanded PMax with new asset groups 
→ Generic Search campaign based on real queries 
→ Cleaned branded search campaigns 
→ Retargeting display focused on objections

YouTube: 
→ Targeted in-market, competitor & keyword-based intent audiences

🎨 Step 3: 

Creative Strategy 
→ Weekly creative testing cadence 
→ UGC, statics, testimonials, BTS & founder content 
→ Built avatars + mapped angles to awareness stages 
→ Fed winning data back into briefs weekly 
→ Thumbnail testing from top statics 
→ Unified messaging across channels

🏦 Step 4: 

LPs & Offers 
→ Tested % off vs $ off vs non-discounted bundles 
→ Introduced in-cart + post-purchase upsells 
→ Improved mobile & desktop speed 
→ Built avatar-specific landers vs generic PDPs

💡 Key Takeaways:

→ Scaling isn't just about spending more. It's about knowing what levers to pull and spending smarter. 

→ No creative iteration = creative system failure. Build feedback loops. 

→ Avatar-specific landers > generic PDPs 

→ Alignment between media buying, creative, retention and CRO is essential

Want similar results?

We'll build a free 70+ page audit that shows: 

→ What's causing your brand to stagnate 
→ Where your next $1M/month is hiding 
→ How to fix it across ads, creative & landing pages

👇 Drop "GROWTH" or DM me.

Brands don’t crash after BFCM because demand for their product dies.

They crash because they don’t plan for what comes after the weekend.

December has a rhythm that most teams completely miss

And that’s why their numbers fall off a cliff while others keep climbing.

I put together a quick carousel breaking down the real sequence we see inside accounts every year...

The dip, the mistakes, the pivots, and the plays that actually keep you profitable through December.

Carousel below 👇

BFCM

It’s never the sexy stuff that drives scale.

It’s the unsexy operational fixes that unlock the biggest efficiency gains.

Here are the unsexy optimisations driving the fastest scale for our brands right now 👇

1️⃣ Testing + scaling in the same campaign = chaos

When winners and tests fight for budget, you get:
 • False fatigue
 • Learning resets
 • No attribution clarity

Split them.
Testing = rotation + fast kills.
Scaling = stability + proven assets.
 
This single change unlocks more scale than most creative breakthroughs.

2️⃣ Authenticity > production value

Overproduced ads are losing to iPhone content daily.

Raw founder stories, lo-fi demos & native UGC consistently win.

And stop scripting creators to death - you’re paying for their authenticity.

Bonus: bold text overlays improve clarity AND help the algo understand your offer.

3️⃣ Your offer is limiting scale

Running the same offer for 6+ months? 

You're leaving money on the table.

 Top performers test:
 • BOGO
 • Bundles
 • Threshold incentives
 • Bonus value > discounts

 Small offer shifts often beat new creative entirely.

4️⃣ Operators win by watching the right metrics

Break-even ROAS should be non-negotiable.

Don’t let campaigns sit below it for 48 hours.

Look for timing patterns (best days/hours) and shift budgets accordingly.

And use placement breakdowns to decide which formats to make more of.

5️⃣ Scale comes from stacking small wins - not one magic tactic:

 +12% from better structure
 +15% from clearer hooks
 +10% from offer tests
 –18% wasted spend from exclusions

One optimisation is nothing.

Ten optimisations = compounding scale.

Bottom line:

The brands scaling into 2026 aren’t chasing quick wins - they’re tightening structure, simplifying creative, testing offers, and analysing performance daily.

Hitting $2M/month isn’t the hard part.
Breaking past it is.
And almost every brand fails for the exact same reason.

We recently took a brand from $2.1M → $3.3M/month (+57%), and it didn’t happen by “working harder” or “launching more ads.”

It happened because we removed the bottlenecks that were choking scale.
Here’s the breakdown:

1. Creative wasn’t the issue. Creative variety was.

They were launching hundreds of ads… all built around the same 2–3 concepts.

High output. Low intent. Zero range.

We installed a data-backed creative engine that forced variety:

 • Deep performance + competitor analysis
 • Weekly structured ideation
 • Full-spectrum creative testing (raw, polished, education-first, outcome-first, problem-agitate, lifestyle, all of it)

Winners stopped being luck. They became predictable.

2. Their account structure couldn’t support scale.

Testing + scaling mixed together. No clean learnings. No signal.

Frequency issues. Attribution chaos.

We rebuilt it around a simple flow:

Test → Graduate → Scale
Clean insights → faster decisions → consistent results.

3. Post-click was killing efficiency.

Great ads were sending everyone to the same PDP.

No angle alignment. No objection handling. No awareness matching.

We rebuilt landing pages around:

 • Specific personas
 • Specific pain points
 • Specific ad angles

Conversion rate lifted. CAC dropped. LTV improved.

The lesson:

What gets you to $2M/month won’t get you to $3M/month.

Scaling at this level isn’t about more spend or more ads.

It’s about systems that eliminate bottlenecks and compound small wins.

If you’re pushing harder without seeing movement, the issue usually isn’t effort.

It’s the system you’re pushing into.

Came across 3 eCom landing pages that I felt compelled to redesign:

→ Atlas

Added a navigation bar separator

The hero image blended in with the nav bar beforehand.

To me, it’s too connected. The elements need to be distinct.

So, we made them distinct.

Tidied up the upper-mid action of the site.

Moved their headline up.

Lightened the background to make the text pop.

Added a new line of copy to affirm Atlas’s mission:
To build incredible dog gear.

Added in benefit badges
“Handmade in Colorado”
“Buy it for life guarantee”

Can’t hurt & gives customers more reason to stay & click through.

New CTA button

Your site visitors won’t know what to do next without a CTA.

So we added in an on-brand button to keep visitors moving along.

Essential & goes beyond design.

It’s functionality.

→ anese

Cleaned up the navigation bar

The upper section of the site looked messy.

Too much going on.

So we cleaned up the top bar & made it look uniform.

Less buttons = less decision fatigue for customers.

Downscaled the hero image

Was too big before.

Took up too much space which took away from the site.

So we shrunk the image + added in their “8,000 reviews” social proof.

Revised the copy

We enlarged some of the previous copywriting.

We added in new text to tease anese’s come up story.

Much cleaner.

Added a highly visible CTA button + a “featured in” section.

The CTA button makes it easier to move the prospect towards buying.

The “featured in” section boosts anese’s status.

Both elements encourage sales & were missing entirely before.

→ Fast Growing Trees

Decluttered the navigation bar.

Too many buttons.

Too many options.

This confuses site visitors.

So we streamlined the bar to a general menu button, logo, and cart.

Added a reel showcasing multiple tree pictures

Visitors are on this page to shop for… trees.

So we added more pictures & upped the visuals.

Included more purchase options.

