Ignacio Ramirez Moreno, CFA

Pictet Group

Fixed Income Advisor

BNP Paribas Wealth Management

• Headed Switzerland’s Fixed Income Advisory Desk offering and product development
• Responsible for the active coverage of the Emerging Markets debt book exposure of Switzerland, Luxembourg and Monaco
• Permanent speaker of the “Weekly Investment Ideas” presentation, exposing to the Swiss Front Office the latest views and recommendations of the Fixed Income Advisory Desk
• Trained regularly the Swiss Front Office on Fixed Income concepts in the context of an initiative to award internal diplomas to Relationship Managers and Investment Counselors
• Collaborated with the Paris-based Global Fixed Income Advisory Desk in order to shape the investment strategy of the group, enhance client engagement and comply with existing and upcoming regulations

HSBC Private Bank

•	Managed actively standard and bespoke Emerging Markets Fixed Income advisory portfolios for clients based worldwide
•	Engineered and monitored the bank's Emerging Markets fixed income product offering, specializing in hard currency debt
•	Contributed to the generation of tactical and strategic investment ideas across asset classes
•	Participated in the Emerging Markets fixed income committee shaping the investment strategy of HSBC Private Bank
•	Presented to ultra-high net worth individuals, institutional clients and within the bank on current market conditions and trade ideas
•	Responsible for preparing and distributing on a daily basis the Emerging Markets Advisory Desk publications (e.g. outlooks, bond lists, new issues analysis, corporate actions, country/company ad hoc notes)

Emerging Markets Investment Advisor

•	Measured portfolio risk indicators and implemented remediation action plans
•	Prepared material for the “Sales Quality Standards” HSBC training program and provided support in the process of granting internal structured products licenses

Business Risk and Control Management - Graduate Analyst

•	Supported Investment Advisors by reviewing client accounts and proposing changes in their holdings in line with the bank’s views across asset classes
•	Created an interactive platform that filters HSBC’s selected bond universe and generates tailor-made lists

Investment Advisory Latin America and Europe - Graduate Analyst

•	Backed relationship managers in order to meet ultra-high net worth individuals’ requirements
•	Performed an exploratory study on how the U.S. Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act regulation would impact HSBC Private Bank and its activities from 2011 onwards

Relationship Management Latin America - Summer Analyst

Praetorian Capital

•	Assisted Spanish and French publicly listed companies to raise capital through private placements 
•	Managed process from initial company screening until terms sheet signature

Country Manager Spain & France

Opinno

•	Evaluated business plans and technology feasibility proposals of Spanish start-ups seeking to obtain private equity and business angels funding
•	Contributed to the management of the MIT Technology Review magazine in its Spanish version overseeing both its content and the management of its partners

Summer Analyst

Ignacio is a Fixed Income product specialist with Pictet, which he joined in 2018. 
He previously worked at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, where he headed the offering and product development of the Swiss Fixed Income Advisory Desk. He was also responsible for actively covering the bank's Emerging Markets debt book exposure in other locations, such as Luxembourg and Monaco.
Ignacio also worked at HSBC Private Bank as an associate in the Fixed Income Advisory team and at Praetorian Capital, a Danish private placements agent, as Country Manager for Spain and France.
Born in Spain and having lived in eight countries, he holds two Master of Science in Economics and International Business and a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration and Management. Ignacio is a CFA® charterholder.

Are you ready for the chocolate apocalypse? 🍫 
 
Cocoa prices just rocketed past the $9,000/ton mark for the first time, and folks, it's not because everyone suddenly decided to bake a cake. 
 
In March alone, prices in New York cocoa futures took a leap of about 60%, making Willy Wonka's job a whole lot tougher. 🤯 
 
Why, you ask? 
 
Well, the supply's tighter than your jeans after Thanksgiving. 
 
Ghana, a cocoa heavyweight, is facing some serious cash flow issues, limiting its ability to pay those hard-working cocoa farmers. 
 
