David Walker's Linkedin Analytics

Every time the dollar peaks and the commodities-to-equities ratio bottoms, a new cycle begins. This chart overlays the commodities-to-equities ratio (white) with the real trade-weighted US dollar (blue) — and the cyclical pattern is hard to ignore: • 1985: Plaza Accord — USD peak, commodities bottomed, and a decade-long boom in real assets began • 2000: Tech Bubble — dollar peaked again, followed by a massive commodity supercycle • 2025: Tech Bubble 2.0? — same setup: strong dollar, depressed commodity valuations Right now, we sit at another historic divergence. The dollar remains elevated, while commodities are priced near multi-decade relative lows. If history rhymes, this could mark the early innings of a major regime shift — from deflation to inflation, from tech to tangibles. Smart capital isn’t chasing what’s worked. It’s quietly positioning for what’s next. Source: Otavio (Tavi) Costa

Bitcoin is up over the last 5 days, while gold has been falling. This outperformance is a departure from the trend year-to-date where gold has been significantly outperforming bitcoin. As I continue to say, both assets embody the sound money principles that investors are seeking during times of uncertainty. But there is one key data point to understand to get an idea of what happens next... Check out the latest edition of The Pomp Letter 👇👇👇 ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on financial markets, business, crypto, and investing.

US exceptionalism has been dividing opinions, but instead of a broad brush a more nuanced take is #equities seem more exceptional than Treasuries and the dollar: S&P 500 is up 15% from its early April intraday trough led by tech, while Treasuries and the dollar largely went sideways. This chart explains why - US #debt/GDP doubled from 60% pre GFC to over 120% now, while US nonfinancial corporate debt-to-profits is unchanged. And #AI.

‼️ Let's be realistic. Trump 2.0 and the next administrations are never going to become fiscally responsible by cutting spending at the risk of sending the economy into a recession. 🎯 They have no other choice than devaluing the real value of your bonds. Consequence is loss of purchasing power / money debasement for those stuck in cash and bonds. What are the options available to investors / savers? 1) Spend their money now 2) Invest into high quality #stocks because they’re the ones receiving all this excess spending 3) Accumulate store of values

Gold has been dominating Bitcoin’s performance this year. The precious metal is up 27%, while bitcoin is only up 4% year-to-date. But there is something fascinating happening... investors are pouring capital into the bitcoin ETFs at an unprecedented rate. For example, BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF have now surpassed inflows this year for GLD, the most popular gold ETF. Continue reading to learn more 👇👇👇 ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on financial markets, business, crypto, and investing.

Volatility is the name of the game in financial markets for the foreseeable future. For investors, that means adapting to fast-changing, chaotic markets is no longer optional. It's essential. Those who can navigate disorder will outperform. Those who can't will likely struggle to keep up. Learn more here 👇 ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on financial markets, business, crypto, and investing.

This surge in gold has been unusually persistent — far from typical market behavior. It’s increasingly likely we’re witnessing a broader monetary realignment. As I said before: I wouldn’t be surprised if the US government is the one quietly accumulating gold.

Funding secured. Today I am launching a $250 million acquisition vehicle with Brent Saunders in hopes of bringing a profitable company into the public markets. $PCAPU

Further to my Friday's post on Moody's downgrade of the US: Yields on US government bonds are up across the board (Bloomberg table below) -- not dramatic but, especially with the 30-year yield above 5%, enough to amplify the conversation about America's political ability to address its fiscal deficit and debt. #economy #Moodys #markets

Please take a look at the current forward PE ratios of all S&P 500 stocks below, categorized by sectors and industries, size represents market capitalization (= index weighting). I know what many of you are thinking... these metrics are still close to worthless... that may be true, but at least the analysts have had over a month since „Liberation Day“ to revise future earnings (the „E“ in the „PE“)... and we have to work with some kind of valuation in our micro analysis.. One fact continues to impress me: Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) are among the highest revenue- & earnings-generating companies in the world. And it took more than 25 years, but it finally happened… at 26, AMZN now has a lower forward PE ratio than WMT, which currently trades at 33x. Ten years ago, AMZN‘s PE was 80x higher than WMT‘s PE and five years ago it was still 5x higher. A little more than a year ago, AMZN had closed the valuation gap with WMT to just over 2x. And a couple of weeks ago, AMZN finally saw its forward PE go below WMT‘s. Also interesting to note: Alphabet (GOOG) at 15x, this number used to be a lot higher! And NVIDIA (NVDA) around 20x also looks kind of uncommon… And the (diversified) banks continue to trade at the lowest multiples: JPM at below 13x, BAC at below 10x, WFC at below 11x, C at below 8x and BK at around 11x. These numbers ​​(considered as a group) remain roughly at the level of the ten-year average (in a world of rising PEs). Bergos AG Bankhaus C. L. Seeliger KG #investing #markets #stockmarket Source: finviz (link in the comments section)

