My name is not Maverick, but I am a bit of a maverick. 

After graduating from NC State University in December 1998, I started my financial planning practice - what has become Hicks & Associates Wealth Management. 

Joining the industry in February 1999, I saw the last year of the great bull run up close.

I then saw the dot com crisis up close too. 

Going through that crisis, the leaders of the firm which I was then affiliated, assured me, “Don’t worry. This is a once in a career crisis. It’s good to get it behind you in the beginning.”

We survived and I soldiered on.

Then came the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008.

“Don’t worry.” I was told, “This is a once in a career crisis.”

Wait, didn’t you guys say that already?

After this second stock market crisis, the proverbial scales fell from my eyes. I became convinced that financial planning and portfolio management are two distinctly different skill sets. I had one, but not the other.

This is the backstory of how Hicks & Associates Wealth Management has come to specialize in managing the wealth that you’ve spent decades building. 

Who we serve:
→ We serve individuals and families that do not want to see their wealth take the stairs on the way up, and the elevator back down.
→ We serve those who believe a defensive strategy is just as important - sometimes even more important - than an offensive strategy.
→ We serve those who want truly professional, truly active portfolio management.

If you'd like to chat, send me a DM.

Last Sunday, I learned ...
My book is now an "Award Winner"


If you've read my book, you know,
my book was a personal challenge.

I wrote a White Paper in Oct. '23
It was a struggle to be brief.

But if the White Paper was too long ...
no prospect would want to read it.

Since it was a struggle to be brief,
I wondered if I had enough for a book.

Eventually, I just started writing.

Again, I wanted to be brief.
No prospect will read a long book.

I also wanted my book to be an intro.
It is the book I wish I had read ...
at the beginning of my career.

So far, I am encouraged.
Financial nerds like me ... love it.
Financial neophytes have also enjoyed it.

Many have told me that they ...
well, they were surprised.

They were surprised they enjoyed it.
These are folks who don't read finance books.

So, they were reading it to be kind to me ...
But they actually enjoyed it.

Now, it's a Literary Global Book Award winner.

To God alone be the glory.
I am humbled.
Honored.

Wish Pop were here to see it.
Pop always wanted to write a book.

But he never got the chance.
Or he never MADE the chance.

Either way, I wish Pop was still here.
Would love to celebrate with him.
[Ataxia sucks, by the way.]


❓For those of you who've read it, thank you. For those that haven't, did you know there's a $4 Kindle version?

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect

undefined undefined

My book link

PS I cannot comprehend how ANYONE can study the founding of our nation, the Revolutionary War, etc. and 𝙣𝙤𝙩 see the Divine hand of God. 

There are so many instances like this:
- Prevailing winds failing to allow the British Armada (which was immense) from encircling our troops in Brooklyn. 
- Fog descending at just the right time to conceal Washington's retreat

Go back to the French & Indian War, and you'd learn that Washington had multiple bullet punctures in his jacket ... but none ever struck him. 

Devine protection, in my view ... as well as the Native American leaders who were specifically directing their men to fire on Washington!

The list like this is long! 

May God bless this nation, has He clearly has since our founding. May we live up to His blessings and be a bastion of freedom. 
May we reflect His glory. 

Happy Birthday America!


North Carolina State University

College for Financial Planning

Hicks & Associates Wealth Management, LLC

John Locke Foundation

Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc.

Author, Evidence Based Investing (Coming Soon) |
Chief Investment Officer at Hicks & Associates Wealth Management

Author, Evidence-Based Investing | Managing Wealth for the C-Suite

"It's okay to be wrong.
It's NOT okay to stay wrong."


That was my favorite blurb.
That was from David Keller, CMT.

I can't say it was a "take-away",
or a "golden nugget" ...

Mainly because it's our philosophy too.

But, I'll likely adopt that phrase.
It's very succinct and communicates clearly.

[Hope Dave doesn't have it trademarked.]

Ultimately, we don't make predictions.
We follow price and trend.

But ... 
and this is key:
We know we will make mistakes.

We just want those mistakes to be small.

This is something I discuss in my book.
There's a section in my book called:
Portfolio Math.

Keep your loses small.
Survive another day.

Let your winners run 
+ 
Compound those winners.

That math works.

All that said,
I was honored this week.

