The People's Economist

-- Founder and developer of fin-tech startup whose goal is to provide leading edge personal finance tools and to democratize availability of financial analytics, data and finance/economics related news. I personally built most of the backend and prototype for the front end. The webapp is currently in early beta testing and is scheduled to be released in the fall of 2022.  

--Global Tier 1 Hedge Fund

Developed a regional housing risk scorecard and analytics for the Spanish residential housing market. The scorecard used a mix of housing, demographic and economic statistics to produce both a heat map and risk score at the regional and subregional level. The analytic tool was used to bid on a $10B portfolio of mortgages in Spain.

--Afghanistan Central Bank: Presented to audit team of Afghan Central Bank. Presentation topic was the role of Central Banks in Financial Inclusion. 

-- Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) Fintech Startup - Working with a fintech startup using Artificial Intelligence to simplify and automate reading of CLO legal docs. The firm aims to revolutionize the way CLO legal documents are analyzed, read and used. Assisted in curating deal documents, developing client checklists,  developed ESG scorecard and client marketing.

 Founder and consultant 

Financial Inclusion Forum UK

Financial Inclusion Forum UK is a network raising awareness of financial services for the poor and sharing best practices.

-- Report directly the board and play the lead role in organizing all events, contents, board meetings and strategy. 

-- Played a critical role in organizing events including Digital ID, financing low-cost private schools, Universal Basic Income for Financial Inclusion Week, Impacting Investing, financing healthcare for the poor.

-- Authored the Digital ID Chapter in a book on regulatory technology. 

-- Played a lead role in organizing a strategy offsite event. 

-- Lead board member recruiting process.

Executive Director

Democrats Abroad

Worked as a volunteer with Democrats Abroad UK. 

Helped lead, organize and conduct knowledge sharing and discussion sessions on various topics including: economic inequality, healthcare reform and higher education.

Contributing author to Democrats Abroad 2020 platform.

Volunteer policy analyst, DAUK

The Grid Cafe

Successfully operated a 7-month cafe pop-up offering creative healthy food including sweet potato waffles, smoothies, yogurt parfaits, designer porridge, and vegan desserts. The Grid was the top rated food service in our delivery area

Director

BRAC USA

I had worked with BRAC since 2007 (beginning as a volunteer, then Advisory Council, Board member and full time). . BRAC's programs include agriculture, healthcare, microfinance, education and social enterprises.

Member of the Interim Executive Committee at BRAC USA. The IEC was responsible for governance and management during a transition between CEOs. 

I have field experience in Bangladesh, Uganda, Myanmar, South Sudan, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

My most recent role for BRAC had been Senior Advisor responsible for supporting BRAC's agriculture value chain programs including development of strategy and fundraising.  Previously I had been Chief Knowledge officer as well as program lead for West Africa and several programming areas including health, financial inclusion, education and agriculture.   

I have been responsible for preparing funding proposals in a range of areas including nutrition, agriculture, livestock, health, microfinance, mental health post-Ebola in Liberia, fee paying schools in Bangladesh, girls education program in Afghanistan and financial inclusion.

I have also worked on social investment related projects with specific focus on an agriculture SME investment fund, a microfinance securitization and investor due diligence related to investment in our West Africa microfinance companies. In addition, I worked on various tasks related to Development Impact Bonds (DIBs).

Senior Advisor

Top Tier Hedge Fund

Developed a regional housing risk scorecard, forecast and analytics for the Spanish residential housing market. The scorecard used a mix of housing, demographic and economic statistics to produce both a heat map and risk score at the regional and local level. The analytic tool was used to bid on a $10B portfolio of mortgages in Spain.

Global Tier 1 Hedge Fund, Consultant

PIMCO

Lead asset Specialist at Pimco Advisory for Structured Finance. Provided  valuation and risk management solutions to world's largest financial institutions and governments.

-- Built a team from 0 to 20 over a 3 year period and managed staff in 3 cities.
	
-- Delivered new models across multiple asset classes including cards, student loans, autos and European RMBS.
	
-- Executed large, complex mandates, under tight deadlines with limited resources.
	
