💃 Daily tech, business, & growth ideas | 🚀 Contrarian - what the crowd does, I do the opposite | 💻 22 y/o building cool products

🙋‍♂️ Yo. I'm a GenZ indie hacker & startup builder. Check out:

- engagekit.io to boost your LinkedIn outbound and organic inbound traffic
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And 4 more apps to launch in 2025.

Ky-Nam 🧑‍🚀

Strategic Leader | €130M+ Revenue from 20+ Product Launches | €100M+ in Fortune 500 Deals | LinkedIn Top Voice | Speaker & Thought Leader

Executive with 20+ years of experience scaling global teams, driving multi-million euro deals, and launching high-growth digital products. Proven track record of delivering results across business development, content distribution, and consumer products globally 

Strategic Growth: Spearheaded the launch of 20+ digital and consumer products, generating 385M+ installs and over €130M in revenue. Personally closed €100M+ in partnerships with Fortune 500 companies.

Global Leadership: Built and led high-performance teams in 15 countries and across 3 continents. Currently leading business development, consumer products, and content distribution at a leading global media company.

M&A & Advisory: Key player in multiple high-impact acquisitions - Shouji Mobile (Tencent, 2012), Spil Games (Azerion, 2019), and Underscore Talent (TheSoul Publishing, 2022). Founder of Mournival Consulting, guiding startups through €500K–€5M fundraising rounds.

Industry Voice: Recognized LinkedIn Top Voice. Speaker at GDC, Advertising Week, MIPJunior, PGConnects, and more. Published 40+ articles on AI, creator economy, and media strategy. Contributor to Entrepreneur.com Leadership Network.

Specialities & Core Competencies 
Strategic Execution • Go-to-Market Strategy • Revenue Growth • P&L Management • Digital Media • Content Licensing & Acquisition • Platform Growth • User Acquisition • Product Monetization • Media Partnerships • Cross-functional Team Leadership • Scaling Operations • M&A Strategy • Fundraising • Thought Leadership • Creator Economy • Data-Driven Strategy • Omnichannel Content Distribution

Patrik NATPE

Just 21 days into 2026 and we already hosted 2 ☕ networking breakfasts on 2 continents. In Dubai for 1Billion Followers Summit and yesterday in London during Pocket Gamer Connects. We had a fantastic group of people joining. Decision makers and influencers from Gaming, Micro Dramas, Social Media, Venture Capital, Cinema, Licensing, AI.

And the best part, all had experiences and best practices to share that are relevant for one another. Transmedia is real and AI is becoming a foundational layer for the media and entertainment industry. 

Some of the learnings from the last 2 days

💡 A multi-platform strategy distributes the same or lightly adapted content across multiple platforms to maximize reach and efficiency; it is fundamentally a distribution play.
💡 Transmedia, by contrast, designs distinct but interconnected content for each platform, where every channel adds new narrative, value, or function to the overall IP; it is an IP- and engagement-led strategy. 
💡 Türkiye reported 60 to 70% reimbursement of overseas digital marketing spend gives a massive advantage to participating companies. 
💡 Governments focus more on child protection and regulations when it comes to the media and entertainment industry. That's a good thing. 
💡 YouTube MFK monetization remains broken due and companies need to be able to generate revenues for the content quality to improve 
💡 Content for Micro Drama's is no longer a deciding factor. In it's current form. CEO drama, it's a commodity. 
💡 But companies are planning to diversify and stand out with new target audiences and genres. Exciting times ahead. 

Thank you all for coming ❤️ Michelle Perez Barruos 🔜PGC London, Xenia Shevnina, Simay Dinç, Victor Potrel, Philip James McGoldrick, Danny Spronz, David Mohr, Owen Rees, Paul Topping, Antonio Pasalic, Carlos Estigarribia 🔜 DICE  🔜 GDC, Christopher Bergstresser, Thiago de Freitas, Daniel Braybrook, Max Proctor, Florian Pabst 🔜PGC London, Fernando Vasconez 🔜 PGC London, Daniel Radianu

Next breakfast is planned for Feb 23rd during MIPTV in London again. DM me for more details

Patrik Wilkens 🔜 NATPE, MIPTV

👋 2 Billion subscribers, 330 Billion views, 35 platforms, 100+ IPs

I don't do conference slots before 11 am. And neither should you. Let me tell you why ... 