We made it clear that you can buy through Klarna with interest-free payments.

Or purchase 100% upfront.

No-nonsense when it comes to pricing & numbers.

Benefit badges

The purpose of these is to ease the reader & collect more sales.

They’re worries that customers have before buying.

So we tackle them upfront (shipping time, warranties etc).

Clear buyer’s journey

We introduced a size button.

We added a quantity option.

All tied together with an add to cart CTA.

Each element works in unison.

Landing Pages

November was absolutely insane.

Pretty much every brand we work with just hit lifetime record months.

Highest volume and efficiency they've ever achieved.

I'm watching my team execute at a level I didn't think was possible. The media buyers, the creative strategists, the account leads – everyone firing on all cylinders.

This is what happens when you get the right people rowing in the same direction 🔥

This apparel brand's best month ever was $3.2M.
Last 30 days? $6.5M.
Here's what changed in 8 months of working together.

When they came to us, they were stuck in the $2M-$3M range.

Decent business. But they'd hit a ceiling.

They had blinders on. 
US-only. 
Limited creative angles. 
Generic landing pages. 
No influencer partnerships. 
Same offer since launch.

They weren't doing anything wrong. They just weren't pulling enough levers.

Classic symptom: running a decent operation that's nowhere near optimized.

Here's what we fixed:

1. Launched whitelisted ads
They'd never run whitelisted content before. We partnered with creators in their niche and ran ads directly from their profiles immediately. 

The trust transfer was immediate. Lower CPAs, higher engagement, and access to audiences that were fatigued by the brand's own account.

2. Optimized their site (where 90% of traffic was going)

They were driving traffic to generic product pages with zero optimization for cold traffic.

We rebuilt the landing experience: faster load times, clearer value props, social proof above the fold, and offer-specific landing pages that matched ad messaging.

Site conversion rate jumped nicely.

3. Unlocked creative variety with our Creative Variety Matrix

They were leaning into 1-2 types of creative on repeat. 

Polished product shots and basic UGC.

We mapped their entire creative library and identified 12+ untested angles sitting in blind spots.

Within 60 days, we had founder content, problem-aware ads, comparison angles, and testimonial mashups all working simultaneously.

More variety = more scale.

4. Expanded into international markets

They were 100% US-focused while sitting on margins that could handle international shipping.

We tested Canada, UK, and Australia in prospecting campaigns.

Meta's inventory was cheaper in these markets. Same creative. Same offers. Different CPMs.

5. Authenticity beat production value

They were overproducing everything. Professional shoots. Scripted UGC. Polished brand content.

All of it getting crushed by raw iPhone footage.

We shifted to: authentic founder content, real customer testimonials, and benefit-first messaging with bold text overlays.

6. Tested offers like a media buying variable

They'd been running the same 20% off since launch.

We tested BOGO structures, threshold offers, and bundles that increased perceived value without destroying margins.

One bundle offer lifted AOV while keeping customers happier than a straight discount ever did.

This isn't an exhaustive list.... just some of the key levers we pulled over 8 months.

The results:
→ $6.1M in revenue last 30 days 
→ Daily revenue now consistently $200K+ 

This wasn't a creative breakthrough or a hack you don't have access to.

It was fixing the foundation and stacking optimizations month after month.

The unsexy stuff that actually compounds.

Our brands' spending $500K+ monthly don't refresh creatives. 

Here's what they do instead.

Everyone's obsessed with creative refresh schedules. 

"Rotate new ads every 2 weeks." "Refresh before fatigue hits." "Keep it fresh."

Wrong problem.

Here's what I see at scale:

The brands that scale don't refresh creatives. They maintain creative diversity from day one.

The difference matters more than most people realize.

Refresh thinking says: Run your winners until they fatigue, then replace them. 

You're constantly chasing performance with new creative, trying to recapture what worked.

Diversity thinking says: Run 15-20 distinct concepts simultaneously. Some will work this week. Others will work next month. 

Different creatives fatigue at different rates in different audiences. You're never dependent on any single winner.

What this actually looks like:

Your creative briefs aren't "make another version of the winner." They're "give me 5 completely different psychological approaches to the same outcome."

You have ads performing at 1.5X ROAS that you keep running because they're reaching different audiences at scale, while other brands would have killed them for "underperforming."

You're testing constantly, but you're not in panic mode when something drops off. Because you have coverage.

The brands that approach us talking about "creative fatigue" are running 4-6 ads. The brands that don't mention it are running 20+.

It's not a production problem. It's a strategy problem.

Most brands batch-produce creative once a month because they're thinking in refresh cycles. 

They should be producing 3-5 new concepts weekly because they're thinking in portfolio diversity.

When you have true diversity, individual creative performance becomes less critical. Your account doesn't swing wildly when one ad dies. You're not scrambling for a replacement winner.

You're just running a diversified system that smooths out the inevitable performance variance.

The question isn't "when should we refresh?"

It's "why aren't we diverse enough that it doesn't matter?"

After 6 months, we took this brand from ~$90K to ~$185K+ per day.

And it had nothing to do with better ads.

Here's the framework that unlocked $5.5M in monthly revenue:

✅ Research Before Spend

We analyzed 18 months of support tickets, had leadership call 50+ customers, and audited every creative that had ever run.

What we found: They'd been speaking to their smallest, noisiest audience while ignoring the segment doing the bulk of the buying.

Their messaging was dialed in for enthusiasts who cared about specs and features. 

But their actual growth was coming from people who just wanted something that worked without the learning curve.

The audience they'd been ignoring was 3x larger, converted better, and had significantly higher LTV. But every ad, every landing page, every product description was written for the wrong person.

Once we repositioned around what their best customers actually cared about, the entire funnel opened up.

✅ Separate Testing From Scaling

Here's where most brands break: they try to test and scale in the same place.

When you mix testing budget with scaling budget, you create chaos. 

Performance drops, and you can't tell if it's because your winner fatigued, your new tests are dragging down the average, or the budget increase triggered a learning phase.

But there was a deeper issue: their account was a mess. 47 active campaigns, overlapping audiences, campaigns with conflicting goals competing against each other for the same user.

We separated testing environments from scaling environments. New creative proved itself or died quickly in dedicated testing budgets. Winners graduated to scaling campaigns optimized for efficiency, not learning.

The simplification unlocked more efficient spend before we changed a single creative.

Top performers scaled from initial tests to meaningful daily spend without the performance degradation that kills most growth attempts.

✅ Authenticity Over Production

Raw founder content on iPhone outperformed polished brand content every time.

Short-form video generated 35% higher engagement and 28% lower CPA than statics.

✅ Geographic Expansion

By testing Canada, UK, and Australia, we increased total spend by 30% while maintaining efficiency. 

