Simon Ree's Linkedin Analytics

During my recent trip to the UK, I hade the good fortune to visit my good friend and fellow trader Andrew Pancholi. We enjoyed a wide-ranging conversation on markets, cycles, trading, geopolitics, astrophysics and…whisky! And I got to see where all the market timing magic happens :)

The Fed meets today. No one expects a rate cut, but Powell’s comments will be key. The market is pricing: - 2 cuts in the next 6 months - 4 cuts in the next 12 months That seems at odds with the Fed’s repeated insistence that they’re in no rush. Powell is caught between: - A market desperate for cuts - Political pressure (especially with Trump’s recent remarks) - Optics of staying independent Any deviation from the "four cuts in 12 months that markets are pricing could result in disappointment.

From Trend to Turmoil - How to Trade This Market Now The market’s personality has changed...and your strategy should too. In today’s video, I break down: - Why the market has shifted from feeling like a predictable soccer match… to a full-blown convulsion - How to adapt to mean reversion dynamics in this volatile environment - Why trend-following isn’t the go-to strategy right now - and what to do instead - How to navigate elevated volatility using spread-based strategies that thrive on overstretched moves  If you're still trading like it’s 2024, it’s time to update your playbook. Watch now to learn how.

Breaking things for fun and profit! So, they jacked up tariffs to 145%, watched global trade stumble, then graciously dialed them back to 30%. Markets cheered, and we're all supposed to feel like winners. It's like smashing your own car window, taping it back up with duct tape, and receiving applause for your ingenious work. The playbook: Step 1: Impose crippling tariffs Step 2: Watch supply chains blow up and prices soar Step 3: Realise you've broken something and reach for some super glue Step 4: Celebrate the "fix" and market uptick It's a masterclass in economic theatre, create the problem then bask in the glory of partially fixing it. Meanwhile, business and consumers around the world navigate the whiplash, while underlying issues remain unsolved...are tariffs really going to replace income tax and/or fix the Federal deficit?

Lest we forget 🫡🙏🏻

The Fed just hit pause. What does that mean for you as an investor in Asia? I was quoted in The Business Times today discussing how this impacts Singaporean stocks and bonds, and what everyday investors might want to think about next. Here’s the bottom line: - Equities may find relief, but not all sectors will benefit equally - For Bonds, the pause takes the pressure off Asian central banks to hike their own rates to keep capital from fleeing to the US. That's a plus for stability - It’s not just about interest rates anymore - Asia lives and breathes global trade. Ongoing trade tensions will impact export-heavy sectors like tech and manufacturing If you're curious to unpack these implications a little more, here’s the piece:

The S&P 500 is +22% from it's April low and is now in the black YTD, in one of the biggest short-term comebacks in market history. It's also now only 4% from its all-time high. This is just the 5th time since WWII the S&P has managed to erase a YTD decline of more than 15%.

Last year, China generated 2x as much electricity as the US, produced 12.6x as much steel and 22x as much cement. China's shipyards accounted for over 50% of the world's output while US production was negligible. In 2023, China produced 30.2 million vehicles compared with 10.6 million made in the US. On the demand side, 26 million vehicles were sold in China, 68% more than the 15.5 million sold in the US. Chinese consumers bought 434 million smartphones, 3x the 144 million bought in the US. China consumes 2x as much meat and 8x as much seafood as the US. There's no guarantee this will go the way Trump assumes it will.

The Most Dangerous Risk in Markets Right Now Isn’t AI, Rates, or Recession—It’s the Attack on the Fed. Last week, news broke that the President has been actively considering the removal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell - a move that has the potential to shake the foundations of U.S. financial markets If you're thinking “just politics,” think again This is about confidence in the system When you threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve, you threaten the very belief that monetary policy is guided by data - not politics. The belief that monetary policy will balance controlling inflation and supporting economic growth forms a bedrock of trust that underpins: - $102 trillion in debt markets - $56 trillion in equity markets Remove it, and you're removing the spine from global financial credibility. This is less about about Powell’s future and more about market perception. Once investors suspect the Fed is nothing more than a political hostage, every rate decision becomes suspect. Even if Powell stays, the uncertainty alone chips away at investor confidence. And that makes the S&P 500’s 20x forward P/E multiple a hard sell. Why should the S&P 500 trade at a valuation premium amid: - Political chaos - Central bank interference - Potential recession risk These are threats to the system that justify discounts, not premiums Markets from 2002–2018 traded on lower valuations, and conditions now arguably warrant greater caution, not exuberance

The "Dollar smile" theory suggests the USD strengthens under two scenarios: - Left side of the smile: USD rises in times of global risk aversion (as a safe haven asset) - Right side of the smile: USD strengthens when the US is outperforming r.o.w. (often with rising US rates or strong domestic demand) The USD typically weakens (middle of the smile) when global growth is stable and synchronized, where capital will flow to higher growth or higher yielding regions Thus US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen roughly 9% YTD, its worst start to a year ever. Meanwhile the S&P 500 is down approx 12% for its 3rd-wrost start to a year in history. So, why is the USD weakening even though markets are clearly "risk off"? 1) Trade War Uncertainty This risk-off environment is driven by US-specific policy decisions, which are expected to weaken the US economy and impose a higher tax on US households. 2) Policy Credibility Trump's public threats to fire Powell raise fears of political capture of monetary policy and loss of faith in US institutions 3) De-dollarization Is quietly continuing. The dollar's share of global FX reserves has fallen to a 30 year low. Investors and central banks are diversifying into gold, reflecting a shift in safe haven preferences 4) Feedback loop with equities Factor in a late-cycle US earnings recession and margin pressure for multinationals and equities have their own problems independent of the dollar. In 2008, the systemic nature of the crisis and massive margin call that ensued meant global investors had nowhere else to turn but the dollar. In 2025 the risk is policy-driven and US-specific rather than systemic. Rather than being seen as a safe harbour this time, the US is at the centre of the storm. The current environment represents regime uncertainty more so than classic risk-off. I don't expect the market is going to calm down while regime uncertainty remains