Earlier in my career, I ground through 3 straight days of back-to-back 30-minute slots. 8 hours of conference speed dating. It was necessary to learn the industry and earn my stripes.

But let's be honest about what actually happens in those meetings.

Everyone's 5 minutes late from their previous slot. You both deliver an elevator pitch about your company. Then you're both checking watches because the next person is waiting.

What's the value here? Nothing I couldn't have researched in 10 minutes on LinkedIn.

But, lets be honest. Nobody does business with a company. You do business with people. And you learn almost nothing about people in those hectic conference blocks.

The real work happens at aftershow events. Dinners where the pitch armor comes off. Hotel bar conversations that run past midnight. Wandering around Dubai because nobody can figure out how to cross the road, or trying to find ice cream on scooters at 2 am during Gamescom. 

That's where you actually understand someone's character. Get confirmation from mutual connections. See how they handle themselves when the conference badge comes off. That's where you build trust and connections. 

The morning keynotes get recorded anyway. But the late-night conversation where someone admits they're thinking about pivoting their entire content strategy? That's the intel that matters.

So if you ask me to skip the first 2 hours of a conference and stay out 2 hours longer at night? Deal. Every single time.

One exception 😁 : I host breakfast networking at 8:30 am during major conferences. If you've read this far, you know exactly why those work.

Next stops: 

NATPE, Miami 
MIPTV, London 
Licensing Expo, Las Vegas

Just not before 11 am 😉

Best way to start 1 Billion Followers Summit. Great people, insightful conversations. We talked about everything from ✨ mental health and well-being for Creators, ✨ the next milestones and pitfalls for micro dramas ...

✨ Thanksgiving tradition and matching dresses for brides maids 
✨ the future of micro and medium influencers 
✨ raising capital vs going cash flow positive from day 1
✨ Dubai's hospitality and the best place to be this Sunday * 
✨ conversion being the new KPI that matters in the creator economy

👋 If you want to compare notes, find me at Jumeirah lobby after 11 am Friday/Saturday or at the coolest events in the evening 😁 

Thank you Brittany Li 李伊雯 for hosting a fantastic event and the famous "White Rabbits". Looking forward to seeing you at my ☕ breakfast on Saturday 8:30 am - no running shoes needed 😜 

📸 Lucas Kollmann Tonya Frommelt Vira Slyvinska 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Andre Santos Vieira 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Asad Awais Tyler Chou 🔜 Dubai 1 Billion Followers Summit Lukas Steiner Oleh Pohoreltsev 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Jeff Frommer Marcus Bernette Catarina Larsson 

* for our secret Sunday activity, send a DM 🥷

Patrik Wilkens 🔜 1Billion Followers, PocketGamer

What. A. Day. Had the best time with awesome people while learning about new trends, comparing notes and doing business. Here are some of my notes ...

💡 Micro Dramas are no longer innovation, but an established industry
💡 Distribution is key, do not get caught supporting only one platform
💡 Brands will insource more and more social media management in 2026
💡 If you're walking less than 15000 steps, you're not networking hard enough
💡 Everything is e-commerce, we'll see more platform features ...
💡 ... and your revenue mix will shift towards conversion and sales
💡 There'll be no more MrBeast like creator but smaller, niche influencers
💡 Platforms will actively reduce reach and virality, pushing creators to pay-to-play

👋 See you at the Jumeirah lobby today or reach out via DM. 2 more days full of meetings and networking ahead. 