✅ Offer Testing Over Discounting

Instead of "20% off," we tested: 
→ BOGO structures 
→ Bundles that boosted AOV 
→ Threshold offers

A $100 product with $20 of bonus items feels better than the same product at $80. But your margin stays healthier.

✅ Post-click That Compounds

Desktop speed: 32 → 96
Mobile speed: 13 → 66
Advertorial landing pages converted 18% better
Global CVR hit 2.8%

The Result: $5.5M in 30 days.

We didn't chase breakthroughs. We stacked optimizations.

Better structure, authentic creative, smarter offers = better efficiency = more scale.

Research isn't sexy. 

But it's the difference between growth that scales and growth that stalls.

I've audited 150+ Meta Ad accounts this year.

These 5 critical structural issues appeared in almost EVERY account:

1. 𝗡𝗼 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗴𝗻𝘀

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲: 
→ Changes being made to campaigns already driving revenue 
→ Multiple large changes implemented simultaneously 
→ No isolation of variables to determine what's actually working

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴: 
→ 80/20 split between scaling and testing campaigns 
→ Clear promotion criteria for moving creatives from testing to scaling 
→ Scheduled testing cycles that don't disrupt scaling campaigns

2. 𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘁𝘆

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲: 
→ Over-reliance on one creative format (usually testimonial/UGC) 
→ Similar messaging angles across all creatives 
→ No testing of different creative formats by placement

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴: 
→ Balance of creative formats (UGC, lifestyle, educational, product-focused) 
→ Different hooks and angles mapped to audience segments 
→ Placement-specific creative (Stories vs. Feed vs. Reels)

3. 𝗔𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗱

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲: 
→ Unanswered questions in comments 
→ Negative sentiment not being addressed 
→ Missing valuable feedback that could inform future creative

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴: 
→ Comment monitoring and response protocol 
→ Comment sentiment analysis to inform creative strategy 
→ Leveraging positive comments as social proof

4. 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀:

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲: 
→ Traffic sent directly to PDPs
→ No alignment between ad messaging and landing experience 
→ One-size-fits-all landing pages regardless of ad angle

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴: 
→ Custom landing pages aligned with specific ad angles 
→ Problem/solution pages for problem-focused ads 
→ Comparison pages for competitor-focused ads

5. 𝗡𝗼𝗻-𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗔𝗢𝗩 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆:

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲: 
→ No upsell/cross-sell system in place 
→ No offer testing beyond occasional discounts

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴: 
→ Strategic bundle creation based on purchase patterns 
→ Post-purchase upsell flows 
→ Subscription offers with appropriate incentives

The uncomfortable truth:

Most brands will never scale beyond 6 figure im monthly spend because they focus on tactics (bidding, new platforms, audiences) rather than fixing these fundamental structural issues.

Are you making any of these mistakes?

3 growth levers separate brands doing $2M from brands doing $20M. 

Here's what the winners obsess over:

1. Offer Architecture

Your offer is your multiplier. A great product with a weak offer converts at 2%.

The same product with an irresistible offer converts at 5%.

What works:

>Starter bundles - "Try all 3 scents for $39" (vs. $19 each)
>Threshold offers - "Spend $75, get free product X" (increases AOV 40-60%)
>Risk reversal - "90-day guarantee + free returns" (kills the main objection)

Don't just discount. Make the value undeniable.

2. Conversion Rate Optimization

Most brands are leaving 2-3x revenue on the table from traffic they already have.

Install Microsoft Clarity today (free heatmap tool). 

You'll immediately spot where people get confused and bail.

Then run this test: Have someone unfamiliar with your brand complete a task while thinking out loud. "Find and buy women's blue leggings."

Watch where they hesitate. That's your friction.

The 3 pages killing your conversions:

Homepage - Answer these in 5 seconds: 
→ What makes you different? 
→ Why choose you over competitors? 
→ Why someone needs this now?

Navigation - Keep it simple: 
→ 5-7 main categories MAX 
→ Highest priority left, lowest right 
→ No jargon or clever names

Product pages - Kill objections before they ask: 
→ Clear specs (size, materials, quantity, weight) 
→ 5+ photo types (studio, lifestyle, UGC, close-ups, comparison) 
→ Visible returns/shipping/guarantees above the fold

3. Product Iteration

The brands hitting 8 figures don't launch and forget.

They obsessively collect feedback, then ship version 2.0, 3.0, 4.0.

Your customer feedback loop:

→ Post-purchase surveys (what almost stopped you from buying?)
→ Review mining (what do 1-star and 5-star reviews say?)
→ Support ticket analysis (what questions come up repeatedly?)
→ Interview your customers (yes - on the phone) 

Then iterate. Better packaging. Improved sizing. New colorways. Upgraded materials, etc...

Customers reward brands that listen with repeat purchases and word-of-mouth.

The pattern: 

Brands stuck at $2-5M fix one thing. 
Brands scaling to 8 figures fix all three.

Start with CRO, dial in your offer, then iterate your products based on what's working.

P.S. - If you want a fresh set of eyes on your entire acquisition ecosystem, DM me. We love finding bottlenecks 💪🏼

Here's a pattern I see constantly:

Brand finds a winning ad → Scales the budget → Performance flops

The problem? 

They're trying to test and scale in the same place.

This is just one of the structural bottlenecks that quietly kills scale.

In this week's newsletter, I'm sharing 5 tactical optimizations that most brands miss:

→ Why your account structure is limiting your scale 
→ Why authentic content beats production value every time 
→ The offer testing framework brands use to break $3M monthly 
→ The 4-5 metrics that actually matter (and the dozens that don't) 
→ How small wins compound into massive scale

These aren't the flashy strategies everyone talks about.

They're the unsexy, operational improvements that compound into 40-60% performance lifts over 90 days.

View newsletter: Brick-by-Brick Newsletter

Welcome back to The Brick-by-Brick Newsletter - where 7-8 figure brands learn how to scale efficiently. Before we dive into today's edition, a quick a

Open article: Unsexy optimizations that unlock 40%+ growth by Toby Waller • 6 min read

Unsexy optimizations that unlock 40%+ growth

Most brands think December is about extending their BFCM sale.
Wrong.
Here's what happens on December 1st that changes everything:

Consumer psychology shifts completely.

Black Friday → People buying for themselves 
December → People buying for others

Your creative strategy needs to reflect this, or you're leaving money on the table.

Stop selling products. Start selling the pride of giving a great gift.

Don't just say "this is the best product." 

Reframe it: How does giving this make them look thoughtful? 

What emotion does unwrapping create?

People want to feel proud when they hand over a gift. Tap into that.

The Gift Guide Play

Showcase multiple SKUs organized by recipient:

"For the coffee obsessed"
"For the skincare fanatic"
"For the person who has everything"

These ads perform exceptionally well through mid-December (or your last shipping day - typically Dec 15-20).