Tyler Wood, CMT asked me to speak ...
to the CMT Association Mid-Winter Retreat?

I basically told him "no".
This is one smart crowd!
Not sure I have anything to teach this group.

So, Tyler said, 
"You can talk about your book."

Ultimately, we agreed to a panel discussion ...
that'd be appropriate.

Vincent Randazzo, CMT would moderate.
Jeff T. Zipper, CFA, CMT, CFP® and I would discuss:

"How do you use technical analysis to communicate?"

This is a key tenant of my book:
My book is written to help the average American.

I tried really hard.
I wanted to take the complex & the confusing ...

And make it simple.
Make it easy to understand.

So far, I'm really encouraged.
I'm really humbled.

It seems I was able to balance that well.
Financial geeks [like me] enjoy the book.

But, what's really cool:
the average American reader,
the one who would NEVER read a finance book:

Those readers have also told me:
they too REALLY enjoyed it.

[And there's always this look of amazement when they say this. Like, "I can't believe I ACTUALLY enjoyed a finance book." It's actually kinda funny to watch them tell me this.]

Thanks for the invite Tyler.
Thanks for the warm reception CMT gang.


❓ Do you travel well? I do not sleep well in hotels. So I'm hoping to catch up on some sleep this weekend.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Get the 1st chapter free at: 
TheodoreHicks.com

I also manage wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.

Send me a DM to chat.

Teaching Investors to See the Market More Clearly | President, Sierra Alpha Research | Host, Market Misbehavior Podcast

Financial Services Executive

CMT Association

Helping Advisors Manage Risk & Compound Better | Former Chief Market Strategist @ Lowry Research

SVP | Sr. Portfolio Manager | Managing Director | Published Author | Financial Industry Leader | Fifth Third Private Bank | Board of Directors & Secretary/Treasurer- Palm Beach County Sports Commission.

I miss my BMW 550.
It was built for drivers who love to drive.


There's one particular spot I loved.
Durham Freeway, heading south.
Merge onto I-40 West ...

Banked, long entry ramp.
Man I loved that curve.

If no one was in front of me,
and no black & whites behind me ...

I would push that car.
Then as I merged onto I-40
I'd have to slow aggressively.

But ONLY if the conditions were right.
I loved to drive that car.

But I'm not stupid.
And I don't want a ticket.

So, measured risk.
And that spot was a favorite.

And, I'm willing to bet:
You make similar decisions.

You may not push like that.
But I'll bet you alter your driving

Depending on the conditions.
If it's raining heavy ...
If there's snow ...

So, if we alter our driving,
based on the conditions ...

Why wouldn't we do it in our portfolio?

This clip is a little longer.
It clocks in just under 2 minutes.

But there's so many good nuggets in here.
And after yesterday ...

Good things to remember.

If you're getting close to retirement ...
if you're not sure you've got a strategy ...

Just send me a DM: "Let's talk"


❓Wanna guess how many speeding tickets I got in that car?

~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Hard to believe, this may be the last show.
But I know Caroline will be amazing.


Have you ever read The Great Gatsby?
Caroline will be Daisy in the show.

Spiritual Twist Productions is in Garner, NC.
They put a "spiritual twist" on all their shows.

Since I had never read The Great Gatsby,
I listened to it recently on Audible.

I completely, 100% hated it.
Why is that horrible plot a classic?

But I have a vague idea of the spiritual twist,
So, I'm quite confident that the show will be great.

If you are local,
and you need a date for Valentine's week,

Might I suggest STP's The Great Gatsby?
The show will be Feb 11, 12, 13 & 14. 

This might be Caroline's last ...
at least here locally.

I believe the Lord has special plans for her.
I don't believe this will be her last show.

Just might be the last one at STP.
Tickets go on sale January 26th.

https://lnkd.in/esWKmKc7


How does this relate to managing wealth?
Well, The Great Gatsby ... not a client I'd want.

We like serving people we enjoy.
His parties may have been legend.
But I certainly don't think I'd like him.

What about you?

It's not a "resolution" ...
but this is definitely a goal for 2026.


Not sure how many miles I rode in 2025,
but I know it was down from 2024.

That's okay.
Exercise went up.
Didn't miss a single day in 2025.
But cycling - specifically - was down.

