Blue Sense Digital

Blue Sense Digital helps produce better financial outcomes for eCommerce businesses.

We partner directly with operators to identify and tackle their biggest growth challenges.

Our firm offers both strategic advisory and performance marketing services.

We’re trusted by the likes of:

· Conni
· Abi and Joseph
· Lash Jungle
· GlamSwag
· Part&Parcel
· Kings of Neon
· My Happy Helpers

To produce better financial outcomes, we believe that it's important to understand:

→ the economics of a successful eCommerce business
→ the acquisition model that makes the most sense for your business
→ the interplay between marketing, finance, and operations

And to be able to execute thoughtfully across both performance marketing and conversion-rate optimisation.

We primarily help businesses in the following 3 verticals:

· Consumer Packaged Goods
· Home & Living
· Hobbies & Recreation

We believe in providing education and profit-focused resources to help eCommerce businesses of all sizes to grow.

We'd encourage you to capitalise on this commitment by exploring the following channels:

https://www.youtube.com/@bluesensedigital
https://www.youtube.com/@Blues-Brothers-Podcast

And to meet directly with our co-founder, Sebastian: https://calendly.com/bluesensedigital/exploratory

We promise to honour your time.

Co-Founder & Head of Paid Media

Blues Brothers Podcast

Co Host

Scaling eCommerce Brands Through Profitable Acquisition

Blue Sense Digital helps produce better financial outcomes for eCommerce businesses.

We partner directly with operators to identify and tackle their biggest growth challenges.

Our firm offers both strategic advisory and performance marketing services.

We’re trusted by the likes of:

· Conni
· Abi and Joseph
· Lash Jungle
· GlamSwag
· Part&Parcel
· Kings of Neon
· My Happy Helpers

To produce better financial outcomes, we believe that it’s important to understand:
→ the economics of a successful eCommerce business
→ the acquisition model that makes the most sense for your business
→ the interplay between marketing, finance, and operations

And to be able to execute thoughtfully across both performance marketing and conversion-rate optimisation.

We primarily help businesses in the following 3 verticals:
· Consumer Packaged Goods
· Home & Living
· Hobbies & Recreation

We believe in providing education and profit-focused resources to help eCommerce businesses of all sizes to grow.

We’d encourage you to capitalise on this commitment by exploring the following channels:

https://www.youtube.com/@bluesensedigital
https://www.youtube.com/@Blues-Brothers-Podcast

And to meet directly with our co-founder, Sebastian: 

https://calendly.com/bluesensedigital/exploratory

We promise to honour your time.

Meta just updated their definition of what 'click-through' attribution means. 

Previously, the definition was vague.

Vague enough to assume a click = a website visit. 

It doesn’t. 

The updated wording makes it explicit: click-through results can be credited after any click on your ad (e.g. likes, shares, saves) - not only an outbound click.

Why this matters:

Your “click-through” conversions may include people who never hit your site from a Meta ad.

The solution:

1. Cross-check all results against incremental attribution
2. Run consistent lift studies in Meta
3. Track against aMER and NC Profit Contribution

Nathan Perdriau

Producing Better Financial Outcomes for 8-9 Figure Brands

We shot this in Cape Town with Ibra, our lead strategist at Blue Sense. 

We break down how to choose the right test for your brand and when each method makes sense.

What we cover
1. Incremental “introduce → remove” tests: simple to run, but you must allow a full conversion window and keep the post-test period static or you’ll misread the uplift.
2. In-platform A/Bs: fast and useful for directional reads, but sequencing and audience overlap can mislead you if you judge only by CPA or ROAS. 
3. GeoLift: gold-standard design, but expensive, slow, and harder in Australia due to state clustering and anomalies. 

Design tests around your buying cycle, be patient, and don’t kill top-of-funnel assets just because the last click gets all the credit.

Full video with examples in the comments below.

Blue Sense Pod Ep #1 live 🎉 

Roundtable with Scott, Ibra & Gaby in Cape Town, going through what's changing in eComm as we enter into 2026.

Super excited for some upcoming eps & getting the brains behind BSD on camera.

Spotify & Youtube links in comments below.

PS: Audio's a bit sketchy as we we're recording outside - all future eps are inside 😅

Andromeda is the new buzzword in Meta ads. It is not the new iOS14.