🚘 Tesla is worth 6x Toyota—yet Toyota sells 10x more cars. What exactly is the market pricing in? As of early 2025, Tesla’s market cap sits near $600B—towering over Toyota ($100B) and BMW ($90B). Meanwhile, BYD and Li Auto continue gaining ground, despite limited profitability. The narrative? Investors are chasing scalability, software, and autonomy—not just units sold. But that optimism carries risk. Legacy automakers still generate far more revenue and volume, yet remain deeply discounted due to capital-heavy structures and slower innovation cycles. If you believe in their pivot, there’s value. If not, they risk becoming value traps. Markets today aren’t just pricing fundamentals—they’re pricing disruption narratives. That creates opportunity for those who can cut through the noise. 📈 In my Global Investment Letter and free weekly market comment, I explore these themes in depth—framing global markets through historical and geopolitical lenses and offering actionable investment ideas across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. 📩 Subscribe free to receive my weekly comment and get access to sample issues of the Global Investment Letter—a premium monthly publication for serious investors. 👉 https://lnkd.in/gPUjaqQp Join a global community of informed investors navigating complexity with clarity. #cars #autoindustry #tesla #economy #investing #trading #markets

🔴 A very important tweet by Musk. Some key takeaways: 1. DOGE has failed. America is addicted to spending. Period. 2. To prevent a collapse, the U.S. must grow nominal GDP rapidly to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio—similar to a bank’s balance sheet growing faster than its bad loans. They probably need to grow nominal GDP at 6–7% annually to avoid a debt crisis. 3. Productivity alone can’t rescue a country from bankruptcy, implying that policy focus will shift to nominal growth rather than real growth. ➡️ Investment implications: When nominal GDP is the target, asset classes that benefit from inflation or monetary expansion (like equities, real assets & stores of value) should be favoured over those tied to real GDP growth. Source: Ritesh Jain

🔴Executive Order 6102 is an executive order signed on April 5, 1933, by US President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the hoarding of #gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States." ▶️ The stated reason for the order was that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and worsening the depression as the US was then using the gold standard for its currency. ▶️On April 6, 1933, the U.S. government ordered citizens to hand over their gold holdings to the Federal Reserve — or face 10 years in prison and a $10,000 fine ($1,650,000 today). ▶️The main rationale behind the order was actually to remove the constraint on the Federal Reserve preventing it from increasing the money supply during the depression. ▶️The Federal Reserve Act (1913) required 40% gold backing of Federal Reserve Notes that were issued. By the late 1920s, the Federal Reserve had almost reached the limit of allowable credit, in the form of Federal Reserve demand notes, which could be backed by the gold in its possession (see Great Depression). ▶️Executive Order 6102 required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $502 in 2024) per troy ounce 🔴 Since then, the #dollar has lost over 95% of its purchasing power 😱

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has destroyed every investing strategy known to man over the last 60 years 🚨🚨 Source: Barchart

🔴 The FT reports that a secret meeting between US and China which took place in IMF basement paved way for tariff deal seen on both sides as a victory 👇 The first meeting to break the US-China trade deadlock was held almost three weeks ago in the basement of the IMF headquarters, arranged under cover of secrecy. "US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who was attending the IMF spring meetings in Washington, met China’s finance minister Lan Fo’an to discuss the near complete breakdown in trade between the world’s two biggest economies, according to people familiar with the matter. The previously unreported encounter was the first high-level meeting between US and Chinese officials since Donald Trump’s inauguration and the launch of his tariff war. The Treasury declined to comment on the secret meeting. The talks culminated this weekend in Geneva with Bessent and He Lifeng, China’s vice-premier, agreeing a ceasefire that would slash respective tariffs by 115 percentage points for 90 days". Link to FT article >>> https://lnkd.in/e_a7Rcix

Billionaire Warren Buffett retires at age 94. 99% of Buffett’s wealth is not going to his kids. It’s going to charity. Widely considered the greatest investor of all time, Buffett turned a struggling textile mill into a $1.16 trillion empire... without building a single product. He did it by buying businesses, holding long-term, and mastering capital allocation. At the 2025 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, he announced he’s stepping down as CEO. Greg Abel will take over. Buffett will remain as an advisor. - Took over Berkshire in 1965 when it was worth ~$18/share. Today it trades above $600,000. - Built massive positions in Coca-Cola, American Express, Apple, BNSF, GEICO, and more. - Avoided hype, tech fads, and speculation. Focused on value, cash flow, and management quality. - His biggest moves came when others were afraid like buying into banks during the 2008 crash. He lived like no other billionaire, still in the same house in Omaha since 1958, ate McDonald’s, drank Coke, read 5–6 hours a day and rarely used a computer. His investment principles were simple, but brutally consistent: - Margin of safety. - Circle of competence. - Compounding. - Don’t lose money. In 2024, Berkshire paid $26.8 billion in corporate taxes, the largest single-year tax payment by any U.S. company in history, making up 5% of all corporate tax collected in 2024. In this final shareholder meeting, he said: “You don’t need a high IQ to succeed in investing. You need a rational, stable temperament.” The man played one game for 70 years. And he won. If you want to understand money, read everything he's written. Because there may never be another one like him.