I am a Managing Partner with over 20 years of experience in the financial sector, where I have applied my PhD in Financial Econometrics and my extensive skills in investment management, financial risk management, and investments to create value and impact for various financial organizations and initiatives. I have a proven track record of leading and advising on strategy, governance, expansion, and innovation in banking, asset management, wealth management, and regulatory roles.

Currently, I serve as a Non-Executive Board Director and Advisor for several companies, where I leverage my analytical, technical, and leadership skills to support their growth and development in the GCC and the Middle East. Previously, I was the Senior Executive Officer (CEO) and Board Director for ADS Investment Solutions LTD, and the Global Head of Asset Management & Wealth Management for ADSS. I have also published two books and multiple papers on market risk and financial markets contagion, and taught master's courses in finance, mathematics, and statistics. My mission is to use my knowledge, expertise, and vision to foster financial innovation and excellence in the industry.

The Long Plateaus of the S&P 500

The long-term history of the S&P 500 is often summarized as “stocks always go up.” The data tells a more nuanced story.

There have been extended periods where equities delivered effectively zero nominal returns. From the late 1920s into the early 1950s, investors experienced more than two decades of stagnation. The 1960s to early 1980s produced another 14-year stretch of flat performance. The period from 2000 to roughly 2013 also resulted in a 13-year cycle with no net progress.

What stands out is not just the magnitude of the bull markets, but the duration of the plateaus. Strong multi-decade advances of +400%, +1200%, and more tend to follow long consolidation phases.

For allocators, this is a reminder that equity investing is cyclical over very long horizons. Entry point, valuation, and regime shifts matter. Passive exposure works over decades, but the path is rarely linear.

Ryan Lemand, PhD

Financial markets practitioner with previous banking, investment management and risk management experience.
Previous Senior Executive Officer (CEO) and Board Director for ADS Investment Solutions LTD in ADGM.
Senior Advisor and Head of Risk Management: Market Risk, Operational Risk, ERM.
Two published books on Market Risk and financial markets' contagion.
Previously taught Masters university courses in Finance, Applied Mathematics and Statistics.
Senior Economist: Macroeconomic reporting and Systemic Risks.
Previous Fund and Portfolio Manager: Several asset classes and strategies, with substantial client facing experience.

Founder and CEO | PhD - Financial Econometrics NO MESSAGES ABOUT UNSOLICITED SERVICES Posts for information only & NOT investment advice

Wayne Jr

This is totally unsual:

Insiders continue buying gold options at $15,000–$20,000 on COMEX for December 2026.

Current price: $4,991.

Over the past days I have received an extraordinary number of messages from friends and acquaintances around the world asking if I am safe, checking on me as missiles cross the skies above Abu Dhabi amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. Many of them end with the same question: When will you leave?

The question itself made me pause. Why would I leave?

I first came to Abu Dhabi in 2008, in the midst of the worst global financial crisis of modern times. At the time, many people were doing the opposite of what I did, they were leaving the UAE. Back then, convincing international professionals to relocate here often required a premium on compensation. The country was still building its reputation as a financial and economic centre, and the decision to come was not always the obvious one.

Over the years that followed, the UAE went through multiple economic cycles, regional tensions, and more than a few black swan events. I stayed through all of them. I moved from the government sector into the private sector, built businesses, and watched the country transform itself at a remarkable pace.

More recently, the region entered a very different phase. The UAE experienced an extraordinary economic boom. Professionals from Europe, the United Kingdom, and many other parts of the world began relocating here in large numbers, often accepting lower compensation than they had abroad in exchange for something that had become increasingly rare elsewhere: stability, opportunity, and a sense of long-term direction.

Then another black swan arrived.

For the first time, missiles are flying over the UAE. For nearly two weeks now, the unthinkable has become reality, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the exceptional defensive capabilities of the UAE’s armed forces, which have successfully intercepted incoming threats and protected civilian areas, witnessing missiles in the sky and hearing explosions above our heads is undeniably unsettling. It is natural that some people have decided to leave. War introduces a level of uncertainty that few people are prepared to accept.

Yet I have stayed.

For me, the UAE was never simply one option among many places to live or work. It became home. And home is not something one abandons when circumstances become difficult only to return when prosperity resumes. That would feel deeply hypocritical.

I chose the UAE. I built my life and my work here. And with that choice comes a simple principle: to remain not only in times of growth and success, but also in moments of uncertainty.

Periods like this inevitably force reflection. When the world suddenly feels fragile, one is reminded how short life can be, and how quickly circumstances can change. But they also remind us of something else: the places we choose, the communities we build, and the values we live by only truly matter when they are tested.