Two Critical Moves After Your Shipping Deadline:

Be brutally transparent about cutoffs. An angry customer who didn't get their gift before Christmas costs you more than a lost sale.

Switch to gift cards immediately after. There's still a segment of last-minute shoppers with budget and zero ideas. Solve their problem.

But the brands that understand this shift? 

They maintain profitability while everyone else goes dark.

December isn't about sustaining Black Friday numbers. I

t's about strategic positioning when the market cools down.

Most brands flopped BFCM in 2024. 

The winners did 3 things differently:

1. They tested in October, scaled in November

BFCM isn't for testing. 

Top brands locked in their winning creative and offer structures 6 weeks early, then went all-in on what converted.

While competitors scrambled with new concepts during peak CPMs, the winners were printing money on validated playbooks.

2. They engineered offers for retention, not just conversion

Bundles weren't about moving inventory - they were about creating customers who reorder. One brand built a "starter system" that paired their hero product with complementary SKUs.

The goal wasn't just higher AOV. It was higher LTV through product adoption.

3. They front-loaded revenue before the chaos

VIP early access 72 hours before BFCM captured revenue with clean attribution before Friday's pixel carnage.

Thursday night isn't early anymore. Wednesday is.

The 2025 shift:

Stop optimizing for GMV during BFCM. 

Optimize for contribution margin per customer acquired.

Your Black Friday offer should be your Trojan horse for Q1 retention, not a race to the bottom on CPA.

Core Bridge Partners

Alternative Investments professional serving as an outsourced COO/CFO to hedge funds and private equity firms. Two decades of experience in middle and back office operations, compliance and investor relations. Expert in investment vehicle launches and operations, spanning equities, derivatives, credit, distressed, global macro and private equities. Proficient in the complete life cycle of trading vehicles including open and closed end funds, domestic and offshore parallel and master-feeder structures, separately managed accounts, side pockets and Special Purpose Vehicles.

CFO and COO

GrowthLine Capital Management LLC

GrowthLine Capital is a long biased, high return seeking equity long/short fund that invests in companies benefiting from innovation driven disruptive change that can become multiples of their current size.
Developed and manage all operations including middle and back office, compliance, financial planning & analysis, management & administration and human resources of a rapidly growing financial firm.

Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Compliance Officer

Spruce House Investment Management LLC

Led all operations of a $2.6B Hedge Fund that grew from $800M.  Developed and managed all operations including middle and back office, compliance, financial planning & analysis, management & administration and human resources of a rapidly growing financial firm.

Chief Operations Officer, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Compliance Officer

Flintlock Capital

· Cofounded a discretionary global commodities hedge fund.
· Raised $160M from institutional investors in two years.
· Hired key employees including a Risk Manager, a Research Analyst and a Controller.
· Developed operational and risk policies, procedures and controllers for the funds and managed accounts.
· Managed the daily fund and business operations.
· Directed the business development and marketing efforts of the firm.
· Established and maintained strong relationships with prime brokers, futures commission merchants, broker/dealers, attorneys, compliance professionals, and auditors in order to quickly establish the firm and launch our funds.

Co-founder, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Compliance Officer

Tower Capital Asset Management

· Managed the daily operations of an SEC registered long/short equity fund of hedge funds with $650M in assets under management in five funds and a managed account platform. The firm previously sold $1.8B (13 funds) to a European bank.
· Supervised the operations team that conducts daily reconciliation and produces monthly NAVs for all funds. Conducted daily review of all fund performance and risk to ensure accuracy in front, middle and back office operations.
· Conducted operational due diligence on prospective hedge funds. Updated Tower Capital's Investment Process© to include a more formalized operational due diligence method.
· Formalized operational policies, procedures and controls by writing the firm's Standard Operating Procedures to bring all operations up to industry best practices. Managed external auditors for completion of all fund audits.
· Launched a $180M managed account platform consisting of a Bermuda Segregated Accounts Company with eight underlying funds. Oversaw the operational due diligence of underlying portfolio managers and negotiate contracts with prime brokers, fund administrators, accountants and other service providers.
· Upgraded the firm's information technology to industry best practices. Developed the firm's strategic IT plan and integrated IT across functional departments in alignment with strategic plan.

Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Compliance Officer

Scout Capital

· Managed the day-to-day operations of an SEC registered $2.5B long/short equity hedge fund consisting of seven entities ­ two offshore funds, two domestic funds and three managed accounts.
· Directed the implementation of a new Investment Management System (IMS), which included a new Trade Order Management System (TOMS) and a new Portfolio Management System (PMS). Conducted due diligence, supervised the implementation team and coordinated multiple vendors to ensure timely and cost effective completion of new systems.
· Established new trading and operating procedures to exploit the efficacy of new IMS across front, middle and back office operations. Ensured complete and seamless transition from legacy trading and portfolio management systems.
· Managed the investment company with responsibility for the development of a $4M annual operations and information technology budget. Implemented cost savings initiative by outsourcing financial model building to an overseas firm.
· Coordinated new office and IT build-out. Saved $250K of planned $3.8M construction and IT budget.
· Negotiated multiple contracts and agreements ­ Prime Broker Credit Facility, ISDAs, research agreements, executing broker agreements, liquidity providers, IT vendors and subleases.
· Managed legal review of contracts to include credit facilities, subleases, employee agreements and research agreements.
· Developed and wrote company Disaster Recovery and Business Continuity Plan. Established the firm's two DR sites.
· Hired key officers and employees to include a Chief Financial Officer, IT Manager and five Research Analysts. Streamlined human resources by implementing new HR software and establishing new hiring and termination procedures.

Director of Operations

Concordia Advisors

· Operations manager for an FSA and SEC registered $2.2B multi-strategy hedge fund. Worked directly with the Chief Operating Officer to manage the daily business operations of the firm and lead special projects.
·   Led the launch of four new funds: an ERISA Multi-Strategy Fund ($100M), a Municipal Opportunities Fund ($85M), a Credit Relative Value Fund ($150M) and an ERISA Fixed Income Multi-Strategy Fund ($25M).
·   Hired key employees including a Chief Compliance Officer, IT Manager and Investor Research Manager.
·   Formalized and wrote the firm's middle and back office Standard Operating Procedures.
·   Coordinated with the IT Manager to develop Business Continuity & Disaster Recovery plans with redundancy among New York, London and Bermuda offices.
·   Successfully met requirements for all books and records during an unannounced SEC audit.

Business Manager, Operations

Eastman Chemical Company

· Interim Chief Financial Officer for Eastman Diagnostics, a start-up company developed within Eastman Chemical Company. Acquired $5M company and closed $1.5M licensing agreement. 
· Developed financial integration plans for new corporation and conducted due diligence, analysis and risk assessment on multiple acquisitions.
· Led a team that implemented a portfolio management tool to enable senior managers to track developing businesses, apply financial rigor and mitigate risk by balancing the portfolio.
· Analyzed, forecasted and developed $16M annual business plan for eighty-four person department.