What actually matters:

1. Consolidate your structure. Fewer campaigns, broader audiences, use Advantage+ features selectively.

2. Creative is the targeting. Build assets that convert true cold audiences, not just MOF/BOF.

3. Testing discipline. Fewer, bigger swings across distinct concepts, not 20 micro-variants of one ad.

If an agency says you need an “Andromeda-friendly rebuild,” it's just fear-mongering. These are fundamentals you should already be doing.

I break it down in more detail with examples in the video below. (Check comments)

li_at

JSESSIONID

Talks about #metaads, #ecommerce, and #googleads

If your agency is telling you to discount to increase ROAS... Find a new agency. 
 
Why? 
 
The agency doesn’t understand the impact of discounting on contribution margin. 
 
Let’s run through an example... 
 
AOV = $100 
CM = $50 
Breakeven ROAS = 2 
 
The agency suggests a discount of 30%. 
 
AOV = $70 
New CM = $20 
New Breakeven ROAS = 3.5
 
→ A 30% discount on top-line pricing 
→ Correlates to a 2.5x decrease in contribution margin 
 
This means the agency will need to create a ~2x uplift in ROAS just to maintain the same level of profitability. 
 
Know your financials before blindly discounting. 
 
Your agency should be: 
 
1. Forecasting changes in CM with discounting 
2. Then, structuring offers to maximise CM

If you need a 10+ ROAS to be profitable... 
 
You need a new business model. 
 
→ You're not in the advertising game 
→ You're in the margins game 
 
Whichever brand has the best contribution margins & LTV wins. 
 
They can: 
 
→ Bid more 
→ Spend more 
→ And, scale faster 
 
If you're a challenger brand with <65% contribution margins... 
 
Consider consulting with a fractional CFO before scaling ad spend.

Performance max campaigns are terrible for omni-channel brands during BFCM. Here’s why: 
 
They directly correlate with top-line revenue. 
 
Meaning if revenue increases, performance max results increase. 
 
This means that either: 
 
1. Performance Max is directly responsible for revenue 
2. OR, Performance Max is falsely attributing the revenue 
 
In most instances, it’s the latter. 
 
Why? 
 
We’ve found Performance Max heavily over attributes due to heavy retargeting of existing customers. 
 
Giving you the false assumption that PMax is driving the results in your business. 
 
It’s not. 
 
If you have a Google Ads only agency, it get's worse.
 
The client increases Meta spend, or increases EDM frequency. Then Performance Max ROAS increases. 
 
Performance Max is a direct reflection of everything else in the business. 
 
So... be careful when increasing budgets on Performance Max during BFCM.
 
Gear towards new customer acquisition instead of in-platform ROAS.

Most agencies say “we’re P&L-driven.” Most aren’t. Here’s how to tell:

1. Match platform to P&L

If your Acquisition MER (new-customer revenue ÷ ad spend) is ~3 in the P&L, Meta shouldn’t be claiming a 9.

Switch Meta to 7-day click and find the setting that correlates to your P&L. Now you can trust the platform readout.

2. Fix structure before you fix “attribution”

On Google, you won’t solve it with a single toggle.
Segment brand vs non-brand, control PMax, and exclude existing customers from cold. Then compare against your P&L.

3. Use the P&L as validation

When creative volume goes up (say 50 → 100 new ads), don’t just celebrate higher ROAS.

Check: did contribution profit (CM3: gross profit − ad spend) and new-customer revenue lift on the P&L?

4. Know what to ask your agency to report on
– MER (or aMER for larger brands)
– Contribution profit (CM3)
– New-customer CAC and LTGP:CAC check

If they can’t explain these in plain English, they’re not P&L-driven.

5. Calibrate expectations

Agencies are fuel, not wood in the fire. 

A great partner improves allocation efficiency and speed (think +10–20% to your growth rate), but product and brand are what take you from $6M → $20M.

What your agency should report in plain words
– New-customer money (how much came from brand-new buyers)
– Profit after ad spend
– Cost to get a new customer
If they cannot explain these simply, they are not truly P&L-driven.

Who should do what?
– <$1–2M: learn the fundamentals (a good coaching environment > a mediocre agency).
– $2–5M+: bring in experts, but keep decisions grounded in your P&L.
– At any size: validate every “win” against total profit, not screenshots.

If your agency can’t connect in-platform changes to P&L outcomes, you have a measurement problem.