Cycling is my favorite form of exercise.
But I've definitely dialed back how often I ride.

Sadly, the #1 reason why ...
If more folks would put down their cell phones ...

Well, then cycling would be safer for sure.

But since I manage risk professionally,
I'm sure gonna manage it recreationally.

So, I manage cycling risk by:
➡️  Typically, I ride with at least 1 other
        📌  There's safety in numbers.
➡️  I try to get out in the country quick
       📌 Far fewer cars
      📌  Fewer cell phone distracted drivers.

Some of these pics are from Lancaster, PA
The horse & buggy give that away.

But look at that open road!
Wonderful cycling.

Lancaster has it's share of hills.
Rolling hills can be fun.

Very friendly folks in Lancaster.
Amish & Mennonite farmers waving as I ride.

Got to see a cemetery from before the revolution!
That's very cool.

These pics were from a trip to Sight 'n Sound.
We will likely return in 2026 too.
This year's show is Joshua.
That's an epic tail.

Sight 'n Sound has a Conservatory.
That's where Caroline wants to go next.

[I can totally see her on that stage!]

Back to that goal I mentioned:
I wanna ride more in 2026.

Planning on doing Cycle NC in October.
Brian Lewis & I are building a team.

We'll ride across North Carolina.
From the Mountains to the Coast.

Send me a DM if you wanna join us.
Maybe 6 or 7 spots left on the team.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Get the 1st chapter free at: 
TheodoreHicks.com

I also manage wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.

Founder/Principal Officer

It appears that the tides might be changing ...
after five long years, it's about time.


There's a cliche in this business ...
actually, that's not true.

There's a LOT of cliches in this business.
But that's besides the point.

One of the cliches is
"A rising tide lifts all boats."

But what is the rising tide?

If you watched our most recent YouTube,
you know the S&P 500 was up ~16% last yr.

But you also know,
the average stock was NOT.

Generally speaking, 
if small companies are outperforming ...

THAT is the rising tide.

This chart I'm showing here, 
it's pretty simple:

Take one security
Divide it by another.

The chart then POINTS out an answer.
It points to the stronger of the two.

So this is Small Company stocks (IWM),
divided by Large Company stocks (SPY).

You can see that the chart was pointing south.
It was pointing to the denominator, SPY.

In English:
for the last 5 years, large caps have out-performed.

That is NOT a robust bull market.

But see that circle in the bottom right?

That's a trendline break.
It's still tentative at the moment.

But it's a very welcome sign.
Means we might have a leadership change.

Small companies may be taking the lead.
And that's the tide we want.

It technically won't lift all boats.
But it'd sure lift more than the Mag 7.

I'm heading to Tampa this morning.
The CMT Association asked me to be on a panel.

Jeff T. Zipper, CFA, CMT, CFP® and I will be chatting ...
Vincent Randazzo, CMT will be moderating.

I'm sure I'll bring up my book.
Turns out Jeff Zipper wrote one too ... 
'Cuz what I'll be reading on the plane ride south.


❓ I tried to tie in a lesson from 1776 or the George Washington biography I'm now thoroughly enjoying. But couldn't think of the analogy. Oh well. 

~~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

If the weather is warm enough ...
wanna guess what I'm planning today?


Teddy wants me to take him fishing.
I wanna get in a bike ride.

Caroline & mom are at rehearsals.
Caroline's big show is next month.

Tickets should go on sale soon.
She is the female lead.
So excited for her!

Soccer season will start again soon.
That's why I had a hard time riding last year.

In 2026, I will have to do a better job ..
will have to get out early.

Sunrise cycling is some of the best.
These 3 pics are from Kentucky.

After we saw Noah at Sight & Sound,
There was only one place to logically go ...

To visit The Ark Encounter, of course.
If you haven't visited The Ark Encounter ...

You should.
Totally worth it.

Especially if you can actually spend time.
Read the history & the interpretation
If you are a skeptic of the flood,
Fine, make your own conclusion.

But you know me,
I like to see the evidence.

And the evidence FOR the flood ...
it's quite overwhelming actually.

Well, it's about time!


If you watched my recent YouTube,
the January Market & Economic Update,

You likely recall that the average stock,
last year UNDER-PERFORMED
the average Money Market
at least in 2025.