Financial Analysis Manager

U.S. Army

Captain, ODA 593, 5th Special Forces Group
· Led Special Operations unit capable of training and leading a 500-man foreign military and paramilitary force using host nation's own equipment and communicating in their native language.
· Led deployment to Kazakhstan to train host nation's military for Operation Balance Kayak.
· Planned and supervised 4-month, $14.7M overseas deployment of a 71-soldier Special Forces unit that trained 350- member foreign military organization in light infantry tactics, communications and battlefield medical procedures.
· Primary Special Forces Advisor and liaison to Kuwaiti Army during Operation Desert Fox.
· Developed Operations Plan Crimson Gold, the plan for the US Embassy in Kuwait in the event of a terrorist attack.
· Developed and directed training for foreign military and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency in Deliberate Decision Making Process, Counter-Narcotics Operations and Intelligence Collection & Dissemination.

Captain/Lieutenant, 3rd Ranger Battalion
· Planned and executed special projects for an Airborne Ranger Battalion of 440 personnel capable of no-notice worldwide deployment to conduct Special Operations in support of U.S. policies and objectives.
· Prepared organization to spearhead Operation Uphold Democracy, the planned invasion of Haiti.
· Awarded Army Commendation Medal. Selected for Special Forces Assessment and Selection.

Lieutenant, 82nd Airborne Division
· Leader of a reconnaissance unit that gathered analyzed and distilled information necessary to determine critical elements and provide key intelligence in support of a 650-soldier Airborne Infantry Battalion.
· Rated top junior officer in battalion on Officer Evaluation Report.
· Awarded Army Commendation Medal. Selected above 26 other lieutenants to serve in the elite Ranger Regiment.

Special Operations & Airborne Infantry

Former Green Beret & Airborne Ranger now CEO of Rising Wealth Club & CFO/COO of GrowthLine Capital

I joined Core Bridge Partners and as the former CFO/COO of multiple multi billion-dollar hedge funds as well as two start-ups. I leverage my 20+ years of experience in alternative asset management and my MBA from the Kellogg School of Management to help small and medium sized hedge funds, PE/VC and Family Offices with their operational needs and help grow their companies. I have a proven track record of leading, managing and helping to scale multiple funds.  

My background as a former US Army Special Forces commander ("Green Beret") has equipped me with exceptional leadership, decision-making and problem-solving skills, as well as a strong sense of integrity, loyalty and service. I enjoy working with talented and diverse teams and CIOs , building long-lasting relationships and creating value for my clients and partners.

David Walker

mmmm....maybe just a coincidence.  Nothing to worry about...lol.

Former Green Beret & Airborne Ranger. CIO, COO, CFO, investor, and author.

While the "Metabolic Overload score" is not a widely adopted metric, Cagle's underlying argument—that physical infrastructure, particularly energy, could limit AI's growth—is a potential consideration for investors. However, it is not part of mainstream financial analysis...so we'll have to wait a bit and see.  IMHO.

Father & Humanist | Strategy Advisor & Scholar | Founder of DecisionDNA

Last week I argued that AI is THE bubble. 
Today I provide the receipts.
We just released the first AI Bubble Index report.

The key number?  132x.

Not a P/E multiple.
A Metabolic Overload score.

AI is deploying capital 132 times faster than the  infrastructure can absorb.
The bottleneck isn’t silicon.
It’s watts.

The Physics of the Wall:
• FERC interconnection completion rate collapsed from 14% → 3%
• 2,900 GW stuck in queue. Only ~3% will ever connect based on our data
• Nadella: “I have chips I can’t plug in.”

He won’t be the only one

Prof. Procyon Mukherjee recently identified the "Hyperscaler Rebellion" against Nvidia, building on Howard Yu's thinking. 
They are right about the shift, and our data suggests the driver isn't only strategy; it's physics.

Some hyperscalers are shifting into "Island Mode": building power islands just to stay alive

xAI is running unpermitted gas turbines in Memphis.
That isn’t innovation. It's triage. And a dash of desperation. 

'Smart money' already sees it: US utility short interest is the highest since 1995.
Shorting the one thing that we all need?

Power?

Warren Buffett would disagree. (Michael M. Terry, CFA - I just did it...)

But the short sellers may have a point

The triggers are already on the calendar:
• CoreWeave credit cliff: March 2026
• Oracle $38B raise while flirting with an S&P downgrade
• Nvidia sits at the center of a circular financing loop that needs liquidity to spin

This is not dismissing the 'promise' of AI. 
AI is real and what it could do is earth-shattering; the valuations are not.

The system’s metabolism can’t keep up.
It will slow because physics can’t be bent.

Full 16-page report in comments. 👇

PS. those who signed up got the draft report on 30 November - thank you for your trust and support. 

#AIBubble #Macro #Metabolism #Infrastructure #DecisionDNA

View Till Christian Budelmann’s profile

Where people still use cash

The poorest countries rely more on cash, reflecting limited banking infrastructure.

And many wealthy nations are nearly cashless: South Korea (10%) and Norway (10%) show how digital payment infrastructure correlates with economic development.

And emerging economies like Mexico (80%) and India (70%) show that cash usage can be quite sticky.

Surprising outliers:
-Japan at 60% is remarkably high for such a technologically advanced nation (cultural preference for cash despite infrastructure?)
-Germany at 51% is an anomaly among wealthy European nations (due to cultural privacy concerns?)
-Italy at 62% stands out in Western Europe (informal economy prevalence?)

And China at just 10% is striking - this reflects its leapfrog to mobile payments (Alipay/WeChat Pay), bypassing traditional card infrastructure entirely.

Bergos AG  

Bankhaus C. L. Seeliger KG  

#macroeconomics
#economy
#china
#india
#germany

Source: Voronoi app by Visual Capitalist (link in the comments section), FOREX AB

With the unemployment rate at 4.4%, seems likely that a Fed rate cut will happen in Dec.  But, never forget that all FOMC members are humans.  And humans suffer from bias (political and personal).  Just a fact...about humans.

BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist

Competition for capital is increasing as AI build out becomes more #capital intensive. 

So yes, I care a lot if the #Fed is cutting this December, but in the grand scheme this environment means SECULAR trumps CYCLICAL. 

And it was brought to my attention yesterday, and I thought was good perspective so I am also sharing here, that the last time we had massive infra fibreoptics build out short term real #rate was at 4%.

Very good point.  Stay nimble my friends.