-- Key mandates included the NAIC valuation of 20K individual RMBS bonds. Assignment had meaningful implications for the capital levels of the entire US life and P&C insurance industry. 
 
-- Drove development of macroeconomic forecast process that was far more quantifiable and precise than existing macro process. Process enabled multi-year forecast for several macro variables along probabilistic dimensions. Blended largely qualitative macro expert judgment approach, with more quantitative approach thereby creating a direct, more precise link between PIMCO’s macro expectations and the behavior of specific consumer and commercial loan assets. Approach also created an inherent consistency across asset classes. Also enabled conversion of 5 macro forecasts into a simulation framework. 

-- Participated in meetings with government officials at various levels. as well as round table, chaired by the head of the FDIC.
	
-- Presented at several  industry conferences.
	
-- Developed time tracking and project management templates to improve time and resource management of  team.
	
-- Significantly enhanced PIMCO’s loan level mortgage database including critical fields such as loan modifications, servicers and servicing advances.
	
-- Defended modeling approaches in front of regulators.
	
-- Published several articles with topics including strained consumer balance sheets and the impact of a Euro exit on European RMBS.

TechnoServe

Worked for 2 months on a plan to develop cocoa value chain.

Emerging Enterprise Program Advisor

Credit Suisse

Head of consumer loan securitized research. Led a team of ABS analysts that were top ranked by Institutional Investor magazine for 7 years. Published market leading research on consumer credit during the height of the financial crisis. Covered topics included mortgage loan modifications, consumer bankruptcy, credit card, auto and student loans. Built Wall Street's leading Consumer Asset-Backed bond analytic platform.

During the height of the financial crisis my team's research were frequently sited and sought by the media and regulators and I was consulted for policy input by Department of Treasury and other regulatory agencies.

Moodys Corporation

Rating agency analyst responsible for analyzing and assigning ratings to a range of mortgage-related securities, including prime mortgage, non-prime mortgages, manufactured housing and Latin American MBS.

-- Developed algorithm that detected large RMBS issuers were repurchasing delinquent loans from securitizations in order to allow performance triggers to pass. Our analysis resulted in significant industry changes to deal structures.

Senior credit officer

With over 30 years of experience in the financial services and global development sectors, I am passionate about driving financial inclusion and innovation with AI and analytics.  I have been frequently quoted in the media, including Time Magazine, Forbes, NY Times, WSJ, FT, and Bloomberg.

As the founder and consultant of The People's Economist (www.tpehub.com), a fin-tech startup, I am developing a suite of personal finance tools, news, and information content that will democratize access to financial data and insights for a broad audience. The web app is currently launched in trial.

As the Executive Director of Financial Inclusion Forum UK, a network raising awareness of financial services for the poor, I reported directly to the board and played a lead role in organizing events, content, strategy, and board member recruitment. I have also authored a chapter on digital ID and financial inclusion in a book on regulatory technology, and contributed to the Democrats Abroad 2020 platform as a volunteer policy analyst. 

Throughout my career, I have worked for leading organizations such as Credit Suisse, PIMCO, BRAC USA, and a top-tier hedge fund, developing award-winning research and analytical platforms, advising on large-scale post-crisis bailout engagements, and supporting social enterprises in various program areas.

The Vanishing: Unpacking the Radiating Cracks of First Brands and The Implications for the Broader Market

First Brands Group’s bankruptcy isn’t the largest in history—but it’s massive enough to mark a turning point in modern credit markets. At roughly twice the size of Greensill’s collapse, which helped sink Credit Suisse, FBG exposes the fragility of today’s shadow banking and private credit ecosystem. 

In this article, I break down FBG’s creditors, structural makeup, and the radiating risks that emanate from its failure.

Jefferies, lead banker to FBG, faces scrutiny for its dual role: structuring FBG’s debt while placing much of it in its own CLOs and Point Bonita fund. The latter fund itself had about 20% exposure to FBG and is now seeing redemption pressures.

Two key creditors, Raistone and Onset, were deeply entangled in FBG’s inventory and equipment financing. FBG was Raistone's largest client and they shut down in the wake of FBGs bankruptcy. Raistone also raised issue of the disappearing in $2.3B in receivables. 