How to drop CAC by 10% without touching the Meta Ad account:

Reallocate Meta spend to creative production.

Here's a real client example:

$300k per month spend on Meta.

We reallocated $20k from platform spend to production.

~60 new videos plus 20 to 30 statics per month

CPA fell about 10% ($50 to $45), and total purchases increased despite lower media spend.

Rules of thumb:
- At $100k+ monthly spend, allocate 10%-15% to creative production
- At $10k to $40k spend, aim for 20% to 25% or you will starve testing
- Under $5k, the founder or an internal hire should produce content to reach escape velocity

How to know if you're underspending?

Run a simple breakeven test:

1. Pick an amount to reallocate from media to production
2. Estimate the CPA reduction required to hold or grow purchase volume
3. If the expected drop is realistic given your current creative velocity and diversity, reallocate

Most accounts are constrained by creative throughput, not budget. Treat production as part of the media budget, flex it as performance changes, and let diversity of creative do the heavy lifting.

A good reminder to turn off ADV+ creative settings. 

We keep trying to give them a chance, and we get this in return.

Most brands set a static MER target and call it a day. That’s a mistake.

Here’s the playbook we use instead:

1. Separate MER from aMER
 – aMER stays stable (e.g., 2.7× on new-customer revenue ÷ ad spend).
 – MER should move month to month because returning-customer revenue expands and contracts seasonally.

2. Why MER must be dynamic
 – MER = (New-customer rev + Returning-customer rev) ÷ Ad spend.
 – Returning revenue is driven mostly by non-paid levers (product launches, activations, EDM/SMS cadence, loyalty, promos).
 – As returning revenue mix shifts, MER naturally rises/falls even if aMER is unchanged.

3. How to operate throughout the year
 – Lock an aMER guardrail 
 – Flex spend in high-conversion months (Nov, July) spend up until aMER returns to target; in soft months, pull back.
 – Expect a stable aMER line with spend spikes where demand is strongest.

4. Reading the signals
 – If trailing aMER < target → you overspent (or product/creative/merch was weak).
 – If trailing aMER ≫ target → you underspent; you left efficient growth on the table.
 – Use this to grade past months and set next month’s budget.

5. Make your CFO happy (and still be right)

A static MER feels clean on a P&L, but it’s false reality.

Instead, forecast returning-customer revenue, then set a dynamic MER target around your fixed aMER guardrail.

If the model shows MER too low for profitability, don’t just “spend less” - add returning-rev levers (launches, site activations, higher EDM/SMS cadence, customer-only promos) to lift MER while keeping aMER honest.

6. When a static MER can work

Low repeat categories (e.g., some homewares/furniture) with minimal returning revenue. Even then, expect small seasonal tweaks (Nov up, Jan down).

The shift: Run the business on aMER; plan the P&L on MER.

Your post BFCM slump isn’t “the market”. It’s a planning problem.

Here’s what actually happens:

- BFCM pulls future buyers through the funnel in one weekend.
- You empty the pipeline, then Q1 demand falls and revenue dips.

Three ways to avoid the Q1 cliff and keep revenue high:

1. Extend and rotate the sale

Not the best option, but it works. Roll the offer into new messaging: gifting in December, self-treat January, Valentine’s Day, back-to-school. Keep momentum while you rebuild the funnel.

2. Reduce discount depth

You will do less top-line in November, but you will not completely drain your existing funnel. Smaller BFCM discounts mean less post-sale fatigue and more full-price revenue in Dec–Feb. Decide what you prefer: a bigger spike now or a smoother quarter later.

3. Keep Top-of-Funnel alive during BFCM (the best play)

Most brands redirect all spend to mid and bottom of funnel and starve TOF. Keep 15–25% of budget on TOF education to manufacture demand for Q1. You are buying future revenue.

Here's how to execute it:

On creative...

80% of spend on MOF/BOF assets, think:
- Plain offer creative with deadline.
- Your top evergreen ads with an offer overlay.

20% on TOF education to reach net-new audiences. It will look inefficient in November, but it pays you back in Jan–Feb.

On account structure...

- Run TOF and MOF/BOF in separate campaigns.
- Light exclusions on TOF (e.g. 30-day site visitors, all existing customers).
- Keep TOF budgets fixed so they are not cannibalised by retargeting.

How to plan...