Chief Investment Officer & Member of the Executive Committee at Syz Group ¦ 250,000+ followers

View Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA’s profile

When Zoom ($ZM) was $600/sh in 2020, it had $20 million in income. Now, Zoom is $87/sh with $2 billion in income. What does that tell you about the current AI companies?

Source: Kevin Malone
@Malone_Wealth

lol.  This is so true.  So we wait and see.  Thanks for the laugh this morning.  :)

AI leaders on the edge.
#nvidia reports earnings this week
Twelve straight earnings beats on the line.
Will they beat again? Will it be the catalyst for a end-of-the-year rally ot will it be a "sell the news" event? 

Source: Trend Spider

More "crockroaches" in private credit land. 

Last week, lending giant BlackRock wrote down a private loan made to home improvement company Renovo Home Partners to zero. As recently as last month, BlackRock valued the loan at 100 cents on the dollar. 

The drastic revision comes as Dallas-based Renovo — a roll-up of regional kitchen and bathroom remodeling businesses created by private equity firm Audax Group in 2022 — abruptly filed for bankruptcy last week, indicating it plans to shut down.

BlackRock held the majority of Renovo’s roughly $150 million of private debt, while Apollo Global Management Inc.’s MidCap Financial and Oaktree Capital Management held smaller chunks, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing a private transaction…”

When one of America’s largest, most sophisticated lenders takes a 100% loss on a loan over the course of one month, it begs the question: what other "cockroaches" are hiding in the shadows? 

Source: Ross Hendricks
@Ross__Hendricks

Very interesting to see money supply expanding this aggressively even as global central bank balance sheets have been contracting.
What will happen once central banks inevitably need to expand their balance sheets again? 

Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg

Extreme fear levels

We may have been „bubbly“ a couple of weeks ago, but as of this moment, it’s hard to categorize the market as „frothy“ when CNN’s Fear & Greed index is sitting at one of its most „extreme fear levels“ of the last year.

It’s truly astonishing… the sentiment is (almost) as bearish as it was at the market’s lowest point in the first half of April. That’s not what complacency looks like.

Bergos AG  

Bankhaus C. L. Seeliger KG  

#investing
#markets
#sentiment

Source: CNN (link in the comments section), Bespoke Investment Group / The Bespoke Report, November 21, 2025, page 22 (link in the comments section)

They are correlated to each other because they are both correlated to Global Liquidity.  No surprises here.

Independent Macro Strategist | Financial Markets Commentator | • Historical • Macro Trends • Metals • Energy • Equities • Bonds • Real Estate • Crypto • Systemic Risk | Author of “Beyond The Headlines”

🪙 BITCOIN’S TICKING TIME BOMB? 💣

For me, Bitcoin’s recent decline is just the start of something bigger. It’s meteoric rise hasn’t been a revolutionary shift in finance, but rather a high-risk wager linked to the volatile U.S. tech sector. And if the AI bubble bursts-Bitcoin’s ticking time bomb is likely to explode right alongside it.

🎲 Bitcoin: A Tech Stock Gamble In Disguise
Bitcoin has long been hailed as:
✅ The "great liberator" from traditional finance
✅ The ultimate hedge against economic collapse
✅ The key to unlocking financial freedom
But Bitcoin is a leveraged bet on tech stocks—a digital game of craps. Over the past 13 years, Bitcoin has shown a staggering 94% correlation with the NASDAQ 100 3X Leveraged ETF, making it almost indistinguishable from one of the most volatile financial products in existence.

🔎 Bitcoin's Dirty Little Secret
The NASDAQ 100 is home to the most high-growth, high-risk U.S. companies. These stocks skyrocket during tech booms but crash hard during busts—just like we saw with the Dot-Com Crash in 2000. The 3X Leveraged ETF amplifies those swings:
📈 A 1% gain in the NASDAQ translates to a 3% surge in the ETF
📉 A 2% loss in the NASDAQ causes a 6% plunge in the ETF
And Bitcoin? It mirrors these moves. So, if we’re holding Bitcoin, we’re essentially gambling on tech’s rollercoaster ride.

🔮 What Happens If The Tech Bubble Bursts?
Right now, U.S. equities are in a super-bubble, with tech valuations completely overextended. The NASDAQ 100 is trading at its highest valuation relative to the M2 money supply ever. The only time this level of overvaluation has been seen? Just before the Dot-Com Bubble burst. Back in 2000, the NASDAQ 100 plummeted 84%, while the 3X Leveraged ETF fell by an estimated 99%. With Bitcoin’s 94% correlation to this ETF, Bitcoin could fall 99%, its price crashing from $126K to just $1.26K—a level we haven’t seen since 2017.

🟠 Fool’s Gold?
Bitcoin’s proponents call it "digital gold," but what of gold itself? In the 1970s, it soared 25X—only to crash 70% over the next two decades. Bitcoin—far more volatile than gold—could well suffer a similar fate: a massive crash followed by years of stagnation.

⏳ Is The Bull Run Over?
Gold took 28 years to recover from its 1980 peak. If Bitcoin is destined to be the "digital gold" of tomorrow, it may need to follow the same painful path—years of stagnation.

⚠️ Final Warning
Bitcoin is not a safe haven. It’s a speculative tech play, with all the volatility of a leveraged stock. For those of us who are holding Bitcoin—or thinking of jumping in—now may be the time to rethink our strategy. The truth is, Bitcoin’s ticking time bomb will explode. Just when that occurs, though, is anyone’s guess.

📩 Want To Navigate The Coming Storm?
Subscribe to my free newsletter 👉 https://lnkd.in/eS9HPvh2
 
💬 FYI—Lyn Alden, Scott Melker, Benjamin Cowen, David Morgan, Angus Taylor, Mike Trading, Dante Cook, Eddie Tofpik MSTA, ACI-UK, James Butterfill, Oscar Consuelo

I think it's funny how they drew a line at a certain point in time.  All across the globe, geographic boundaries have changed thousands and thousands of times over dozens of centuries.

Vice President at Northern Trust Corporation | POPM Product Owner Securities Lending | Passion to decipher market moves

Mario Nawfal/Reuters: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 XI ON THE PHONE WITH TRUMP: “TAIWAN RETURNS TO CHINA - THAT’S THE POST-WAR ORDER.” Xi Jinping on a call with Trump:

Taiwan’s “return to China” isn’t negotiable - it’s part of the post–World War II world order.

Xi’s message:
China and the U.S. once fought fascism together - so maybe they should team up again to “protect” the outcomes of WWII.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s government is reading this like, “Yeah, absolutely not.”

And Japan? Already signaling it could respond militarily if China attacks Taiwan - which Beijing is now calling a “diplomatic crisis” because Tokyo said the quiet part out loud.

Xi tried to sweeten the call by bragging that U.S.-China ties have “stabilized” since Trump eased tariffs and Beijing restarted soybean shopping. 

