David Walker's Linkedin Analytics

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has destroyed every investing strategy known to man over the last 60 years 🚨🚨 Source: Barchart

🚘 Tesla is worth 6x Toyota—yet Toyota sells 10x more cars. What exactly is the market pricing in? As of early 2025, Tesla’s market cap sits near $600B—towering over Toyota ($100B) and BMW ($90B). Meanwhile, BYD and Li Auto continue gaining ground, despite limited profitability. The narrative? Investors are chasing scalability, software, and autonomy—not just units sold. But that optimism carries risk. Legacy automakers still generate far more revenue and volume, yet remain deeply discounted due to capital-heavy structures and slower innovation cycles. If you believe in their pivot, there’s value. If not, they risk becoming value traps. Markets today aren’t just pricing fundamentals—they’re pricing disruption narratives. That creates opportunity for those who can cut through the noise. 📈 In my Global Investment Letter and free weekly market comment, I explore these themes in depth—framing global markets through historical and geopolitical lenses and offering actionable investment ideas across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. 📩 Subscribe free to receive my weekly comment and get access to sample issues of the Global Investment Letter—a premium monthly publication for serious investors. 👉 https://lnkd.in/gPUjaqQp Join a global community of informed investors navigating complexity with clarity. #cars #autoindustry #tesla #economy #investing #trading #markets

Bitcoin is up over the last 5 days, while gold has been falling. This outperformance is a departure from the trend year-to-date where gold has been significantly outperforming bitcoin. As I continue to say, both assets embody the sound money principles that investors are seeking during times of uncertainty. But there is one key data point to understand to get an idea of what happens next... Check out the latest edition of The Pomp Letter 👇👇👇 ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on financial markets, business, crypto, and investing.

US exceptionalism has been dividing opinions, but instead of a broad brush a more nuanced take is #equities seem more exceptional than Treasuries and the dollar: S&P 500 is up 15% from its early April intraday trough led by tech, while Treasuries and the dollar largely went sideways. This chart explains why - US #debt/GDP doubled from 60% pre GFC to over 120% now, while US nonfinancial corporate debt-to-profits is unchanged. And #AI.

Gold has been dominating Bitcoin’s performance this year. The precious metal is up 27%, while bitcoin is only up 4% year-to-date. But there is something fascinating happening... investors are pouring capital into the bitcoin ETFs at an unprecedented rate. For example, BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF have now surpassed inflows this year for GLD, the most popular gold ETF. Continue reading to learn more 👇👇👇 ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on financial markets, business, crypto, and investing.

This surge in gold has been unusually persistent — far from typical market behavior. It’s increasingly likely we’re witnessing a broader monetary realignment. As I said before: I wouldn’t be surprised if the US government is the one quietly accumulating gold.

Please take a look at the current forward PE ratios of all S&P 500 stocks below, categorized by sectors and industries, size represents market capitalization (= index weighting). I know what many of you are thinking... these metrics are still close to worthless... that may be true, but at least the analysts have had over a month since „Liberation Day“ to revise future earnings (the „E“ in the „PE“)... and we have to work with some kind of valuation in our micro analysis.. One fact continues to impress me: Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) are among the highest revenue- & earnings-generating companies in the world. And it took more than 25 years, but it finally happened… at 26, AMZN now has a lower forward PE ratio than WMT, which currently trades at 33x. Ten years ago, AMZN‘s PE was 80x higher than WMT‘s PE and five years ago it was still 5x higher. A little more than a year ago, AMZN had closed the valuation gap with WMT to just over 2x. And a couple of weeks ago, AMZN finally saw its forward PE go below WMT‘s. Also interesting to note: Alphabet (GOOG) at 15x, this number used to be a lot higher! And NVIDIA (NVDA) around 20x also looks kind of uncommon… And the (diversified) banks continue to trade at the lowest multiples: JPM at below 13x, BAC at below 10x, WFC at below 11x, C at below 8x and BK at around 11x. These numbers ​​(considered as a group) remain roughly at the level of the ten-year average (in a world of rising PEs). Bergos AG Bankhaus C. L. Seeliger KG #investing #markets #stockmarket Source: finviz (link in the comments section)

GOLD IS OUTPERFORMING THE STOCK MARKET BY A WHOPPING 42.5% SO FAR THIS YEAR 😮 Source: GURGAVIN @gurgavin on X

#CHINA just SOLD 15,000 #BITCOIN, opting to instead buy RECORD amounts of #GOLD Source: Legitimate Targets

⚠️MASSIVE amount of US household wealth has been lost: US household equity wealth has likely dropped by $ TRILLION year-to-date, the most in 3 YEARS. This may lead to further pullback in consumer spending as the top 10% account for 50% of total consumer expenditures. Source: BofA