In order for the bull market to be robust,
we needed to see this ...

And it finally happened!

Last week, we had the breakout.
You can read the full article below.

It's also at our website.


❓ What did you do this past weekend?


~~~~
We manage wealth for C-Suite Executives. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.

Want a second opinion, let's chat.
Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

"This is a once-in-a-career crisis, Ted."
But I heard that about two different crises!


My dad was a historian.
As for me, I kinda hated history.

Especially in High School.
Truth is, I had bad teachers.
Today, I find history fascinating.

But I didn't always feel that way.

The fact is it took a 2nd market crisis,
and a second use of that cliche,

"This is a once-in-a-career-crisis, Ted."

YOU CAN'T SAY THAT MORE THAN ONCE.

The reality is that:
- I was doing everything right.
- I was doing all they told me to do.

BUT IT DIDN'T WORK.

So, I started studying.
I started searching myself.

And what did I find?

What is so often taught in this business
➡️ is flat out wrong.
➡️ it fails you right when you need it.

That's why I do what I do.
That why I do it the way I do it.

This is a short clip from a podcast.
David Keller, CMT hosts it.

The Market Misbehavior podcast.
The link to the full episode is in the comment section.

Dave and I had a great chat.
Hope you enjoy it.

As an aside,
if you're getting close to retirement,
if you know you need to question your approach,

Just send me a DM, "Let's chat".
Happy to see if we can be of service.


❓ What's your favorite period of history?

~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Just John Wayne & lots of OJ.


I'm a little under the weather. 
Seems to be a minor cold.

But I don't wanna infect anyone at the office.
So I rescheduled face-to-face meetings.
And quarantined myself.

When I'm not feeling well,
I'm drinking lots of OJ 
lots of Vitamin C.

And hanging out with John Wayne.
Watched In Harm's Way and
Hatari

Two I had never seen before.

Hopefully, I'll be a bit closer to full strength later today.

For now, just know:
➡️ Be wise with your wealth.
➡️ Follow your investment rules. 
➡️ Always (ALWAYS!) manage your risk.


❓ What's your favorite John Wayne movie.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Get the 1st chapter free at: 
TheodoreHicks.com

I also manage wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.

Send me a DM to chat. ... Just might not respond 'til Monday.

Made it to 65.


Caroline got me The Wingmen for Christmas.
Finished it yesterday.
#65 for 2025

That's the most I've ever read.
For the purists amongst you,
less than half were Audibles.

Ever since reading Chernow's Grant,
I've been planning on reading Washington.

But, I figured I should read 1776 first.
McCullough's 1776 book was "short" ...
when compared to Chernow's epics.

Chernow's Washington is 817 pages.
That'll take me a few weeks.
Maybe a few months.

I'll bet I'll thoroughly enjoy it.

By the numbers:
- 33 Books
- 32 Audible
- 65 in Total
- 4 Biographies
- 6 Faith-Based books
- 4 Economics Related
- 8 Stock Market Related
- 25 works of fiction (most via Audible)
- 14 Business / Marketing / Leadership books

I don't watch a lotta television.
I only watch post-season sports ...
and then, ONLY if "my" team is playing.

So, I read a lot.
That's how you learn.

I've learned a lot this year.
I still have a lot to learn.


❓ Any particular books you're planning on reading in the New Year?
~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Get the 1st chapter free at: 
TheodoreHicks.com

I also manage wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.

Send me a DM to chat.

The S&P 500 was up ~16% in 2025.
But what about the average stock?


If we use the Value-Line Geometric Average,
that's a pretty decent proxy,
for the average stock ...

The Value-Line Geometric Average, 
was NOT up 16% last year.

One glance at the 200-day moving average ...
that is a pretty flat trendline!

What does this tell us?
The average stock, in 2025
UNDER-PERFORMED a decent Money Market.

But, what does this mean for 2026?

Well, we do not make predictions,
but that flat trend does offer some good news.

If you want to watch the full video,
you can find it on our YouTube channel.

If you check it out, 
be sure to subscribe.

I will post at least one video per month.


❓ You got any predictions about 2026?

~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Economic uncertainty is almost always a given.
Investment decisions should not be ...


Yesterday, a prospective client asked about my PRODUCT.
"It's not about a PRODUCT; I don't have a PRODUCT.
I have a PROCESS."

She is used to people pushing products.

"Buy this financial product ... it cures everything."
Modern day Snake Oil Salesmen.

I told her, 
"That ain't me."

But if you've been with me here for a while,
you know I'm all about a process.

No one is perfect.
Every investment decision won't work out.

➡️ That's okay.
So long as your process is defined.

If your process is well defined, 
you will know in advance, 
how to ...

📌 How to limit losses.
📌 How to step on the brakes.
📌 How to slam on the accelerator.

This one chart, that I'm showing here,
this one chart is giving me some confidence.

If you look closely at the chart, 
notice the dates.

On the Left ...
November 6th - the day AFTER the election
November 11th - the post election squat began
November 29th - the high that lasted 9 months

Then on the Right ...
Nov. 20 - more than a year later, RSP is negative.

This chart is for the equal-weight S&P 500.
The typical S&P 500 is tilted.