For better or for worse, this is home. And home is where I stay.

The Empty Boat Theory

More than two thousand years ago, the Chinese philosopher Zhuangzi described a simple scene that still explains much of human behavior today.

Imagine you are crossing a river in a small boat when another boat suddenly crashes into yours. Your first reaction would likely be anger. You assume someone carelessly steered into you and the mind quickly moves toward blame. But when you look up, you discover something unexpected: the boat is empty.

The collision still happened and the impact is real. Yet the anger disappears because there is no one to blame. This idea sits at the heart of what is often called the Empty Boat Theory.

Zhuangzi’s insight is uncomfortable but powerful: much of the harm we feel in life is not personal. Much of it is projection. Every day our lives intersect with people carrying pressures and battles we cannot see. Their actions often reflect their own storms rather than anything about our worth.

The human brain dislikes uncertainty. When something ambiguous happens it fills the gap with a story, and those stories tend to be negative. That survival instinct once helped humans assume danger quickly, and the same mental software still runs today.

Think about modern life. Someone does not respond to your email. A driver cuts you off in traffic. Someone unfollows you online. The brain immediately invents intent: disrespect, rejection or hostility. Yet the reality is often simpler. People are busy, tired or distracted. In many cases, the boat is simply empty.

Zhuangzi’s point was simple: we suffer more from the story in our minds than from the event itself. The impact may be real, but interpretation determines the wound.

Much of our suffering is quietly scripted by four forces: ego, assumption, projection and narrative. They turn neutral events into personal attacks that replay in our minds for years, often over boats that were empty from the start.

There is also another truth. To the rest of the world, you are a boat as well. Your bad mood, a delayed reply or a short tone may lead someone else to build a story about you, even though you may simply be tired or distracted.

We are all boats drifting through each other’s rivers. Sometimes we bump into one another and sometimes we collide. Rarely do we intend harm, yet misunderstandings happen constantly.

The strongest people are not the loudest. They pause before reacting and question their first interpretation. They ask one simple question: “Is this boat empty?”

That question alone can save years of bitterness.

Emotional mastery is not control. It is awareness. When we stop personalizing everything, energy returns, focus sharpens and peace grows.

So the next time anger rises, picture the river and the boat. Look inside before reacting.

You may find there is no enemy there at all, only empty space and the opportunity to remain calm.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is collapsing

Let me be very clear, the current energy shock is much worse than 1973's. Back in 1973, only 8% of world supply of oil and gas was affected, today it is close to 20%. This is exactly why when SPR release of 400 million barrels was announced by the IEA, this did not even move oil prices an inch!

This is the biggest energy shock in history and energy prices have not even began to price it.

The latest shipping data shows that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt for ships not aligned with Iran’s regime.

The chart illustrates a dramatic decline in both inbound and outbound vessels since late February. Ship counts that were previously approaching 100 vessels per day have dropped to only a handful by early March.

This matters because the Strait of Hormuz is the most critical oil chokepoint in the global economy. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this narrow corridor between Iran and Oman. Any disruption here immediately reverberates through energy markets, insurance premiums, shipping costs, and global trade flows.

While oil markets initially focused on price spikes, the shipping collapse suggests something deeper: a physical disruption of energy logistics rather than a simple risk premium in prices.

If this situation persists, the consequences extend well beyond oil. Supply chains, LNG flows, and refined product shipments across Asia and Europe would all face increasing pressure.

Markets may be pricing volatility, but the real story is the fragility of the infrastructure that moves energy around the world.

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Debt vs. GDP

The chart compares total U.S. federal debt to nominal GDP.

Federal debt has increased at a materially faster rate than GDP, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic response.

The debt-to-GDP ratio has structurally shifted higher, reflecting:

- Countercyclical fiscal expansion
- Structural deficits
- Rising entitlement spending
- Interest expense growth as rates normalize

The sustainability of this trajectory depends on three variables:

1. Nominal GDP growth relative to average interest cost
2. Primary deficit levels
3. Market demand for Treasury issuance

If nominal growth remains above the effective interest rate, debt stabilization is possible. If not, debt dynamics deteriorate mechanically.

The data do not imply imminent crisis, but they do indicate a long-term fiscal imbalance that will require either higher growth, lower spending, higher taxation, or some combination thereof.

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Glen Ho

One of the most consistent features of the current bull market in U.S. equities has been repeated corrections back toward the medium-term trend.

The chart above shows the weekly performance of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) together with its 20-week moving average. Over the past several years, the market has experienced multiple pullbacks that temporarily broke momentum before the broader uptrend resumed.