- Spend earlier to sell later. Sep–Oct builds the audience that converts in November. Nov–Dec TOF builds the audience that converts in Q1.
- If you extend sales, rotate the angle frequently to avoid offer fatigue.
- If you cut discount depth, forecast the trade-off: lower BFCM peak, higher Q1 run-rate and healthier contribution profit.

If you want my BFCM–Q1 planning framework, creative splits and the exact campaign template, comment BFCM and I’ll send it to you.

Ep #2 of BSD Pod live with Moamen Ibra & Scott Wilkinson on how to test properly for maximising profit.

Links in comments below.

If you are still sending cold traffic to a plain PDP, you are capping scale.

What is winning for us is ad-to-page continuity with educational landers that mirror the angle in the creative.

One value prop per page, story-led copy, objections handled top to bottom, product block at the end.

Two use cases: impulse products that need continuity to convert fast, and considered purchases that need education to shorten time to buy.

This is how US operators break past eight figures; Australia is lagging, but the opportunity is still open.

If 60% of your spend sits on one angle, align your pre-purchase flows to it so the funnel stays coherent.

Stop hunting CRO hacks on a generic template and build angle-led funnels that actually scale cold.

We run through examples in the video below.

Link in comments.

Thanks for having me on the show Edward Sturm - one of my favourite chats.

We go through:
- The role of financial literacy in marketing strategy
- Attribution, geo-lift testing, and understanding real incrementality
- When founders should stop running their own ads
- Creative strategy and how much budget should go to content production
- The truth about TikTok vs. Meta ad performance
- How 7-figure founders can break into 8 figures

Link in comments below.

Traditional funnel marketing is dead (and here's how it will impact BFCM)... 
 
By traditional, I’m referring to TOF, MOF & BOF approaches across Meta. 
 
Here’s why: 
 
#1 - iOS14 caused poor event match rates 
 
iOS14 and recent privacy policies have led to poor on-site match rates. 
 
For example, you’ll notice that your reported ATC’s in Meta are wildly off. 
 
This is because Meta uses attribution modelling to 'essentially make-up' who they believed may have added to cart. 
 
Resulting in incredibly inaccurate targeting. 
 
#2 - Traffic campaigns don’t work 
 
Traditional funnel-based structures rely on traffic campaigns. 
 
Traffic campaigns don’t work. 
 
Plain and simple. 
 
#3 - Hyper-segmented BOF approach leads to high CPM’s 
 
Hyper-segmenting custom audiences spikes CPMs. 
 
Why? 
 
A key variable in CPM predictability is audience size. 
 
The smaller the custom audience, the higher the CPM premium. 
 
In 99% of instances, the CPM premium you pay for hyper-segmentation doesn’t make financial sense.

Daily CAC is a trap for most brands.

Here’s when it works - and when it wrecks your decisions:

#1 Know your time-to-purchase (TTP)
Your decision window should match how long it takes a new prospect to buy after first seeing you.

Here's a rough guide:
<24h impulse (low AOV, TikTok Shop-style): daily CAC can work
2–7 days: weekly reads
7–30 days: monthly reads
30–60+ days (furniture, high AOV): quarterly reads

#2 Why daily reads mislead you

Day 1 spend looks “unprofitable” because most buyers convert on Day 2-5.

Cutting ads on day 1 means you kill winners before conversions start rolling through.

What looks like “Meta learning” is often just time decay through your funnel.

#3 The extreme case: 40-day TTP

If you have a really extended time-to-purchase (say 40 days in high ticket furniture).

Well, you can’t judge January spend by January revenue.

Jan impressions actualise in late Feb to mid-March sales.

Solution: front-load changes in Jan and judge success on a *Q1 CAC*, not 
daily or even monthly screenshots.

#4 How to measure when TTP is long

- KPI on a wider window (monthly/quarterly) aligned to TTP
- Run GeoLift tests: change strategy in State/Region A vs control in B to read true lift in revenue, CAC and new-customer revenue
- Use platform diagnostics (CTR, CPC, holdouts) but validate against P&L metrics (aMER/MER, CM3, nCAC)

#5 Operating rules

- Set decision cadence ≈ 2–3× your median TTP
- Batch big changes at the start of the window; don’t drip them every few days
- Attribute top-of-funnel cautiously (PMax/Prospecting will under-credit when purchase is delayed)
- Trust profit over daily dashboards

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