It stresses the big boys.

This equal-weight version, RSP,
it gives equal billing to all 500 stocks.

And it shows how challenging it's been ...
unless you've been concentrated in AI
or just the cap-weighted S&P 500.

But, now, look at the far right.
The price action has gotten very tight!

Remember, stock charts do not predict ...
They suggest.

This, to me, suggests good news.
A breakout is quite possible ...
to new all-time highs.

I can also show you that since 10/1,
we've seen a rotation.

Since 10/1:
- The Mag 7 is up 1.56
- The S&P (cap-weighted) is up 1.84%
- The Equal Weight S&P (RSP) is up 1.85%
- The Russell 2000 (small companies) are up 3.89%

The bull market is broadening out.
The big boys are starting to lag.
Small guys are taking the lead.
That's what I see.

This Friday (or next Monday) I'll do a deeper dive.
I'll publish our monthly Market & Economic update.
As always, we will publish it to YouTube.

PS Full disclosure ...
nothing in this business is certain.
That was just a hook ... hope it worked.


❓What are you doing to celebrate New Year's? 

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Get the 1st chapter free at: 
TheodoreHicks.com

I also manage wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.

Send me a DM with "Notify" to be notified of when the updated market & economic analysis video is posted.

The Navy SEALs are not always aggressive men.


Unfortunately, you may have been brainwashed.
But you are not alone.

The reality:
My industry has brainwashed a lot of folks.

"I'm getting close to retirement.
So, I need to be more conservative."

Says who?

Unfortunately, the vast majority.
Well the vast majority are not always right.

I walk you through this in my book.
If you haven't gotten a copy,
there's a $4 version.

The hardcover book is very nice, IMO.
But you are free to get the $4 Kindle version.

I'm just pleased that so many folks are reading it.
AND actually enjoying the book!

Anyway, here's the point:

Question conventional wisdom.
Question the talking points.
Questions everything.

When someone says:
"You should be more conservative."

That is code language.

It usually means, 
"You should own more bonds."

Hogwash.

The problem:
Too many operate with false assumptions.

"You should own more bonds."
That dates back to Harry Markowitz.

Yes, he won a Nobel prize for a PhD dissertation.
It was indeed a ground breaking paper.

BUT IT WAS WRONG.

You do not manage your risk with bonds.
You manage risk by how you manage your wealth.

The reality:
Take risks when it makes sense to take risks.
Decrease risk when the odds are not in your favor.

In the later scenario:
You might even want to AVOID taking risks.

My hat is off to the US Special Forces.
The Navy SEALs.
The Army Green Berets.
The Night Stalkers of SOAR.
Marine Corps Expeditionary Force.

The list is longer than you think.
I know. I am not listing them all.
They are all bad @$$es in my opinion.

But here's the reality:

The Special Forces are NOT always on attack.
They will strike when it's time to strike.
Yes, they take risks.

And I'm one grateful Patriot that they do.
But they take CALCULATED risks.

They don't take blind risks.
And they manage the op actively.

I'm sure they are always mitigating.
They are always trying to mitigate risk.

They want to also accomplish the mission.
But they also want to return home.

Same is true for you.
You want to retire soon.
You want to maintain your lifestyle.

So, don't blindly take risks.

Also, don't increase exposure to bonds ...
And think you are decreasing risk.

Manage risk actively.
If you don't know how:
hire someone who does.

And if they don't talk about managing risk actively,
it's 'cuz they aren't.


❓ Did you know I called the USMC recruiting station when I was in college? I wanted to fly the AV-8. 

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Every year, we get the same question: 
"Will we see a recession?"


Generally speaking, we don't issue predictions.
Wall Street is full of Nostradamuses
[Or is it Nostradamasi?]

But that doesn't stop clients from asking:
"Will we see a recession this year?"

While we follow price action,
we let the stock & bond market be our guide.

Remember, trading costs are $0.
So, we believe in being truly active.

In our view, there's just no reason not to be.
So, one of the cliches that we cling to:

"We hold strong opinions, weakly held."

In other words,
we are quite comfortable changing our minds.

When you issue a prediction,
you can get anchored to that prediction.

Your pride is at stake.

We check our pride at the door.
We follow price.

And, most importantly,
we follow our investment management process.

Said differently,
we follow our rules.

That said, I still look at economic data.

To some extent,
I look because I'm curious.
I look b/c it creates a platform for engagement.

I've been invited to give economic presentations.
I enjoy giving my economic views.

But they are not predictions.
It's just how I see the data ... today.

If the data changes, 
or you show me another way to view it,
I may change my mind - my pride isn't at stake.

So, for now,
these two points are the key.

These two points are the reason why:
I do not think we'll see a recession in the near term.

Feel free to change my mind.
I value a good, respectful debate.


How do you see the data?
PS Is it Nostradamuses or Nostradamusi?


~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Ain't gonna lie, I'm not a fan of that blue. 
But it was kinda cool to park next to this bird.


This was from a couple of years ago.
Actually, it was likely from 2015.

If you didn't know,
I got my Private Pilot license in 2014.