But this line about Taiwan is the real headline.

This wasn’t a request - it was Xi testing how far Trump will bend before the real Taiwan showdown begins.

But “Buy and Hold”.  The inflation adjusted price would have to be closer to about $86.00 adjusted for the CPI,  so it needs to gain about 60% still. 

The S&P 500 also took nearly 15 years to breakeven for the second time after the year 2000.  Just before 2008, the S&P 500 matched its year 2000 high and then went down 57% in 2008-2009. It didn’t recover to breakeven again until 2015. It took until about 2018/2019 to breakeven after inflation, then the COVID downturn happened and the S&P 500 went down over 30%. How many lifetimes, especially after inflation,  are required to successfully buy and hold anyway? 

🛑 Disclaimer 🛑

Nothing I post on LinkedIn should in anyway be construed as financial advice. Do not buy or sell anything for any reason based upon anything I say or post on LinkedIn. All investments entail various forms of risk and you can lose money in any type of investment.  Charts, graphs, and performance data are illustrative only and not predictive of future results.  As always, anything I post are stories of personal interest and any opinions are my personal opinions alone. I enjoy posting information and commentary that is at the intersection of finance and politics

11,000+ followers | Value Investing | CAGR: 19%

LET THE SECOND ACT begin in the AI drama.🤓
The biggest players have now used up their cash.
And from now on, further AI expansion will be financed with debt. 💵 

It’s the first time ever that Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft have more debt than cash combined.

These companies are using all of their free cash flow and are now tapping the debt markets.

If there’s just a slight hiccup, for example OpenAI suddenly growing a little less than expected, investors will zoom in on the debt situation immediately. 👀 

These companies are in no way in danger, they can always just stop the buildout and cash will pour into their coffers again. 💰 

But that would be a disaster for NVIDIA, the biggest company in the world, trading at 55 times earnings and expected to grow 90 percent in the next 12 months. 📈 

NVIDIA would then spend less at TSMC, and that would affect ASML and others.

It’s very easy to spend cash you already have. 🫰 

It’s more difficult to spend money you need to get from creditors first.

Burry might just be converting to a family office.  Once you make $100M, why manage outside money?

Yesterday: Michael Burry shutting down hedge fund
April 7: Tom Lee issues apology to investors
Signs of time? 🤔

Source: The Market Stats
@TheMarketStats

Interesting perspective.  However, even if we crash, your 2047 breakeven is probably too far off.  American ingenuity + AI + robotics = growth and eventual recovery.  My guess is even with a huge reset in equity markets due to lofty valuations, that America recovers faster than 18 years.  I am betting on Buffett's view of American ingenuity as a cornerstone of the nation's miraculous economic success and an unfailing force for future growth.

🌐 S&P 500: BLIND FAITH IN THE “NEW NORMAL?” 🚨

I’m still watching Wall Street spin its latest narrative with a mix of fascination and growing concern. Strategists insist today’s sky-high stock valuations are not a bubble… it’s the “new normal.” Yet, every time I hear that phrase, my mind drifts back to the truth of 1929, 1966, and 2000.

🎩 FLASHBACK TO 1929
Analysts back then claimed U.S. stocks had reached a “permanently high plateau.” What followed?
💥 An 86% crash
💥 Three years of devastation
💥 Lives and fortunes destroyed

🚨 TODAY’S VALUATIONS
🔺 Buffett Indicator—Highest since the “Roaring 20s” Bubble (1929)
🔺 CAPE Ratio—Highest since the “Dot Com” Bubble (2000)
🔺 Forward P/E Ratio—Highest since 2000, based on projected (not actual) earnings
🤔 And yet, Wall Street assures us it’s all… “normal”

🪦 “THE LINE OF DEATH”
For months, I’ve highlighted what I call “The Line of Death”—a resistance line on the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 that has held since 1966. It repelled markets during:
📈 Nifty Fifty Bubble (1966) ➡️ 65% crash lasting 16 years
💻 Dot Com Bubble (2000) ➡️ 65% crash lasting 9 years
📍 And now, in 2025, we’re hammering that same line again
 
🤖 THE AI NARRATIVE
Every era has its story:
🔷 1966—“The Nifty Fifty” (must-own blue chips)
🔷 2000—“The Internet will change everything”
🔷 2025—“AI is rewriting the future”
🔍 Yes, bubbles always feel rational… until the house of cards collapses

🚨 THE "AI BUBBLE" OF 2025
By some measures, today’s S&P 500 valuation is the highest in 96 years. If the wheel turns full circle:
🔻 S&P 500 could crash 65% over the next 12 years
🔻 From 6,750 points today ➡️ 2,360 points by 2037

⏳ “THE LINE OF PAIN”
What’s worse than a crash? The waiting game:
⛔️ 1966 Peak: Not revisited until 1993 ➡️ 27 years later
⛔️ 2000 Peak: Not revisited until 2017 ➡️ 17 years later

🫀WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US
If there is a reiteration of events… we may not see a return on our S&P 500 investment today until 2047. That means:
👩‍🎓 Aged 20 (graduating) ➡️ Aged 42 before we breakeven
👨‍👩‍👧 Aged 40 (with a family) ➡️ Aged 62 before we breakeven
👵 Aged 60 (nearing retirement) ➡️ Aged 82 before we breakeven
⚠️ Half a working life… just to get back to square one

🙏 WHY I SHARE THIS
I don’t write to scare anyone. I write share what I see—certainly not marketing slogans dressed as strategy. Here on LinkedIn, my commitment has been built around:
📚 Strong research
🎯 Painting a clear picture
💡 Offering insights to help people prosper

✅ Could “The Line of Death” be wrong this time? Yes
❌ Has it ever been wrong before? No

⚖️ FINAL THOUGHT
1️⃣ If Wall Street strategists are right ➡️ we’ll miss some upside
2️⃣ If history repeats ➡️ we’ll avoid a generational setback
🤔 So… do we believe in a “new normal” or do we trust history?

📩 WANT TO NAVIGATE THE COMING STORM?
Subscribe to my free newsletter 👉 https://lnkd.in/eS9HPvh2
 
💬 FYI—Lyn Alden, Patrick Karim, Kevin Wadsworth, Rick Rule, Otavio (Tavi) Costa, Mike McGlone

Best line:  "The American bet is simple: own the most compute, win the AI race."

The US has 5,381 data centers — more than China (449) and every other major nation combined. The American bet is simple: own the most compute, win the AI race.

But China isn’t playing that game.

Instead of chasing data center volume, China open-sourced frontier models (DeepSeek, Qwen, Baichuan) that run on cheap hardware.

DeepSeek trained a frontier model for $5–6M (vs. tens of millions in the US).

Inference costs are ~280x cheaper than ChatGPT.