These episodes occurred in 2018, during the pandemic shock in 2020, in the tightening cycle of 2022, and again during several volatility spikes in 2023 and 2025.

Each time, the pattern was similar. Markets rallied strongly, valuations expanded, positioning became increasingly optimistic, and then a correction brought prices back closer to the underlying trend.

The current decline is therefore occurring in a context that investors have seen repeatedly during this cycle. While every correction has its own catalyst, the broader structure of the market has remained one of periodic resets within an overall upward trend.

The key question now is whether the latest pullback simply becomes another technical reset, or whether macroeconomic conditions force a deeper repricing of risk assets.

Source: Barchart

The United Arab Emirates has become one of the most important global hubs in the gold trade.

According to OEC World data, the UAE ranked as the second largest gold exporter globally in 2024, behind Switzerland and ahead of traditional exporters such as Hong Kong, Australia, and South Africa.

This reflects the UAE’s role as a major trading and refining hub rather than a mining jurisdiction. Gold flows into the country from producing regions across Africa, Central Asia, and elsewhere before being refined, traded, and re-exported to global markets.

Dubai in particular has positioned itself as a central marketplace for physical gold, supported by its logistics infrastructure, free zones, and financial ecosystem. As global demand for gold continues to grow, especially from central banks and emerging markets, the UAE’s role in the global bullion supply chain is likely to remain significant.

Source: OEC World

Foreign investors are pulling money out of Asian emerging markets at a pace rarely seen before. According to Bloomberg data, $14.2 billion was withdrawn from Asian EM equities (excluding China) in a single week, the largest outflow since at least 2009.

This wave of selling comes as markets reassess the economic consequences of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. What initially looked like a contained geopolitical event is now increasingly being priced as a prolonged energy supply shock that could combine slower growth with renewed inflation pressures.

Asian markets have been particularly vulnerable. Many of the region’s most liquid equity markets such as South Korea and Taiwan had rallied strongly over the past two years on the back of global demand for artificial-intelligence semiconductors. With valuations elevated and global risk appetite deteriorating, foreign investors have moved quickly to reduce exposure.

Volatility has surged across the region. Equity markets in Asia dropped sharply at the start of the week, with some exchanges experiencing the largest declines since April, while trading volumes spiked as investors rushed to de-risk portfolios.

The reason Asia reacts so violently to Middle East tensions is structural.

A very large share of the region’s oil and liquefied natural gas imports originates in the Gulf, with much of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most strategically sensitive energy chokepoints in the world.

Countries such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are among the world’s largest energy importers. Many rely heavily on Gulf crude and LNG to power their industrial sectors and electricity grids. When oil prices spike, the economic impact is therefore immediate: higher production costs, rising inflation, and pressure on trade balances.

With crude prices surging and Brent experiencing its largest intraday swing in nearly six years, investors are increasingly concerned that the shock could turn stagflationary, squeezing growth while pushing energy costs higher.

That combination explains why global capital is rapidly exiting Asian equities. In a world where energy security suddenly becomes uncertain, Asia sits at the most exposed end of the global supply chain.

Could this "explain" the motives behind the war the US is waging in the Middle East at the moment?

Source: Bloomberg

Global equity markets have erased roughly $6 trillion in market capitalization in recent weeks, according to Bloomberg data tracking the value of listed companies worldwide.

The chart shows that global market cap had been climbing steadily through late 2025 and into early 2026, reaching record territory before the recent pullback began in February.

Several forces appear to be converging at the same time.

First, geopolitical tensions have increased materially in recent weeks, which tends to trigger a broad reduction in risk exposure across global portfolios. Second, interest rates remain structurally elevated compared to the previous decade, which reduces the present value of future earnings and weighs on equity valuations. Third, positioning had become increasingly crowded after a long rally, leaving markets vulnerable to rapid de-risking once volatility returned.

What is important to understand is that global market capitalization is an aggregate measure. When trillions disappear from this metric, it does not necessarily mean that fundamentals changed overnight. More often it reflects a rapid repricing of risk, liquidity, and investor expectations.

Periods like this tend to remind investors that markets do not move in straight lines. Even within long structural bull markets, sharp valuation resets can occur when uncertainty rises.

Source: Bloomberg

This weekend’s post is about regret.

Regret is not loud. It does not shout like anger or erupt like grief. It is quieter than that—the kind of pain that settles into your bones in silence. It visits when you finally lie down at night, when the noise fades and distractions disappear. In those moments, regret can make bedtime feel worse than living hell.