Equipment lease company Onset, FBG’s largest creditor, faces a potential existential crisis from a $2B exposure built through aggressive sale‑leaseback deals. Their September 2025 default notice likely triggered FBG’s collapse.

The fallout stretches across funds and CLOs—UBS O’Connor, Keystone, Western Alliance, and Jefferies‑controlled Apex—demonstrating how interconnected risk has become. “True sale” disputes over receivables could strip FBG’s estate of real assets, reshaping future trade‑finance structures.

FBG isn’t an isolated failure—it’s a shot across the bow against a levered, opaque financial system built on private credit, vendor finance, and complex off‑balance‑sheet lending. The next failure may already be brewing.

#privatecredit
#bankruptcy
#vendorfinancing
#supplychainfinancing
Jefferies

Rod Dubitsky

Founder @ The People’s Economist, Top Ranked Wall Street analyst, journalist, Personal Finance expert

First Brands Group (FBG) isn’t the largest bankruptcy ever. It is however 2x the Greensill bankruptcy which was sufficiently large to contribute to Cr

Open article: The Vanishing: Unpacking the Radiating Cracks in First Brands' Bankruptcy and How $2B Disappeared by Rod Dubitsky • 10 min read

The Vanishing: Unpacking the Radiating Cracks in First Brands' Bankruptcy and How $2B Disappeared

Critical Audit Matters and BDCs

Company financials often include a section called “Critical Audit Matters.” I noticed this in several BDCs, where the Critical Audit Matter generally relates to private credit assets valued using a Level 3 (L3) approach. L3 assets are valued using methodologies that include a fair amount of discretion and judgement. 

I already threw some shade on BDC valuations in my article on BXSL, Blackstone’s public BDC. I noted with surprise and concern that 200 out of 600 line items were valued precisely at par. That is hardly a serious valuation process. The importance of Level 3 asset valuations can’t be overstated. In BXSL’s data I found that 95% of their 600 investments were Level 3.

BDCs as a whole sold off recently approaching their one year low dating back to the liberation day sell off and the discount from NAV is also growing. 

Below is the disclosure from Prospect Capital (PSEC), the most troubled BDC and the one trading at the largest discount (60%) to NAV (see chart). With Prospect Capital investors are shouting from the roof top that they don’t trust the valuations. 

Their auditor (Deloitte), specifically was expected to review the L3 Critical Audit Matter and didn't raise any issues. Yet investors seem to be questioning big time the valuations. Do you trust Deloitte’s diligence or market opinion? 
 
Below is an excerpt from Deloitte’s review from Prospect’s 10K.

"We identified the valuation of Level 3 investments as a critical audit matter given the significant judgments made by the Company to estimate the fair value.

This required a high degree of auditor judgment and extensive audit effort, including the need to involve fair value specialists who possess significant valuation experience, to evaluate the appropriateness of the valuation methodologies and the significant unobservable inputs used by the Company in the determination of fair value."

And here is the cliffhanger from Deloitte:

"With the assistance of our fair value specialists, we developed independent fair value estimates and compared our estimates to the Company's
concluded values for a selection of Level 3 investments.

We evaluated management's ability to reasonably estimate fair value by comparing management's historical estimates of fair value to subsequent transactions, taking into account changes in market or investment specific conditions, where applicable.”

And??? That’s it. It’s like if the screen went blank in the movie Jaws just as Roy Scheider, said “smile you so of a b@#%c” before unloading into the shark.  

Deloitte offered no conclusion but since they signed off on the financials we can assume their review of the Critical Audit Matter concluded that Prospect's valuation process was reasonable.  

But the 60% discount?? If you’re a buyer of Deloitte’s audit you ought to load the boat on Prospect Capital. If you’re the least bit skeptical, you may want to hold off. 

This is an issue with all BDCs. 

#bdc
#privatecredit

Exclusive: Connecting the dots between between Apollo, BDO and First Brands

Join me for an interesting tale of intrigue and serendipity. 

The players: BDO USA, Apollo Global, Tenneco and First Brands. 

In my recent First Brands article, I raised questions about Apollo's First Brands’ short.
 