🔴Executive Order 6102 is an executive order signed on April 5, 1933, by US President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the hoarding of #gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States." ▶️ The stated reason for the order was that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and worsening the depression as the US was then using the gold standard for its currency. ▶️On April 6, 1933, the U.S. government ordered citizens to hand over their gold holdings to the Federal Reserve — or face 10 years in prison and a $10,000 fine ($1,650,000 today). ▶️The main rationale behind the order was actually to remove the constraint on the Federal Reserve preventing it from increasing the money supply during the depression. ▶️The Federal Reserve Act (1913) required 40% gold backing of Federal Reserve Notes that were issued. By the late 1920s, the Federal Reserve had almost reached the limit of allowable credit, in the form of Federal Reserve demand notes, which could be backed by the gold in its possession (see Great Depression). ▶️Executive Order 6102 required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $502 in 2024) per troy ounce 🔴 Since then, the #dollar has lost over 95% of its purchasing power 😱

It feels like everything is up in the air at the moment doesn’t it? But even when everything is in the air, gravity still holds. And just like gravity, 2 economic rules have to hold even at this moment/ especially at this moment: 1/ Current account deficit cannot be reduced without a corresponding fall in foreign financing. Pushing to reduce the trade deficit quickly means the US will find it harder to finance its #debt, especially if unpredictable tariff negotiations dent the confidence of foreign investors that hold 30% of the debt. No Fed cut will prevent long-term yields from rising in that case. 2/ Global supply chains cannot be rewired at speed without major #disruption. Tariffs not only raise costs but can cut critical access and potentially halt production. These 2 economic rules should become deterrents at some point if not already, link to our note in comment.

Is it one of the most important charts to consider? As highlighted by Tavi Costa, #AI alone could drive #electricity demand equivalent to adding another US economy in the next 5 years. Another point that’s probably flying under the radar: look at the gap between the US and China. If onshoring really picks up, the US could be headed for a similar surge in power demand. Who are the potential beneficiaries? Metals, mining, and infrastructure Sources: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital

🔴 Japan rejected the 100-year bond proposal from the U.S. and left without making any deal. The U.S. has $36 trillion in debt.  Over $8 trillion of that is owned by foreign nations. Among those $8 trillion, around $3 trillion is held by Japan, the UK, and the EU—longtime allies of the U.S. America is facing a serious debt problem, and Trump wants to address it. One way to manage the debt is by extending the repayment period.  A 100-year term gives a borrower a very long time to repay. But would you convert your 10-year U.S. government bond into a 100-year bond? Most people would say "No" If you wouldn’t accept it, why would foreign countries? That’s a fair question—but Trump played a strategic card. The Trump administration offered security guarantees to Europe and Japan. In return, those countries would be expected to upgrade their bonds to 100-year terms. It’s like paying for security: buy my bond, lend me money for 100 years, invest in my century-long debt promise, and I’ll guarantee your protection. But Japan apparently didn’t agree and left the U.S. without finalizing a trade deal, despite coming with that intention. Now, if a country like Japan—a close ally often seen as a vassal state of the U.S., with policies made by Washington—won’t accept a 100-year bond, then it’s highly unlikely that Europe will. Nobody wants to own long-term U.S. bonds because they are illiquid.  This means if you want to sell them, you have to sell at a discount—since to get the full repayment, you'd need to wait 100 years, and the future is extremely uncertain.  But the world loves U.S. short-term bills, known as Treasury bills.   They are very liquid—you often get the same or more than you paid for.   On top of that, they currently pay high yields.  A Treasury bill is U.S. government debt with a maturity of under 1 year.  T-bills have unlimited demand.  In fact, the U.S. could convert all of its bonds into bills.  But the catch is that every couple of months, the government would need to auction and reissue the debt again.  If just once the market demands a significantly higher yield, the entire Treasury market could collapse immediately.  That’s why the U.S. isn’t converting bonds and notes into bills.  The first rule of debt issuance: borrow for long, and borrow at low.   Trump understands that well.

Billionaire Warren Buffett retires at age 94. 99% of Buffett’s wealth is not going to his kids. It’s going to charity. Widely considered the greatest investor of all time, Buffett turned a struggling textile mill into a $1.16 trillion empire... without building a single product. He did it by buying businesses, holding long-term, and mastering capital allocation. At the 2025 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, he announced he’s stepping down as CEO. Greg Abel will take over. Buffett will remain as an advisor. - Took over Berkshire in 1965 when it was worth ~$18/share. Today it trades above $600,000. - Built massive positions in Coca-Cola, American Express, Apple, BNSF, GEICO, and more. - Avoided hype, tech fads, and speculation. Focused on value, cash flow, and management quality. - His biggest moves came when others were afraid like buying into banks during the 2008 crash. He lived like no other billionaire, still in the same house in Omaha since 1958, ate McDonald’s, drank Coke, read 5–6 hours a day and rarely used a computer. His investment principles were simple, but brutally consistent: - Margin of safety. - Circle of competence. - Compounding. - Don’t lose money. In 2024, Berkshire paid $26.8 billion in corporate taxes, the largest single-year tax payment by any U.S. company in history, making up 5% of all corporate tax collected in 2024. In this final shareholder meeting, he said: “You don’t need a high IQ to succeed in investing. You need a rational, stable temperament.” The man played one game for 70 years. And he won. If you want to understand money, read everything he's written. Because there may never be another one like him.

This is why the 200 days moving average is so important... If all you did was buy $SPY at the 200-week SMA for the last 15 years… Source: TrendSpider @TrendSpider