Xander Wilkins Paul Robert Cary  🔜 1Billion Followers Summit Dubai Ruslan Ranjabar William Bao Bean Lukas Runte Rosie Li 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Brendan Alper Ksenia Mershina ➡️ 1 Billion Followers Summit, Dubai, UAE Jim Louderback Marianna Kryvka 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Valeriia Puntus Naomi Lennon Jeff Frommer Michael Booth Oleh Pohoreltsev 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Yann Colléter 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Luis Allen Sebastian Wulff 🔜 1BFS Dubai Volodymyr Vasylchuk Alistair Gosling 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Benjamin Brown Alan Kronik 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Shay Thieberg Eli Igra Serfaty Jonathan Bruce Pelka 🔜 1 Billion Followers Summit Taz Patel

See you all in Dubai for 1 Billion Followers Summit I am in town Jan 8 - 11 and love to compare notes on brand building, social media management, branded campaigns, catalog monetization and micro dramas. 

want to join the ☕ breakfast networking on Saturday or our 🤝WhatsApp group, pls DM me

Next chances to connect in Person are

London, Jan 19 - 20 Pocket Gamer Connects 
Miami, Feb 3 - 6 NATPE 
London, Feb 22 - 24 MIPTV

🇬🇧 Pocket Gamer Connects was a great success. Lots of awesome people, great conversations and top networking events. Thank you all for the insights and learnings

Ilker Aydin for the table tennis lessons and Caglar Eger for his insights on "luck" and the ability to rise to the occasion when it matters.

Jamal Hassim for the olives, coffee and the warm welcome. Always great when connections from LinkedIn turn into real life friends. Check out BoltOS, great stuff! 

Special thanks to Cliff Fluet for moderating our panel about "transmedia law" and my fellow panelists Emmet O'Neill, Peter Lewin 🔜 PGC London, Simon Usiskin 🔜 D.I.C.E Las Vegas (afk). And thanks to AI, we had a full house 😜 

Thank you Chris James , Charlie Scowen and team for organizing and executing a top event!! 

Kartik Prabhakara and the team at Aream, as well as Falko Böcker, Danny Spronz, Ed B., Nick Allan for great networking events in the evening.  

And of course to everyone that took the time for a selfie ❤️ Peter Vesterbacka, Michail Katkoff, Owen Rees, Paul Topping, Michelle Perez Barruos 🔜PGC London, Jessica Banunaek, Jo Redfern, Sofia Gkiousou, Declan Pitts, Thiago de Freitas, Christopher Bergstresser, Charmaine Fernandes, Yannick Ferrero, Ole Schaper, Elena Egorova, Paul Nunn, Max Proctor and many more ... 

I ll also share a link to the pictures in the comments

❌ Khaby Lame didn't sell his company for $900M. Here's what actually happened. A Chinese livestream commerce operator bought exclusive global rights to the world's most-followed TikToker and plans to turn him into a 24/7 AI-powered shopping channel, banking on the idea that Western audiences will behave like Chinese consumers.

Spoiler: the math doesn't work.

Who Really Bought What

The headlines say it's Rich Sparkle Holdings (NASDAQ: ANPA), a Hong Kong financial printing company that made $1.74M last year.

The real buyer is Anhui Xiaoheiyang Network Technology, a Chinese livestream operator with 400M followers. They control:
- 51% of Khaby's operating company (Khaby owns 49%)
- Exclusive global operating rights for 36 months
- All livestreams, fulfillment, and logistics

The Unit Economics Are Broken

They're projecting $4B in annual GMV. For this to make sense, Khaby needs to generate $11+/follower. No Western creator has ever hit $1/follower through commerce at scale. For comparison, MrBeast is closer to $0.67 - for Feastables commerce.

And the rest of the equation doesn't look any better:

📦 US TikTok Shop: 1-3% convert, spend $70-120/year
📦 Chinese livestream: 8-12% convert, Chinese top KOLs like Li Jiaqi generate $1-3B in single sessions
📦 Khaby needs Chinese rates in Western markets
The gap is 100x.

What Khaby Actually Gets

Not much. All-stock deal (zero cash).
His 49% = $477M on paper in a stock that:
- Traded at $4
- Spiked to $150 on announcement
- Crashed to $50

He can't liquidate without collapsing the price.

At a more realistic $500M GMV (not $4B):
- Platform/fulfillment/operator take: 73%
- Khaby's cut: 10-12% = $50-60M/year

That's 2.5x his current $20M, but he gives up control for 36 months.