Recently, I learned that Apollo was a large lender to BDO USA, who was in turn First Brands’ (FBG) auditor. BDO (5th largest auditor) has by far the highest percentage of audit exceptions (see chart).

On further investigation I learned something much more troubling. 

As always comments appreciated.

See key timeline and facts below:

August 2023 – Apollo loans BDO $1.3B. That Apollo was a large lender to the auditor of a company they shorted is interesting in itself. 
 
But this was no ordinary loan. The loan was used by BDO’s ESOP (Employee Stock Ownership Plan) to buy 42% of the company from insiders. 

The ESOP transaction was the subject of a lawsuit against BDO which provided additional details of the transaction. The suit claimed that BDO inflated the value of the company in order to assert control and enrich management. 

The below excerpt highlights Apollo’s role:

“Prior to the Transaction, the BDO ESOP had no assets with which to purchase the Company’s stock. To facilitate the transaction, the Company entered into a private credit deal with Apollo Global Management affiliates (“Apollo”), through which Apollo provided the Company the funds required to consummate the transaction.”
 
The below excerpt addresses the overvaluation issue: 

“Based on the best information available to Plaintiff, BDO’s pressure campaign caused both historic and projected earnings to be inflated. These inflated earnings were used to value the Company..”

According to the lawsuit, the Apollo loan is incurred by the ESOP, but guaranteed by BDO (EG BDO is required to make payments into the ESOP to service the debt). My understanding is that if BDO defaults, Apollo will be able to claim the ESOP assets. Given the BK of FBG and the Apollo debt burden, the idea of BDO defaulting may not be farfetched. 

As noted in the suit: “This private credit deal placed an enormous debt burden on BDO and the ESOP.”

Though the suit was dismissed in August, the dismissal wasn't related to the facts of the case. 

Aug 2024 – One year after the BDO loan, Apollo initiated a short on First Brands debt. Apollo also owns one of First Brands' main competitors – Tenneco.

Mar 2025 – BDO issues a clean audit opinion on First Brands, one of their largest clients. 

Jun 2025- BDO announces dozens of layoffs and halts non-essential travel to contend with Apollo’s debt.
 
Sep 2025 – FBG files BK and Apollo closes short. 

Apollo's was no ordinary loan. It was directly responsible for enriching and entrenching BDO management. Does it have any connection to Apollo's short? Can't say. But it is curious. 
          
BDO
#accounting
#firstbrands
#bankruptcy
#privatecredit
#privateequity

The U.S. Treasury has purchased Argentine pesos and finalized a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina’s central bank

It's happening. In addition to the currency swap lines the US, in an extraordinarily rare  move. is intervening in currency markets. Even during the Mexican Tequila crisis the US didn't intervene in currency markets and have only intervened in Yen and Euro markets. 

And by the way, Argentina is selling soy to China at a record pace while US soy farmers are shut out of China. AND the US will likely need to bail out US farmers. owing to the tariff folly.

And today President Trump threatened to kick Spain out of NATO.

And finally Bessent's hedge fund buddies are in Argentina in a big way. Who are we bailing out exactly?

#Argentina
#bailout
#hedgfunds






https://lnkd.in/d4xMpKY8
via ABC News App

Open article: US buys Argentine pesos, finalizes $20 billion currency swap by abcnews.go.com

US buys Argentine pesos, finalizes $20 billion currency swap

The Tish James Affair – A Miscarriage of Justice

“As they have dared, so shall I dare. Dare to tell the truth.”
 --Emile Zola, J’accuse

In previous posts on Letitia James, I argued that the occupancy fraud allegations on her Virginia property and property misrepresentations on her Brooklyn property did not stand up to scrutiny. 

Last week’s indictment, validated my conclusions. The actual indictment is a threadbare version of the allegations from Pulte’s criminal referral. Gone is the Brooklyn property entirely and gone is the accusation that she claimed the Virginia property as primary residence. 

The remaining wafer thin allegation is that she claimed the VA property as a second home but should have claimed it as investor property, evidenced by some rental income.
 
The total amount of ill-gotten booty earned from this nefarious escapade? $18K. Over 30 years. Or, using my handy TPE calculators, about $48/month for a present value < $10K. 
 