This shortage has us staring down the price tag of $10,000 cocoa. ⚠  
 
So, what does this mean for your sweet tooth?
 
Expect those Easter eggs and your favourite chocolate bars to demand more coin. 
 
Chocolate bar manufacturers are getting creative, shrinking bar sizes and experimenting with less cocoa-intense recipes. ⚗ 
 
But let's face it, there's only so much you can do before a chocolate bar becomes a... not chocolate bar. 
 
Some analysts are hinting this could just be the start. 
 
With diseases and lousy weather messing with cocoa trees and rising sugar prices, next Easter might just break the bank. 
 
And with new EU regulations and a shrinking mid-crop in the Ivory Coast, things might just get tighter. 
 
Could chocolate become the next luxury item, right up there with caviar and vintage wine? 
 
Let me know in the comments below! 👇
 
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Bunds are stealing the spotlight from Treasuries. 💸

Big money managers are shifting their investments from US government bonds (a.k.a. Treasuries) to European ones (e.g. German Bund).

They're betting that Europe's cooler inflation will let its central bank cut interest rates sooner than the US Federal Reserve. ✂️

This is because lower inflation usually means a central bank can reduce interest rates to stimulate the economy.

The US and European economies are starting to go in different directions.

Europe's got softer inflation and a weaker economy, which means the European Central Bank (ECB) might cut rates more than the Fed this year. 📉

The market's expecting maybe three or four rate cuts from the ECB, compared to just two or three from the Fed.

Both US and European government bonds have sold off this year, pushing yields higher as investors are expecting fewer rate cuts.

But the US Treasury yield has gone up more than the equivalent German bond. 🚀

This has led to an increase in the gap, or spread, between US and German borrowing costs, which now is at 200bps.

Interestingly, if the ECB cuts rates faster than the Fed, it could make holding bonds in the Eurozone more attractive compared to US Treasuries.

But, if the ECB gets too far ahead with rate cuts, it could weaken the euro and risk pushing inflation back up. 🥵

Will the gap between Treasuries and the Bund keep growing?

Comment below! 👇

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Could the BOE cut rates before the ECB or the FED? ✂️

Investors are currently scooping up UK government bonds (a.k.a. "gilts") like they're the last pieces of candy in the store. 🍬

Why, you ask?

Well, they're betting that the Bank of England (BOE) will be the first to cut interest rates, beating its buddies in Washington and Frankfurt to the punch. 🥊

Some analysts are convinced that the markets aren't fully appreciating the BOE's potential to make quicker and deeper rate cuts than other central banks.

Even though there's only a one in five chance of a rate cut at the BOE's May meeting, these experts are confident that the BOE could be the first to make a move.

As a result, demand for UK government bonds is reaching record levels, with recent auctions for 20-year and three-year debt attracting the highest-ever bid-to-cover ratios.

So, it looks like investors' love for these bonds is growing. ❤️

With the 10-year gilt yield around 4.20% — compared with 2.40% on German bunds — big players are piling into UK gilts, seeing them as better value.

Time to build some GBP bond positions, or is it too late already?

Let me know in the comments. 👇

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FRESH NEW RECORD: the longest yield curve inversion in history. 🚀 
 
According to the CME Group, the inversion between the US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has just set a new record, extending to 428 days.
 
Specifically, we surpassed the previous record last Friday. 
 
The earlier record was set from 1978 to 1980, when the inversion lasted 423 days, making it the longest until now. 📉 
 
Interested in verifying the data for yourself?
 
Simply go to Google, type "FRED T10Y2Y" into the search bar, and click on the first link. 

Easy-peasy.
 
Despite this historically long yield curve inversion, a US recession has yet to materialize. ⌛ 
 
This raises questions about what the future holds.
 
Are markets still on the brink of challenging times, or might we avoid a US recession this time? 🙄 
 
Share your thoughts in the comments.
 
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A good Fixed Income (short) read 📰 
 
Is credit too expensive?
 