Why This Won't Scale

Khaby's 360M followers come for silent comedy, not product pitches. The AI twin speaking fluent Mandarin breaks his authenticity instantly.

Chinese e-commerce operators are betting Western audiences will adopt Chinese shopping behaviors. It's never happened. But I'm afraid this is where we'll eventually end up, TikTok as an always-on QVC channel.

What This Means for Creator M&A in 2026

Paper valuations in illiquid stocks aren't wealth. Your cut is 10-20% of GMV after everyone takes their share. If your model requires 100% replication of something that's never worked outside one market, you're doing lottery tickets, not M&A.

Probability this generates $4B? 0%, fight me on this *

But hey, the stock pumped 258% on announcement day. Which tells you whose exit this really is.

Khaby Lame got scammed.

* DM me for more numbers and research and to have a productive conversation on the merits of this deal and what it means for our industry

Dear LinkedIn, The new year has started, conference season is in full swing, and I’m looking forward to seeing many of you on the road again.

If you ever have to justify conference expenses internally, here’s a short framing you can copy, paste, and adapt as needed:

Conference ROI is not linear or immediate*. A coffee in Cannes can lead to an introduction in Las Vegas, which two years later turns into a master toy license that would never exist without the personal trust built at that table.

Unless we’re spending millions on inbound marketing that delivers daily qualified leads, or running an outbound machine with hundreds of high-quality touches per week, showing up in person is table stakes.

*Unless you’re selling a fully commoditized product with transparent pricing and known competitors—think iPhones, paper, or standardized marketing campaigns. In that case, you still show up… but yes, you also prepare an ROI report afterwards 😉

If you’re trying to decide which conferences actually matter, I’ve shared the view-only sheet I use to plan my own travel. Link in the comments.

👋 See you out there.

Let's be honest. If You're Releasing 26 Episodes on YouTube, You're OTT First on the Wrong Platform. 

I keep seeing studios blow their YouTube strategy with linear TV thinking. They produce an entire season upfront, 13x22min or 26x11min episodes, then drip them out weekly like it's Nickelodeon in 2004.

That's not digital-first. That's appointment viewing on a platform built for binge and algorithm.

Here's the problem: YouTube rewards consistency and volume, not perfection. The algorithm needs signals. Your audience needs touchpoints. And you need data to iterate.

Releasing once a week for 6 months doesn't give you that. You're treating YouTube like a broadcast schedule when it's actually a feedback loop.

Think of it like the gym. Going once a month with perfect form for 12 months? You won't see results. But go daily, even if your first sets are sloppy, and by Q3 you're crushing it. Consistency builds competence.

Same with digital content. Volume creates data. Data informs decisions. Decisions improve quality.

I'm not saying choose quantity over quality. I'm saying quantity enables quality over time.

But here's what actually happens with the OTT playbook on YouTube:
90% of budget goes to production.

10% left for distribution (programmatic views, paid social)
No budget for iteration or pivots.

No real-time feedback because you're locked into pre-produced episodes.

Algorithm doesn't reward you because you're not feeding it consistently
You end up with expensive content that underperforms because you optimized for the wrong platform.

Digital-first means:

📱 Ship faster, iterate publicly
📱 Let the audience tell you what works (watch time, CTR, comments)
📱 Feed the algorithm with frequency
📱 Reserve budget for amplification and optimization, not just production
📱 The channels winning consistently on YouTube? They're shipping 5xShorts and 2xLongs per week, 1400 Minutes is a good benchmark
📱 Test, learn, and improve in public. It doesn't matter how good you start, it matters have good you finish

If you're building for YouTube, stop thinking like a network executive. Start thinking like a creator with a production budget.

Your audience doesn't need perfection. They need consistency. And the algorithm demands it. 

🏆 Want to win on social? Send me a DM

For years, media and creator businesses optimized for one thing: more content, more reach, more scale. That playbook is breaking.