Now that the case has shrunk to a bitter nothing, it's clear why Trump hired and fired prosecutor decided not to bring charges -  the evidence for fraud was so much thin gruel.

Based on the indictment, it’s still not at all clear she did anything wrong. She bought the apartment for her niece (who lived there) and so obviously it wasn’t intended as an investor property. 

Though apparently James reported rental income, she is permitted to earn rental income on a second home according to Fannie Mae’s own guidelines: 

“If the lender identifies rental income from the property, the loan is eligible for delivery as a second home as long as the income is not used for qualifying purposes, and all other requirements for second homes are met (including the occupancy requirement above).”

The one-sided indictment sinks from its own weight of nothingness.  

Some argue that regardless of evidence, she deserves to ingest her own bitter medicine. She went after Trump, live by the sword, etc. While it’s debatable whether she should have filed civil charges against Trump, the case was not frivolous and there was ample evidence.  

3 examples:

1) Trump represented his Trump Tower penthouse as having 30K square foot when it was only 11K. Trump team’s valuation of the Triplex went from $80M to $327M from 2011 to 2015. From 2017 the true valuation was revealed and it dropped to $116M in 2017 (see chart). Is there anyone who wants to argue that an intentional overvaluation of a property by $200M is a misdemeanor or a witch hunt? 

2)  Trump couldn’t refi 40 Wall Street, so his CFO Allen Weiselberg, called his son and head of originations at Ladder Capital who refinanced the loan. The appraisal used an NOI 2x historical and the loan was fobbed off into 3 CMBS. The CMBS holders were reliant on this “harmless puffery." 

3) Trump Park Avenue: materially overvalued primarily by treating rent stabilized apartments as market rate apartments. 

#mortgagefraud
#tishjames
#justicedepartment

In today's headline, classified under the category "lessons not learned":

"US banks cheer regulators' steps toward easing capital requirements"

Let me share another headline. From 2008:

"U.S. regulator's 2004 rule let banks pile up new debt"

From the above story: 

"We have a good deal of comfort about the capital cushions at these firms at the moment."

- Christopher Cox, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, March 11, 2008.

oops.

Also from that article:

"On that bright spring afternoon [April 28 2004], the five members of the SEC met in a basement hearing room to consider an urgent plea by the big investment banks. They wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars...."

That decision allowed Wall Street's main brokerage firms to ramp up leverage ratios exceeding 30 to 1. The consequences of that decision (and many other factors) were laid bare in the failure of Lehman and Bear and near failure of every other major brokerage firm. 

Lessons learned? Not in the least. 

#globalfinancialcrisis
#bankcapital
#basel3

Are we witnessing the seedlings of another 2023 banking crisis?

As always, comments and color appreciated. 

In dueling news stories, two more banks disclosed possibly fraudulent loans causing bank shares to drop sharply yesterday (though recovered somewhat today).
 
The story emerged from a lawsuit Western Alliance Bank (WAL) filed in August against one of their CRE borrowers. Another lender exposed to the same borrower– Zions Bank (ZION) -  followed up with their own investigation and announced in an 8K yesterday that they were writing off 100% of their $60M loan. 

In response to Zions' filing, WAL filed an 8K today and claimed that they were FULLY secured by collateral and personal guarantees. I find it odd, to put it mildly, that the exposure to the same borrower group would lead to vastly different conclusions – 100% loss vs 0% loss. Apparently both ZION and WAL had personal guarantees. Perhaps the collateral and loan structure were different? 

Given that WAL ominously noted in their filing that the borrower failed “to provide collateral loans in first position” I find it hard to believe that the loan is still fully covered by assets. That breach of loan terms sounds serious enough to warrant at least a cautionary recognition of losses. 

For their part, ZION noted similarly serious concerns in their 8K: “apparent misrepresentations and contractual defaults by the Borrowers and Obligors and other irregularities with respect to the Loans and collateral.”

Please be aware: Lest you think the issue is limited to WAL and ZION, note the following from ZION’s 8K: “legal actions initiated by several banks and other lenders.” Conclusion: At least 2 other lenders, including one bank, need to fess up.