Arguably, yes, although it still holds plenty of value. 💎  
 
But how can something be pricy and juicy at the same time?
 
The attached article sheds some light on this question.
 
My favourite part of the piece is the following short paragraph summarizing things pretty neatly:
 
"Absolute yields are very high now, and it is yields, not spreads, that ultimately determine the bulk of returns. And spreads can stay tight for a long time in benign conditions. But with spreads so tight, they could double if something went wrong, which would move prices dramatically downward."
 
So, what's your take on credit?
 
Too tight, or still a buying opportunity? 💸 
 
Let me know in the comment below! 👇
 
Link to Financial Times piece: https://lnkd.in/efkv7W3P

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Open article: Can spreads ever be too tight? by ft.com • 6 min read

Central banks are in a rate race: some sprint, others stroll. 🏃‍➡️🏃‍♀️‍➡️

Central banks are dancing to their tunes, and it's not exactly synchronised swimming.

When Switzerland made a splash by cutting rates last week, it was like that friend who decided it was time to leave the party early, surprising everyone. 🇨🇭 

Their move whispered tales of an incoming global rate-cutting season, or so some thought.

But not all central banks got the memo, it seems. 

The Bank of England played it coy, steady rates but easing off the gas pedal ever so slightly. 

They're inching closer to the exit but still enjoying the music. 🎧 

Meanwhile, the Fed's Powell appeared unfazed by inflation sticking around like the last guests at a party, hinting no major moves were coming. 🇺🇸

But here's the kicker: 

Each central bank is marching to the beat of its drum, with no unified choreography in sight. 

Switzerland's dive into rate cuts doesn't necessarily mean others will follow suit promptly.

Their unique stance, optimistic inflation outlook, and knack for surprises set them apart. 🏔️

This divergence paints a complex picture. 

On one side, there's a sense of relief as some banks hint at more leisurely days ahead. 

On the other, the lack of coordination underscores the unpredictability of the economic landscape. 

It's like trying to harmonise in a choir where everyone's singing a different song. 🎶

As we navigate these mixed signals, one question looms: 

Can the global economy find its rhythm amid these disjointed moves, or will the lack of coordination lead to a cacophony of market reactions? 

See you in the comments. 👇

#markets #investing #economy #money #stockmarket

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The corporate bond market is riding a wave of optimism 🌊
 
Breathe easy, finance fans. 
 
The doom and gloom around a giant bond maturity wall just got a reality check. 
 
Refinancing rates for corporate bonds are hitting the floor, making CFOs everywhere dance happily. 💃🕺 
 
Thanks to a combo of rate-cut hopes and cash-rich investors, the bond market is hotter than a summer sale at your favourite online retailer. 
 
Global corporate bond supply? It's not just up; it's breaking records. 
 
Junk bonds are shedding their "costly to refinance" label. 
 
Investment-grade companies? They're refinancing on the cheap. 
 
"The refinancing penalty? Not as scary as last year. 🚀 
 
As a result, lower-rated companies, once staring down a steep cliff, now see a gentler slope ahead. 
 
But let's not get too cosy. 
 
Some hurdles remain, with high yields and economic uncertainties lurking around the corner. 
 
Yet, the overall vibe? Optimistic. 👍 
 
Companies have cleverly manoeuvred their debt, turning what was once a wall into more of a staircase. 
 
The 2025 maturity mountain for global high-yield companies has shrunk significantly from over $300 billion to under $200 billion. 
 
"Terming out debt" is the new corporate mantra, and it's working wonders. 
 
So, what's your take on this bond market bonanza? 🙄 
 
Are we seeing the start of a more stable financing environment, or is this just the calm before another storm? 
 
Comment below! 👇
 
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Will the Fed cut this year? ✂️

Investors are beginning to believe that the US Federal Reserve will not be cutting interest rates as quickly as they anticipated earlier this year.