Over the years, I’ve come to believe there are several types of regret. From my own experience, I would place them roughly in the following order.

The regret of missing out.  
This happens when opportunity appears, but fear convinces us to step aside. We hesitate because it seems risky, uncomfortable, or not right for us. Later, we watch it unfold into something extraordinary for someone else. Ironically, this type of regret often pushes us to overcompensate. After missing one chance, we rush into the next—driven more by fear of missing out again than sound judgment. More often than not, that second choice proves wrong.

The regret of giving.  
This is one I know well. It occurs when you give to someone with sincerity and effort, and the gesture is barely reciprocated. I was raised in a home where generosity was part of life—never calculated or rationed. And I don’t mean material things, which are easiest to give, but time, presence, consistency, advice, reassurance, and safety.

When that kind of giving meets with imbalanced reciprocation, the result is regret. The one who doesn’t reciprocate may have excuses, but the feeling remains. What often follows is a cycle: burned once, we grow guarded with the next person. We make them pay a bill they never incurred, fearing a repeat of the same hurt. Eventually, we see the pattern, adjust, and yet somehow it returns in different forms.

The regret of leaving.  
This one can be especially harsh. It strikes when we walk away from something imperfect, convinced something better awaits elsewhere. We leave what we have in pursuit of what might be ahead—and sometimes what lies ahead is worse. As the saying goes, one bird in the hand is worth two in the tree. In chasing the two, we lose the one we had, and the others vanish too. I’ve seen this often; in my case, it happened in investment management more than once, though thankfully not in relationships.

In the end, regret follows a simple rule. It rarely comes from things we tried and failed at. More often, it grows out of hesitation, silence, imbalance, or the belief there will always be more time.

And perhaps that is the real lesson. Life rarely punishes honest attempts—but it can be remarkably unforgiving toward hesitation.

Asia remains the region most exposed to energy flows from the Middle East.

Bloomberg data shows that the overwhelming majority of crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian markets. A similarly large share of LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE also flows toward Asia rather than Europe or other regions.

This concentration highlights the strategic importance of Middle Eastern energy routes for Asian economies such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India, which rely heavily on imported hydrocarbons to support industrial activity and power generation.

As geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East, the stability of these shipping routes becomes a critical factor for global energy markets. Any disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz could therefore have immediate implications not only for oil and gas prices, but also for economic activity across much of Asia.

Source: Bloomberg

Food inflation is becoming as important as energy inflation

For much of the past two decades, energy prices have been the dominant driver of global inflation shocks. That dynamic is beginning to change.

The chart compares the contribution of food and beverages versus fuels and utilities to headline inflation over time. Historically, energy spikes have produced the largest swings. However, food inflation has increasingly moved in tandem and, in some periods, exceeded the contribution from energy.

This shift has important macroeconomic implications.

Food prices are far more politically sensitive than energy costs because they directly affect household consumption across income levels. In emerging markets especially, food represents a significantly larger share of consumer spending.

As a result, inflation driven by food can create stronger social and policy responses than energy-led inflation alone.

With geopolitical tensions affecting shipping lanes, fertilizer markets, and agricultural logistics, the risk is that supply disruptions spill over from energy into food systems.

Inflation shocks rarely remain isolated. Energy disruptions often propagate through the global economy in unexpected ways.

Source: Bloomberg

Currency options suggest the euro rally may be losing momentum

The foreign exchange market is beginning to signal a potential reversal in the euro’s recent strength.

The chart compares the euro’s spot price against one-year euro-dollar risk reversals, a key options metric that reflects investor demand for upside versus downside protection.

While the euro strengthened through much of 2025, the options market is now shifting toward downside protection. Traders are increasingly positioning for the possibility that the euro could revisit levels near $1.14 in the coming months.

Options markets are often considered a forward-looking indicator because they capture how professional investors hedge risks rather than simply how spot prices move.

Several macro factors could drive this shift: diverging monetary policies, slowing European growth, or renewed demand for the US dollar as a geopolitical safe haven.

If current positioning continues, the message from derivatives markets is clear.

The euro’s rally may not be over yet, but investors are increasingly paying for protection against a pullback.

Source: Bloomberg

Equity markets are still taking their cues from oil

Despite the diversification of modern financial markets, oil prices continue to exert a powerful influence on equities.

The chart compares E-mini S&P 500 futures with Brent crude futures, showing how closely the two move together in short-term trading periods. When oil prices rise sharply, equity futures tend to weaken as markets price the economic implications of higher energy costs.

This relationship reflects a simple macro reality.