Ed Note: the borrower entity is named Cantor Group, but according to Cantor Fitz, they are unrelated.

You may remember WAL as having exposure to First Brands (FBG). As I reported in my FBG article, WAL provided leverage to Jefferies’ Point Bonita vehicle, which had 20% exposure to FBG inventory financing. In the latter case WAL didn’t disclose the amount of the exposure or potential losses. As WAL provided leveraged debt to Point Bonita as well as other Leucadia Asset Management funds (Point Bonita's parent fund), it’s not clear at all what their exposure is or the risk. 

Perhaps in light of this latest news we will see more transparency from WAL.  

Liquidity Update

With headlines redolent of 2023, it’s important to consider liquidity. According to FDIC call reports, WAL has $20B of uninsured deposits (out of total deposits of $72B and $86B in assets) while ZION reports $33B in uninsured deposits (out of $76B total deposits and $88B in assets).

It's too soon to talk about a bank run scenario, but as we've seen before these things can spin out of control fairly quickly. 

WAL in their 8K had fairly soothing words about their overall risk position so hopefully....

#bankingcrisis
#fraud
#commercialrealestate

I had the chance to appear on the great William Black Consumer Credit podcast this week to discuss Tricolor and related. With 30 years auto ABS experience Will was the right person to get to the heart of this complex, still evolving story. 

BTW, earlier Will did a podcast with Vervent, the backup servicer for Tricolor (and others). Though this was before Tricolor blew up, they touched on a lot of relevant topics. Check it out. 

Podcast is available on YouTube, Spotify and Apple podcast

Vervent

Tricolor Auto Group, LLC

#autofinance
#securitzation
#bankruptcy
#consumercredit

Consumer Credit and Structured Finance Expert | Credit Risk Management Leader

🚗 Driving Into Default: Tricolor Bankruptcy & Subprime Auto Fallout
A mission-driven lender built to serve underserved borrowers just went straight into Chapter 7.

In my conversation with Rod Dubitsky (“The People’s Economist”), we dig into how warehouse lines, collateral controls, and ABS structures can unravel when confidence breaks, and what this might signal for subprime auto risk more broadly.

▶️ Watch the short clip below — then tell me:

Is this an isolated failure or a systemic warning?

(Full episode link in first comment 👇)

#ConsumerCredit #AutoABS #SubprimeLending #Podcast #StructuredFinance #abs Tricolor Holdings

A Pox on Both Your Houses - Are there More Cockroaches in Private or Public Credit?

Jamie Dimon publicly addressed the Tricolor losses on the JPM earnings call and announced a writeoff of $180M. The amount is not surprising as it was similar to Fifth Third's estimated loss, announced over a month ago. 
 
In light of Tricolor and First Brands, Dimon warned, rather reasonably, that he expected there to be more cockroaches. This led to a mini debate between Dimon and private credit behemoth Blue Owl as to whether public or private credit had more…. cockroaches. 

My short answer is both – they are everywhere. 

Though a large part of First Brands debt was public, about half of their debt was held in private vehicles via flavor of the month Asset Based Lending. In fact we could say FBG's risk was tilted more to the private credit side of their balance sheet. 

Aside from these two cases, I do have objective data from S&P on the credit risk of public Broadly Syndicated Loans (BSLs) vs private Middle Market loans. I previously published this in my BDC article, but in light of the cockroach debate I am resharing it. 

As the chart shows, contrary to Blue Owl’s assertion, the credit ratings of MM/private loans skew far lower than public/BSLs (87% B- and lower vs 30% for public BSLs).  Further, these private credit ratings are informal and not monitored.  

Objectively then, based on ratings alone, for at least this part of the cockroach debates I have to score one for Dimon. 

But as I alluded to in the title, borrowing a line from the immortal bard – “A pox on both your houses” - Risk is everything, everywhere all at once. Further, the intersection between trad banking and private credit means they likely share many, many cockroaches. 

When I see a cockroach in my apartment, I assume there are more but I really don't want to know and don't want to look. Is the same true with lenders and their cockroaches? 

#privatecredit
#cockroachdebate
#leveragedloans
#fraud

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