This change of heart follows the release of some strong economic data, suggesting that the Fed may wish to maintain slightly higher borrowing costs to control inflation. 🛡️

At the beginning of the year, expectations ranged from six to seven rate cuts. Currently, the market anticipates only two quarter-point cuts, with a 50/50 chance of a third.

This shift in sentiment is partly attributed to the impressive jobs data released on Friday. 💼

Consequently, there is a growing belief that the Fed may delay rate cuts until they are certain that inflation is approaching their 2% target.

This change in expectations could complicate matters for other central banks considering rate cuts this year, as it could weaken their currencies against the dollar. 💸

So, what do you think?

Will the Fed cut this year? 

Comment below! 👇

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“The compression of beta” is the Fixed Income theme of the moment 🗜️

Corporate bond investors are currently on a tightrope, accepting minimal protection against default risk amid a booming "everything rally."

But what happens if the rally takes a tumble?

The extra cash investors earn from lending to US companies over the government is dwindling. 📉

This is due to an optimistic economic outlook and potential monetary easing.

Interestingly, spreads kept shrinking even as rate cut expectations were trimmed this year.

The issue?

Risk premiums on corporate bonds are converging rapidly.

Investors aren't distinguishing much between junk and investment grade bonds. ⚠️

As a result, those holding high-yield bonds could be in for a shock.

Despite the higher default risks, the extra yield on high-risk bonds is at a 17-year low.

Buyers seem unfazed by the increased risk.

This trend could continue as more yield-chasers enter the market.

In times of stress, investors typically seek safer investment-grade bonds, widening the spread gap.

But right now, this gap is smaller than the 20-year average. ☢️

This "ignore-the-spread, focus-on-the-yield" approach could signal a bubble.

The takeaway?

Keep a close eye on spreads and risks.

If a recession hits, high-yield spreads could double, and investors will start caring more about credit risk.

It's a wait-and-see game with high stakes. ⌛

In my view, this is a “negative convexity trade” at the moment (i.e. the upside potential is a lot smaller than the downside on an absolute basis).

You can, of course, make money, but things could go very wrong too.

What’s your take on this? 

Is credit too expensive?

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One of my favourite monthly research pieces is the BofA Fund Manager Survey. 🗳 

It's where around 300 of the brightest minds in institutional, mutual, and hedge funds globally discuss market trends. 

The latest scoop contains a major plot twist: US tech stocks are out, and European and emerging markets are the new darlings. 🚀 

These finance pros are also all in for a bit more adventure, with risk appetite at its peak since November 2021, all while dreaming of a soft economic landing. 

And the debate on AI stocks? 

It's neck and neck, with the crowd split on whether we're in bubble territory or just kicking off. 🙃 

Do you have any thoughts on this bold move from professional investors towards taking more risk? 

Are they too optimistic or just rightly adventurous? 

Let me know in the comments! 👇

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Is the PBOC the new Fed? 🤔

Chinese President Xi Jinping recently commented about the People's Bank of China (PBOC) possibly starting to trade government bonds to regulate market liquidity.

This is similar to what the Federal Reserve and other big central banks do.

The comments sparked a bunch of chatter among traders, with some thinking China might be considering quantitative easing (QE), which is a fancy way of saying they'd buy up government bonds and other assets to boost the economy.

It's a strategy used by the Bank of Japan, the Fed, and others when things get tough economically.

But not everyone's buying into this idea.

Some economists don't see Xi's comments as a significant policy shift.

For one, Xi mentioned buying and selling bonds, whereas QE usually involves buying and holding onto them. 💸

Plus, interest rates in China are still above zero, so there's less need for the PBOC to resort to QE, usually used as a last-ditch attempt to get people to spend when interest rates are super low.

The PBOC hasn't said anything about Xi's speech, but in the past, it's been pretty sceptical about QE. 🤨

Instead, some think that trading government bonds might be another way for the PBOC to keep the market liquid and rates stable.

They have other ways to pump money into the economy, but these methods have their issues, and trading bonds could give them more flexibility.