In 2026, production is no longer a moat. Platforms are behaving like television. Reach is losing value. Conversion, control, and ownership are taking over.
I’ve put together a board-level outlook on the structural shifts reshaping media and the creator economy, from why YouTube is becoming TV, to why some creator empires will break, and why the next wave of exits is inevitable.

If you’re still planning around views and followers, this will feel uncomfortable.
If you’re planning around IP, audience ownership, and ROI, it should feel familiar.

Full newsletter below 👇

Want to meet in person, lets connect during

1Billion Followers Summit, Dubai, Jan 8 - 11
PocketGamer, London, Jan 19 - 20
NATPE, Miami, Feb 3 - 6
MIPTV, London, Feb 22 - 24

View newsletter: The Attention Economy Weekly

Happy New Year and welcome back!Thank you for reading my latest article The Attention Economy Weekly: "10 Trends That Will Define Media and the Creato

Open article: 10 Trends That Will Define Media and the Creator Economy in 2026 by Patrik Wilkens 🔜 1Billion Followers, PocketGamer • 11 min read

10 Trends That Will Define Media and the Creator Economy in 2026

London Calling! See you all during Pocket Gamer Connects in London on January 19 - 20. I ll be speaking about transmedia and the future of the media and entertainment industry.

Transmedia matters because attention fragments faster than any single platform can monetize, and IP only compounds when it travels across formats with intent. 

I’ve seen this with first hand with an Angry Birds collaboration, where a social media campaign unlocked durable reach and brand economics, and with digital music artist Polar on Roblox, where immersive social worlds turned play into community and repeat engagement. 

Bottom line: games create demand; transmedia captures lifetime value.

I am also hosting an executive networking breakfast on Jan 20th, 8:30 am. DM me for details, we have a killer line up. Decision makers and trend setters from gaming, licensing, social media influencers and micro dramas.

London calling 🎶 See you all Sunday, Monday and Tuesday for Pocket Gamer Connects . Looking forward to connecting in person and talking about 

Transmedia strategies 
Winning on social media
Consumer product strategies 
Micro Drama 
Licensing catalogs for machine learning 

☕ Make sure to join our breakfast on Jan 20th at 8:30 pm as well

🎶 I am going to Miami, and I am attending NATPE. See you all at the Intercontinental Lobby. 

I'd love to talk about 

🎶 Micro Drama (production, publishing, apps)
🎶 Content catalogs for AI/LLM training 
🎶 Influencer and brand marketing 
🕹️ Roblox 
🎶 Transmedia collaborations between OTT/Linear IP, social media and gaming 

I am also actively looking for talent management agencies, Micro Drama apps, creator service solutions and creative agencies for M&A in 2026 💸

Let's meet up. Also at #MIPTV in London Feb 22-24. 

☕ DM me for details to our exclusive networking breakfast

🔮 YouTube's 2026 Priorities: What the CEO Letter Actually Means. I added my 2 cents on how this will impact your business and what it means for the future of the creator economy.

Let me start by saying I am bullish on YouTube and social media. I read my own text and it might come across as negative but Neal did such a good job promoting that I felt it would be interesting to look at areas that need improvement.

1. Creators vs. Studios (The Arbitrage Is Ending)

200B daily Shorts views, #1 in US streaming for three years. They've dropped "UGC", creators now compete as studios. The math: Ms. Rachel produces Emmy-nominated kids content for $5K-15K per episode. Nickelodeon spends $250K-500K. That 20-40x cost advantage is why YouTube wins.

But this only works while virality is free. Once creators need studio budgets to pay for eyeballs, unit economics converge with traditional media. Except YouTube owns distribution and takes 45%.

2. Kids Content (Great Controls, Broken Economics)

Industry-first Shorts timer, better parental controls, positioning as essential for education.
But COPPA compliance kills personalized ads, RPMs drop 60-80% for "Made For Kids" content. Ms. Rachel, Blippi, Cocomelon all monetize off-platform through merchandise and licensing. YouTube is lead generation.

3. Creator Economy ($100B Paid, Limited Intelligence)

$100B to creators over four years, $55B GDP contribution, 490K jobs. The scale is real.
YouTube Studio provides solid operational analytics: real-time revenue, traffic sources, retention curves, RPM data.