I love aviation.
But, if you've been to my office ...

Then you probably picked up on that.
Aviation art in every room.

But I also love history.
So, it's historical aviation military art.

Anyway, back in 2014 or 2015,
I flew to Charlotte to meet with a client.

I taxied and parked the plane.
No big deal.

Went in to the FBO conference room.
Fired up my laptop.

The clients walked in a few minutes later.
"Did you see that airplane?"

Honestly, I missed it.
Was focusing on being a pilot.

➡️ Safety first.

When you learn to fly, 
instructors INTENTIONALLY distract you.

At least they try.

As we're coming in to land,
"Hey look at that ..."

Don't think I ever fell for it.
I was focused on flying the plane.

But they are trying to distract you.
They're trying to teach you:

➡️ Stay focused.

And there's the lesson.
Stay focused:

Focus on YOUR discipline.
Focus on YOUR rules.

Don't get distracted by someone else.
Don't get distracted by another's process.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't learn from others.
Just don't let them take you off your game.

You can adapt your game,
you can adapt your rules,

But you must have rules.
You must have a process.

Or, to return to the analogy:
You should have a checklist.

That's how you manage wealth.
Follow your investment management process.

And don't get distracted.
Stay focused.
Disciplined.


❓ Assuming you figured out who's plane this is, how long did it take you to figure it out.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

You need to have a SERIOUS talk with your grocer.
Your deficit with them is HUGE.


Yesterday, I was asked to speak to a group.
The event isn't 'til mid-February.

But as I quickly contemplated the title,
of a talk I'll give a month from now,
I took a look at the latest YouTube.

So, I rewatched my January YouTube 
It was a Market & Economic Update.

I reviewed the latest GDP stat.
In my view, the GDP math is bad math.

In short ...
Net Exports is part of the calculation.

That's idiotic in my view.
Take a look at the short clip.

You can check out the full video if you'd like.
It's on our YouTube channel.

All the cool kids have already subscribed.
But we'll let you in too. 


❓ You working on MLK day? Looks like I'll be cheering on T3 in a soccer tourney. He was asked to step in & mind the nets for another team.

~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families.
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Two penalty kicks yesterday. 
Clean sheet on Saturday.  


One more game this a.m.  
Man it’s cold. 

Think I’ll be 29 at kickoff. 
That’s cold. 

Coach has been rotating keepers. 
I reckon that’s the idea
That’s a Showcase

At least I think. 
It’s not a tournament. 

The team didn’t qualify for it. 
So they go to a Showcase. 

Reckon it’s an opportunity
Opportunity to look for improvement 

Teddy started the 1st game. 
Coach subbed him 10 minutes into the 2nd half. 

Teddy had a clean sheet. 

Game 2
Teddy played the 2nd half. 

We were down 2-1 at the half. 
Apparently we fouled twice,
In the box. 

So Teddy had to face two PKs. 

First one - was just well placed. 
Nothing he coulda done. 

Second one - he had a great dive. 
Got a hand on it. 

But it went in. 
Still a great dive. 

They scored one more late. 
That one was a scrum. 

Overall he’s played great. 
Despite sub-freezing temps. 

After the game yesterday,
We went to see the fishies. 



❓Ever been to the Georgia Aquarium?

~~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.

I also lead a team that manages money for individuals and families. 
We are vigilant investors so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Do you feel a divergence in the force?
[Yeah, I know. Yoda said "disturbance", not "divergence".]


For months,
or has it been years?

We've been talking about a divergence.
This divergence was a warning.

It was never a signal.
It was only just a warning.

But these divergence warnings are legit.
Ever see a sign that read:

"Speed is Monitored by Radar"

You don't stop driving.
But you might start paying more attention.

Well, for a long time, 
The Magnificent 7 has lead.

The S&P 500 was positive in 2025.
But the average stock did NOT participate.

Most stocks under-performed a money market.
That's changing.

This chart shows four ETFs.
It shows their YTD performance (thru 1/14).

From the bottom up ...

MAGS
A Magnificent 7 ETF is NEGATIVE 0.40%.

SPY
The Cap-Weighted S&P 500 ETF is +1.29%

VO
A Mid-Cap ETF is +2.95%
[mid-cap is medium sized companies]

RSP
The Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF is +3.47%

IWM
The Russell 2000 ETF is +6.74%
[this is small companies]

If you haven't watched my January Market Update,
1st of all - why?!
(just kidding)

Seriously - go watch it on YouTube.
You'll see / hear what I said.

We cannot be in a healthy robust bull market ...
IF THE AVERAGE STOCK IS NOT PARTICIPATING.

Yes, most stocks recovered last year.
We had the Tariff Tantrum.
But most recovered.

But they did NOT move into new high ground.

You cannot have a bull market if stocks are not moving into new high ground.

So, what can we conclude from this chart?

IWM, RSP, VO
All tell us the same thing ...

The average stock is now participating.

The fact that the MAGS is negative ...
Money is rotating away from the big dogs.

That's healthy.
If the bull market is really healthy ...

Small companies typically lead.
So far, it appears they've taken that lead.

What does this mean?
What should you do?

Well, if you don't know, feel free to ask.
Just send me a DM with "Small Caps Lead?"
And we'll set up a time to chat.


❓ Are we getting snow this weekend?