While it seems like the PBOC might start buying up bonds, it's still unclear when this might happen. 🙄

Some think it could be a slow process, while others believe it might happen sooner if China decides to stimulate its economy.

The impact on Chinese yields is also a bit of a question mark.

The bottom line is that Xi's comments have stirred up quite a bit of speculation.

Once a central bank starts trading government bonds, things can escalate pretty quickly. 🚀

But whether this will become a full-blown QE situation or just another tool in the PBOC's toolbox remains to be seen.

What’s your take? Will the PBOC emulate the BOJ or the Fed soon?

Comment below!

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Investors can’t afford to ignore credit, especially European ones. 💸

Ever glanced at European credit and wondered, "Is this my next great investment?"

Here’s a scoop coming from Pictet Asset Management: a blend of euro investment grade and high yield credit has consistently outperformed the combo of German government bonds and European equities.🚀

And for those sweating over the risk of defaults, here’s a comforting fact: the default rates are lower than you might expect, and even when defaults happen, recovery rates are relatively high. 

So, why not diversify your portfolio with some European credit? 

It might just be the strategic edge you’ve been looking for.

What's your take on European credit? Comment below! 👇

Link to article: https://lnkd.in/eWm4zE8N

#markets #investing #economy #money #stockmarket

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Open article: European credit - Pictet Asset Management by am.pictet • 2 min read

European credit - Pictet Asset Management

Dim sum bond sales are on fire 🔥

Companies are selling a ton of these things called "dim sum bonds" like hotcakes.

These are bonds issued outside of China but in Chinese currency (yuan).

Why?

Well, it's pretty cheap to borrow in yuan right now. 💸

In March, the sales of these bonds reached the highest it's been since people started keeping track in 2007.

Now, why is this happening?

It's mainly because of different monetary policies in the US and China.

The US Federal Reserve has been hiking up interest rates to control inflation, making it pricier to issue bonds in dollars.

China, on the other hand, is keeping its rates low to boost growth. 🚀

So, some borrowers are saying "why not use yuan instead of dollars?"

Most of these bonds were issued by financial institutions, contributing to more than 60% of total sales in March.

Local government financial vehicles, which are used for stuff like building roads and bridges, made up another 23%.

This surge in dim sum bonds is also in line with China's goal to make the yuan a global player. 🌎

And it's happening just as China is trying to keep its currency stable against the rising dollar.

What your view on dim sum bonds?

Comment below! 👇

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Are credit markets priced for perfection? 🤔 

Investors are flocking to US corporate bond markets like bees to honey, and who can blame them? 
 
With a whopping $22.8 billion poured into corporate bond funds this year, we're seeing the first positive start since 2019. 🚀
 
Investors are eager to snap up the juicy yields before the Fed cuts rates, pushing prices up and squeezing spreads tighter than a packed subway car. 
 
The buzz is all about investment grade bonds, but don't overlook junk debt. 
 
Junk spreads have rallied to 26-month lows, nearly touching pre-financial crisis levels. 😲
 
Yet, some are biting their nails, worrying if we're skating on too thin ice with this level of tightness.
 
Meanwhile, borrowers aren't shy either, issuing bonds like they're going out of style.
 
But here's the kicker: are credit markets priced for perfection?

Are spreads too tight?
 
Let me know in the comment below! 👇
 
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Green bond issuance hits new highs 🌿
 
Issuers are snagging the opportunity to fund green projects like there's no tomorrow. 
 
The latest data reveals a whopping $188 billion in green bonds were dished out this quarter. 💸 
 
January and February were off the charts, setting the stage for a record-breaking spree. 
 
But why is this happening?
 
Currently, the globe's debt appetite is insatiable, and green bond issuers have taken good note of this, riding the borrowing wave. 🏄‍♂️ 
 
These are good news for a part of credit markets that has not received much positive media coverage in the past few months.
 
Could ESG-labelled bonds be on their way to get back their mojo?
 