What's missing: business intelligence for predictable enterprise operations. No cohort analysis, competitive benchmarking, predictive modeling, or transparent fee breakdowns. You can see what happened, not model what will happen. Mobile developers pitch with LTV curves. YouTube creators pitch with "views went up."

4. AI (Systematic Job Elimination)

1M+ channels using AI tools daily. Autodubbing, editing, scripts, thumbnails, music, synthetic avatars.

Video editors, voice actors, scriptwriters: 70% job loss already happening. AI pushed everyone on-camera because that required "you." 

But TikTok deploys AI avatars now. YouTube lets you create Shorts "using your likeness."

The playbook: eliminate support jobs (done), force everyone on-camera (current), replace talent with AI avatars (18-24 months).

⚠️ Mohan talks about "AI slop," but the real issue is high-quality AI replacing the 490K jobs YouTube just celebrated.

Bottom Line:

YouTube is non-negotiable infrastructure. What matters is understanding the macro shifts:

production costs dropping while visibility costs rise, platform monetization weakening for kids content, AI eliminating production jobs while raising the creative bar.

Capture the current cost arbitrage, build off-platform revenue early, invest in AI production capabilities, and focus brand equity on defensible differentiation.

Did I miss anything? Let me know in the comments

The streaming industry just hit a tipping point that changes everything. 52% of U.S. households now use ad-supported streaming tiers. Not as a backup. As their primary choice.

Three years ago, AVOD was the "budget option."
Today, it's the only business model that scales.

👋 Hey gaming folks, same is happening to you. Lets meet at Pocket Gamer Connects and discuss in person

The numbers tell the story:
→ Ad revenue growing 21.3% YoY
→ Subscription revenue growing 4.2% YoY
→ By 2027, they converge

Netflix makes MORE from ad-tier users than premium subscribers.
Disney+ ad-tier ARPU will exceed premium by 2026. 
Amazon converted 100% of Prime Video to ads-by-default.

It's a complete restructuring of streaming economics.

In my latest newsletter, I break down:
- Why consumer wallets hit a structural ceiling
- How platforms engineered ARPU parity between tiers
- What content strategy looks like in an AVOD-first world
- Why TikTok's PineDrama signals what comes next

The subscription wars are over and everyone became an advertising platform.

Read the full analysis in my latest newsletter article: Ad-Supported Streaming Just Crossed 50% Adoption: The AVOD Endgame

Thank you for reading my latest article The Attention Economy Weekly: "Ad-Supported Streaming Just Crossed 50% Adoption: The AVOD Endgame". I regularl

Open article: Ad-Supported Streaming Just Crossed 50% Adoption: The AVOD Endgame  by Patrik Wilkens 🔜 NATPE, MIPTV • 6 min read

Ad-Supported Streaming Just Crossed 50% Adoption: The AVOD Endgame

Why TikTok’s "Minis" launch is the biggest media signal of 2026. The "micro-drama" experiment is officially over. It is now an established, $12B+/year industry.

In late December 2025, TikTok quietly launched "Minis", a dedicated in-app hub for serialized, vertical dramas.

This strategic pivot moves the format from specialized standalone apps (like ReelShort and DramaBox) directly into the world’s most powerful video ecosystem. 

By integrating dramas into the main app, TikTok removes the biggest barrier to entry: the friction of downloading a separate app.

Here is why this matters for the media landscape in 2026:

1. Market Validation ($12B+ in 2025) If you thought this was just "clickbait," look at the numbers. TikTok’s entry validates a massive global shift:
Global Revenue (excl. China): Hit $3 Billion in 2025.
China Benchmark: The domestic market exceeds $9 Billion, now outpacing their traditional movie box office.

2. The Strategy: Friction & Commerce TikTok isn't just hosting content; they are fixing the user journey.
Retention: Keeps "binge-watching" behavior in-app.
Commerce: Connects directly to TikTok Shop and offers 10% discounts on coin purchases to undercut the standalone competitors.