Oil is not just another commodity. It is an input cost for transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and nearly every industrial process. When oil prices surge, profit margins compress and inflation expectations rise.

For equity investors, this creates a dilemma: higher commodity prices benefit energy producers but simultaneously increase the probability of slower economic growth and tighter financial conditions.

In periods of geopolitical tension, oil often becomes the primary signal guiding cross-asset markets.

The message from markets today is straightforward: investors are watching oil more closely than almost any other indicator, and oil markets have their eyes on the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing war.

Source: Bloomberg

Historical seasonality suggests that February has been one of the weaker months for the S&P 500.

Data going back to 1928 shows that the index has delivered an average return of approximately −0.09% in February, making it the second weakest month of the year after September. The market has risen in February about 53% of the time, which is slightly below the long-term monthly average.

By contrast, months such as July, December, and April have historically delivered stronger average returns and higher probabilities of positive performance.

Seasonality alone never determines market direction, but long-term patterns can influence positioning, particularly for short-term traders and systematic strategies. When seasonal weakness coincides with elevated macro uncertainty or tightening financial conditions, volatility in equity markets can increase.

Source: Bank of America

Strategic oil reserves: who has the buffer?

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, the question of emergency oil supply has returned to the forefront.

The chart highlights government-controlled oil reserves across OECD regions as of late 2025. The Americas hold the largest strategic stockpiles, followed by Asia Oceania, while Europe holds a significant portion in refined petroleum products rather than crude.

These reserves exist for one purpose: to stabilize markets when physical supply disruptions occur. The International Energy Agency coordinates emergency releases among member states during major energy crises.

However, reserves are not equally distributed. Regions most exposed to Middle Eastern energy flows, particularly Asia, rely heavily on maritime supply chains passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

This creates an asymmetric vulnerability. A disruption in Gulf shipping would not affect every region equally, and strategic reserves would become a key tool for governments trying to cushion the economic shock.

In periods of geopolitical stress, markets focus on price. Policymakers focus on something more fundamental: how many days of energy supply they can physically sustain.

Source: Bloomberg

Microsoft just launched Copilot Cowork. 

The engine inside? Anthropic's Claude. Microsoft invested billions in OpenAI then hired their rival to build the future.

Microsoft 365 has 400 million users!

I said it months ago and I reiterate it today: OpenAI will be the first to go under.

Interview on Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق earlier today with Nour Amache:

Markets are caught in a geopolitical crossfire. Here is what is actually happening.

Over the past two weeks, equity markets have behaved less like financial instruments and more like real-time political polling machines. On March 9, the S&P 500 opened down nearly 1% with oil briefly touching $120 per barrel. By the close, a single Trump comment sent the Nasdaq surging 1.4%. The next day, those gains evaporated when the White House contradicted its own Energy Secretary over whether a tanker had been escorted through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil then collapsed 12% in a single session. This is not market volatility. This is market schizophrenia.

The bond market is equally unsettled. Rather than the usual flight to Treasuries, yields have risen -- the 10-year climbing back above 4.1% -- as investors price in an inflationary oil shock. Credit spreads have widened across the board, with African dollar bond spreads jumping 17 basis points in a single day according to JPMorgan. The bond market is now torn between near-term inflation fears and the prospect of a demand-destroying recession later in the year.

The current oil shock deserves to be called what it is: the largest energy disruption in history. The 1973 Arab embargo removed roughly 7% of global oil supply and caused prices to quadruple. The Hormuz closure has bottled up approximately 20% of global oil and LNG simultaneously -- nearly three times the 1973 scale, with no spare OPEC capacity accessible behind the closed Strait, and no alternative route for Qatari LNG which supplies a fifth of global gas trade. Iran achieved this not with a naval blockade, but with cheap drones -- enough to cause insurers and shippers to withdraw unilaterally.

The deepest irony is who benefits. Despite losing access to Iranian oil, both Russia and China are the clearest winners. Russia is the world's largest alternative supplier to India and China, and oil prices remain 27% above pre-war levels -- revenue flowing directly into its Ukraine war chest. China entered the crisis with over 100 days of crude stockpiles and is now the only power with real leverage over Tehran, pressing Iran to keep the Strait open while watching the West absorb the military and financial cost.

The Strait of Hormuz is 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. Eleven days of disruption have exposed how fragile the architecture of global energy security truly is.

Make no mistake, it will take at least 2 weeks for tanker traffic to normalize through the Strait of Hormuz when it opens and two months to restart refinery production in full.

Thank you Tabarek Jouini for having me again.

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