Modular data centers deploy in weeks, built around ultra-low-cost power.

China isn’t scaling infrastructure. They’re scaling efficiency — and commoditizing intelligence.

Meanwhile, the US is hitting a wall: the power grid.

Data centers already use 6% of US electricity, headed to 11% by 2030.

Spare grid capacity has fallen from 26% → 19%, on track for <15%.

Some regions face 7-year waitlists just to connect new facilities.

Ohio alone rejected 17 GW of new data center interconnection requests.

You can build data centers. But can you power them?

China can.
By 2025, their installed capacity hits 3.99 TW (up 19% YoY). Renewables are nearly half of all generation. In the first five months of 2025 alone:

197 GW solar added

46 GW wind added

By 2030, China is expected to have 400 GW of spare power capacity — over 3× global data center demand.

The US built the most data centers.
China built the power to scale whatever it wants.

The real race isn’t about who has more compute today — it’s who can power their compute tomorrow. And on that dimension, China is pulling ahead.

Source: StockMarket.news, Apollo

Retail #investors and Quants dominate US #stocks #trading 

Source: Empirical research, RBC

Central banks have completely messed up market messaging. First Fed's schziophrenic communications sent Dec rate cut odds from 80% to 30% to 100%, and now the BOJ just send Dec rate hike odds to 80% from 20% ten days ago!

Source: zerohedge

So difficult to call tops (or bottoms).  Ask Stan Druckenmiller about his dot com short.

⚠️ S&P 500: CLOSE TO THE EDGE 🌈

I make no apology for banging this drum right now. Because I sincerely believe I’d be doing you a complete disservice if I didn’t warn you again:
🚨 The S&P 500 currently now offers possibly the worst risk/reward trade-off in history.

📊 FROM JANUARY TO TODAY: SKY-HIGH OVERVALUATION
🔷 Feb 2025 (Trump’s Inauguration): 141% overvalued at 6,147 points
🔷 Apr 2025 (Liberation Day Sell-Off): 21% crash to 4,835 points, still 108% overvalued
📍 Today (AI Hype): 41% rally to 6,800 points = RECORD BREAKING 169% overvaluation!

🚧 HEADWINDS IGNORED
Despite:
❌ A slowing labour market
❌ Restrictive Fed policy
❌ Trump’s tariffs biting
🤨 The S&P 500 is somehow up 14% year-to-date.

🐂 IN THE RED
The process of logical deduction says the S&P’s overvaluation is at a critical level:
🚀 A 10x return in 16 years (14.5% annualised vs historic average of 8%)
🤔 Yet few want to admit: we’re surely close to the edge.

🌈 THE RAINBOW CHART
My model (since 1970) is stark:
🟥 The S&P 500 is deep in the “dark red” zone
🚨 Not briefly visiting—living there for 2 years
😟 For comparison: 2021 only spent 1 year there.

🚨 WHY THE “DARK RED” MATTERS
🥳 It signals irrational exuberance
🤩 Markets priced for perfection & AI turbocharge
🤯 Anything less? Disaster.

📜 HISTORY LESSONS
 
📅 1982—Volcker Trough
💚 Valuation: 169% undervalued
📈 Result: 15x return (18 years)
🤔 Verdict: If 1982 was the lifetime BUY, is 2025 the lifetime SELL?

📅 2000—Dot-Com Bubble
💔 Valuation: 71% overvalued
📉 Result: 51% crash (2 years)
🤔 Verdict: Today? The market is 2.5x MORE expensive

📅 2007—Housing Bubble
💔 Valuation: 24% overvalued
📉 Result: 58% crash (2 years)
🤔 Verdict: Today? The market is 7x MORE expensive

📅 2009—GFC Trough
💚 Valuation: 94% undervalued
📈 Result: 10x return (16 years)
🤔 Verdict: If FEAR created opportunity in 2009, will GREED breed misfortune in 2025?

🤯 INVESTOR MOOD SWINGS
😨 1982—Extremely Fearful
😏 2000—Greedy
😟 2002—Fearful
😎 2007—Greedy
🤪 2025—Extremely Greedy

🐻 AM I A PERMA-BEAR?
No. My rainbow model says:
✅ BUY in 1982, 2002 & 2009
❌ SELL in 2000 & 2007
🤔 Today? It screams SELL!

⏳ HISTORY
💻 Dot-Com Boom (1982-2000): 15.5% annualised returns
🤖 AI Boom (2009-25): 14.5% annualised returns

📜 BUFFETT’S WARNING
1️⃣ “The first rule of investing is don’t lose money”
2️⃣ “The second rule is don’t forget the first rule”
💥 Today: Risk of losing money far exceeds the chance of making it. Some have seen the light. It’s no coincidence that both gold and silver have been on a tear this year.

⚠️ FINAL WORD
❗️ This bubble is bigger than 2000 and 2007 combined.
📈 Yes, we might miss short-term gains.
☠️ But avoiding this generational crash could save us from a lifetime of financial misery.
 
📩 WANT TO NAVIGATE THE COMING STORM?
Subscribe to my free newsletter 👉 https://lnkd.in/eS9HPvh2
 
💬 FYI—Ted Oakley, Peter Boockvar, Michael A. Gayed, CFA, Chris Vermeulen, David Rosenberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, James Bianco

Get one thing right and you can live off that reputation for the rest of your life.  Every article has "the man who shorted the housing market in 2008."  Congrats to him for getting that right.  But the decades of free marketing where worth billions more.

Executive Producer of “Money Game”- Grew Fidelity Focused Growth to over $7 Billion in assets. Solving the $340 Trillion problem.

Beware of financial “professionals” like Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA during a sovereign debt crisis that use the broken scoreboard to judge intelligence. 

Notice that he only looks at the scoreboard with the built in belief that markets are “efficient” and are “telling him something”. He NEVER discusses cash flows or the business. Yes, the “price” of TSLA went UP, but the “value” of TSLA is falling, just look at the cash flows. 

These people conflate valuation with value. Burry is right on the fundamentals, but during a sovereign debt crisis the FED manipulates interest rates (The Money Game) and stocks rip higher until the currency collapses. Burry is making the mistake that fundamentals matter, but as the FED manipulated rates (removed risk, QE), the ecosystem of capitalism changed. Now it’s all machines and a few index huggers or CIOs that make no decisions (but judge others) like @Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA 

‘When interest rates go negative (real terms), all assets are worth infinite, my coffee is worth infinite, my desk is worth infinite, my whiteboard infinite. Does this make sense?” --- Professor Gardner, Money Game '25

My coffee is worth "infinite" clip Below:
https://lnkd.in/e6BQKPQn

Someone should make a movie about this!! Money Game, 6 best film awards!
https://lnkd.in/echE7UGy

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