3. The 2026 Outlook: Consolidation & The Squeeze
The Mid-Tier Trap: User Acquisition (UA) costs are rising. I predict we'll see 50% mid-tier apps not surviving 2026. The'll probably bring their content to TikTok’s. We will see massive consolidation.

The Premium Defense: Top incumbents (ReelShort, DramaBox) are notably opting out of Minis to protect their premium data and revenue. Of course they are. 

But it's not all rainbows and skiddles. TikTok's ad-share model can't match the lucrative "direct payment" model of the standalone apps. Producers will be squeezed for margins. 

The Bottom Line: TikTok is betting that vertical dramas are the new "Soap Operas", and they want to own the network.

💬  Will they succeed and how do you see the market in 2026? I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments 👇

OpenAI just validated everything I've been writing about the death of subscription models. And they're about to learn it the hard way. ChatGPT Go launched at $8/month with ads. Plus, they're taking 4% cuts on Shopify transactions. Multi-stream monetization: subscriptions, ads, lead-gen, commerce.

Meanwhile, Google Gemini and Anthropic's Claude stay free. No ads. Clean UX.

Here's why OpenAI's timing is terrible:

OpenAI moved too early. When you're still fighting for distribution and market share, you don't tax the user experience. You optimize for adoption and lock-in first. Google and Anthropic understand this. OpenAI apparently doesn't.

The subscription play was always a mirage. Experts project AI-mediated revenue growing from $20B today to $900B by 2030. With the lion's share coming from advertising and lead generation.

Sound familiar? It's the exact same structural shift I've been documenting in streaming:

- Subscription growth hits a ceiling
- Consumer wallets are tapped out
- Advertising becomes the only scalable revenue driver

The difference? Netflix waited until it had 230M+ subscribers before introducing ads. OpenAI is doing it at a fraction of that penetration, while better-funded competitors stay free.

What this really means:

For platforms: AI is becoming the new distribution layer. Whoever controls the default AI interface controls discovery, transactions, and attention. This isn't about ChatGPT revenue, it's about owning the pipes.

For advertisers: The entire performance marketing stack is about to get disrupted. If AI agents mediate product discovery and purchasing, traditional DSPs and attribution models break. The platforms that own the AI layer will capture the margin.

For creators and brands: Your SEO playbook is dead. Your social distribution is at risk. If ChatGPT or Gemini becomes the default interface for "find me X," you need to be inside those systems, not just discoverable by them.

The Trillion $ Question: Which platforms will control enough distribution to make advertising revenue matter? 

Right now, OpenAI is bleeding share to stay afloat financially. Google and Anthropic are playing the long game.

My take: OpenAI just handed its competitors 12-18 months of runway to build distribution while staying free and ad-free. By the time OpenAI's revenue model stabilizes, Gemini will be the default for 2 billion Android users and Claude will own the enterprise.

💬 What do you think, is OpenAI making a strategic error, or am I missing something? And for those building in this space: where does your content/brand fit in an AI-mediated discovery world?

🤥 The Musk Promise Index: A 15-Year Reality Check (2026 Edition) If there is one constant in the tech world, it is "Elon Time."

For over a decade, Elon Musk has operated on a unique calendar where "next year" is often a placeholder for "eventually," and "impossible" is just a Tuesday. 

The gap between the headlines and the hardware/software offers a fascinating case study in visionary leadership vs. operational reality.

I’ve (Gemini ;) cataloged 15 years of Musk’s major public predictions to answer a simple question: What is the actual exchange rate between a Musk promise and reality?

Predictions vs. Reality (2011–2026)

Below is a breakdown of the most significant targets set by Musk, their original deadlines, and their status as of January 2026.

The "Elon Exchange Rate" If you are an investor or observer, you have likely learned to apply a conversion rate to these promises.

Hardware timelines: Add ~3–4 years (Cybertruck, Semi, Starship).
Software timelines: Add ~5–10 years (FSD).

What do you think? Does the constant shifting of goalposts damage credibility, or is it the necessary cost of dragging the future into the present? Did I miss anything?

💬 Let me know in the comments below 👇

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Patrik NATPE

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The Battle

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Patrik NATPE

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