~~~~
I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing.
Check it out here: https://a.co/d/35xRdre

I also lead a team that manages wealth.
We serve individuals and families. 
We are vigilant so you don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to connect.

Wanna guess what I'm doing this weekend?


T3 signed up for a goalkeeping winter clinic.
One of the coaches pulled him aside.

This Coach leads an NPL team.
That's National Premier League.

Sounds fancy.

It's just one level up.
Teddy is on a "Classic" team.

Regardless, Coach said he liked what he saw.
Asked Teddy to guest play for him.

So T3 is playing in a "Showcase".
I'll be on the sidelines.

I'll also be hoping someone brings a mobile heater.

H/T to Lisa Klein for showing me how to create a "Plushie" using ChatGPT. The Plushie I had it create of Caroline was cute. But then I saw you can ask it to create a bobble head. 

That's an hour of my life I'll never get back.
But all my kids love the bobble heads I created of them.


❓ Is it okay to bring a portable heater to a soccer game?

~~~~
I lead a team that manages wealth for others. 
We are vigilant investors.
You don't have to be.
Want a second opinion, let's chat.

Find my Featured section to check out my latest book, "Evidence-Based Investing".

Business Coach + Process Strategist | Lead Magnet Expert | Supporting online service providers simplify & scale | Turning big goals into doable steps | Mom of 2 teens 💕 FREE Lead Magnet Checklist ⬇️

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