Comment below! 👇
 
#markets #investing #economy #money #stockmarket

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ESG Conference 2024 Spotlight 🌟 

Discover the complexities of implementing ASIP ESG Investment Reporting Standards and Guidelines for Pension Funds at our Geneva ESG Conference. 

Rachel Whittaker, CFA, Head of Sustainable Investing Research at Robeco, will moderate this session, which will feature insights from renowned industry experts: 

➡ Lars Kaiser, Head Group Sustainability, VP Bank AG
➡ Angela de Wolff, Founding Partner, Conser 
➡ Martin Roth, CEO Manor AG Pension Fund, President Schweizerischer Pensionskassenverband ASIP 
➡ Pascal Frei, CFA, Partner, PPCmetrics AG

Gain essential perspectives on sustainable investing that you won't want to miss.

Register for the ESG Conference in Geneva here: https://lnkd.in/ebGhGe5H

#ESG24 #esginvesting #pensionfunds 

Everyone's buzzing about the Fed's dots today, but watch out! 👀

The Fed's knack for predicting the economy's future moves a few quarters ahead is just as good as yours or mine.

Sounds crazy, right?

Look at the Fed's long-term dots (their rate predictions four years down the line) for the past decade and match that up with the actual Fed funds rate four years later (see image attached).

And the verdict?

I'll let you call it. 😅

The fed funds rate hasn't once hit where the FOMC thought it would.

It hung out way below for most of the 2010s, then shot up like a rocket. 🚀

So, as always, do your homework and sift through the post-FOMC meeting buzz, but take it all with a grain of salt.

What's my main takeaway from yesterday's Fed meeting?

A couple of months of stubbornly bad inflation data haven't budged the Fed's view.

They're still buying the disinflation story, and their game plan for rate cuts this year hasn't changed. 📉

So, here's my question for you: do you reckon the Fed will actually slice rates this year?

And if so, by how much?

Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇

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CCC-rated credit keeps raising eyebrows 🤨

The riskiest type of corporate debt, CCC-rated debt, is becoming a real hazard for investors.

As headlines of restructuring start to appear, particularly in Europe, investors are becoming wary of this kind of debt. ⚠️

It seems like the days of cheap money from central banks, which made defaults less likely, are over.

With interest rates rising fast, some companies have difficulty refinancing their loans at a much pricier level.

The Bank of England also warned recently about the risk of credit spreads widening. 📈

This is a big issue for borrowers, especially since European banks have been lending less to corporates.

Fitch Ratings believes the default rate on high-yield bonds could go up to 4% this year from 1.7% in 2023 because of leverage, debt maturities, and declining performance.

But it's not all doom and gloom. 🥵

According to Bloomberg, CCC or below-rated debt “only” makes up 8% of Europe's junk index, so the problems might not spread too much.

What’s your take?

Could this be a “canary in the gold mine” moment for credit markets?

Comment below!

P.S. If you made it this far, make sure to ♻️ share this post and 🔔 subscribe to my profile.

We came a looong way 😅 

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Pictet's graduate program is now open! 👋 

Looking for a graduate programme that gives you a thorough introduction to the financial industry?

Look no more. You've found it. 👀 

If you have any queries regarding this fantastic program, shoot me a DM.

And don't be shy. My inbox is wide open for all of your questions! 💌 

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Are you ready to embark on a journey into the dynamic world of finance? 

The Pictet Graduate Programme is now accepting applications for the 2024 intake.

Pictet’s Graduate Programmes are designed to provide you with a comprehensive introduction to the financial industry while offering you the opportunity to develop your skills and make a real impact from day one. With three key components - Build, Connect, and Apply - our programme will equip you with the technical expertise, interpersonal skills, and self-leadership capabilities necessary to thrive in today's competitive landscape.

Click on the link below to learn more about the programmes and visit our career website to apply for a position. 

https://lnkd.in/eKRVcmSh

#GraduateProgramme #GraduateScheme #Graduates #MBAs #MBA
#Graduates2024

Taplio

Ignacio Ramirez Moreno, CFA's Linkedin Analytics